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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | November Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [month-on-month] | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | November Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised value) [Year-on-year comparison] | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 England | ★★ | Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for October [MoM] | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | October Industrial Production [Month-on-Month] | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | October Industrial Production [Year-on-Year Comparison] | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | October Manufacturing Production Index [Month-on-Month] | Graphical display |
* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day saw a noticeable sell-off of the dollar in response to changes in views on US monetary policy and related indicators. The market is also aware of risk adjustments, with short-term investors reducing their positions being cited as a factor. Today we will be determining whether this trend will continue or calm down for the time being. With the weekend approaching, there is a tendency for rebalancing and position adjustments to occur, and price movements appear to be lacking in direction. We would like to continue to monitor the progress of the information digestion and assume a calm trend.
The previous day, dollar selling spread on the back of falling US interest rates, providing relative support for the euro. Today, we will need to see whether this trend will continue or whether a correction will occur. With monetary policy events looming, we expect cautious reactions to new information. Meanwhile, we must be wary of temporary fluctuations due to position adjustments and rebalancing ahead of the weekend. Overall, while the market is searching for a sense of direction, price movements are likely to be somewhat volatile.
The previous day saw widespread selling of the dollar amid a shift in views on US monetary policy, and the pound was also supported by this trend. Today, we will need to carefully assess whether this weak dollar trend will continue or take a breather. In the UK, caution remains over monetary policy and economic trends, and positive factors are seen as limited. While prices continued to rise from the previous day, they are moving calmly as they seek a sense of direction. In addition, caution is needed regarding position adjustments and rebalancing movements ahead of the weekend.
Australia continues to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy, and the external environment is driven by the sentiment of the US dollar. Risk appetite is unstable, and the market is susceptible to influence from commodity trends and stock market reactions. While fluctuating up and down yesterday, the market remained within a range, with limited directionality. Today, we will need to assess the market's reaction after absorbing the news. In addition, we need to be careful of rebalancing movements ahead of the weekend.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
A cautious view of US monetary policy and speculation about domestic policy were in focus, and the overall market mood prioritized digesting the news. As European trading began, short-term investors began buying, but the market was unable to break through the upper threshold and struggled to grow. The buying momentum did not continue after that, and the market stalled, with some selling on the rebound. Towards the end of the day, there were few new clues, and participants adopted a wait-and-see attitude. As a result, the market continued to move in an undecided direction, and the price range was limited throughout the day.
The market was conscious of the dollar's rebound following the US monetary policy of the previous day, and the pending announcement of inflation figures and current account-related announcements in Europe. The impact of all the news was limited to the market, and did not encourage active trading. As a result, a wait-and-see attitude intensified from European trading hours to US trading hours. The market lacked growth on both the upside and downside, with short-term buying and selling being mixed. As a result, prices remained small throughout the day, with little sense of direction.
The weak UK data, coupled with a growing cautious outlook on the economic slowdown and monetary policy, led to a heavy upside pressure on the pound. Furthermore, uncertainty about the future led to a tendency for position adjustments, and buying did not continue. There were attempts to recover after European trading hours, but a lack of positive factors led to a loss of momentum. As a result, selling remained strong throughout the day, albeit modestly, resulting in a strong correction.
With no major changes in monetary policy seen in Australia and few news emerging in the US, the overall environment continued to lack direction. A wait-and-see attitude prevailed from Tokyo time to European time, with prices only moving in small ranges. As New York time began, US dollar buying became dominant and the Australian dollar was pushed down by selling against the US dollar. However, the downward pressure was limited, and it did not reach the previous day's low. There was some buying back in the closing stages, and as a result, it remained within a range.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Normal hours) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
After the dollar was sold, the correction signs intensified and the market is searching for a direction
Changes in views on US monetary policy and related indicators will likely continue to be a focus of attention.
With the weekend approaching, it's easy for short-term investors to adjust their positions.
Expected range
Around 155.00–156.00
The center is expected to be around the mid-155 yen range
We want to assess the reaction at turning points both up and down
tactics
Range rotation is the basic stance
Selling on rebounds at higher prices, avoiding deep pursuit at lower prices
Don't push yourself during times when prices are slow
trigger
Be wary of a downward acceleration after a break below 155.00
Beware of short-term buying after breaking above 156.00
Focus on movements before and after the release of European and American indexes
Nullification Conditions
When a clear unidirectional movement away from the range continues
When sudden fluctuations in volume occur
If the price movement continues to move against the material
Risk Event
US economic indicator results
Statements by financial authorities
Flow changes due to weekend factors
Position Management
Available in a smaller size than usual
Take profits shallowly and clarify stop losses in advance
Even if you have unrealized gains, be careful about carrying them over to the weekend
Checklist
How much of the impact of the previous day's dollar selling remains?
Are there any flows due to weekend rebalancing?
Has the price movement settled down after the news has been digested?
Market Summary
The dollar continues to sell off on the back of falling US interest rates, while the euro remains relatively stable
With adjustments and rebalancing coming up before the weekend, it is difficult to determine the direction.
With monetary policy events coming up, reaction to new information is likely to be limited
Expected range
The lower limit is around a level that is likely to be considered a turning point.
The upper limit is the most recent high range or around it
Fluctuations within the range are assumed as the basic assumption.
tactics
The basic stance is to buy on dips
Chasing upwards should be limited to short-term reactions and should be avoided.
Preparing to carefully pick up any rebound near the lower end of the range
trigger
Will the price reach a new high during European trading hours?
Early US interest rate movements and dollar reaction
Check whether the initial movement after the announcement of important indicators is biased in one direction.
Nullification Conditions
A clear move below the lower limit of the range
Downward acceleration accompanied by volume
Risk aversion intensifies, with dollar buying becoming dominant
Risk Event
US economic indicators released
Changes in interest rate outlook due to key figures' comments
Accelerating position adjustments ahead of the weekend
Position Management
The size is smaller than usual
Prioritize short-term profit goals
If your assumptions are denied, make sure to withdraw early
Checklist
Confirming the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Verifying whether the initial movements during European trading hours were as expected
Prepare for erratic price movements due to weekend factors
Market Summary
The pound is likely to be supported by the lingering effects of the previous day's widespread dollar selling, but it is also prone to fluctuations as it adjusts before the weekend.
On the material side, fluctuations in US interest rate expectations and economic caution in the UK are intertwined, making it likely that investors will be cautious about following suit.
While we are aware of the upward trend in price movements, we believe that the rebound will be easily erased if buying momentum weakens.
Expected range
Around 1.3200–1.3450
The main trend is to move between the lower 1.3300s and the upper 1.3300s, and any breakouts will likely be subject to further information.
tactics
Based on range rotation, the tempo is emphasized with priority on picking up at the bottom and taking profits at the top.
Do not chase when the price is rising, and choose to wait if the pullback is shallow.
The downward pressure is based on the assumption that buying back is likely to occur, and will be entered in stages after a rebound is confirmed.
trigger
On the upside, we will see if the breakout near 1.3400 is solidified and the short-term buying continues.
On the downside, we expect a break below 1.3280 and a weak rebound, leading to a move to the lower end of the range.
The market is prone to change during the European market and early US trading hours, making it easy to react to headlines about indicators and important people's comments.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks through the 1.3200 level and continues to be heavy on the upside even after it recovers, we will no longer assume a buying cycle.
On the other hand, if the price remains shallow and exceeds the 1.3450 level, refrain from selling and switch to a wait-and-see approach.
Risk Event
There is a risk of sudden changes in interest rates due to statements and indicators related to the outlook for US monetary policy.
Changes in UK economic indicators and policy expectations may lead to price movements driven by the pound.
Be aware that rebalancing and position adjustments with the weekend in mind may result in movements that ignore technical factors.
Position Management
Divide into smaller pieces than usual, and withdraw early if you are at a disadvantage at the start
Profits are taken in stages just before the upper limit of the range, and losses are cut mechanically when the price settles outside the expected range.
If there is unrealized profit, raise it to near the opening price to reduce the chance of missing out when the price turns around.
Checklist
Will the dollar or pound be the driving force? See how US interest rates and stocks react
Identify reversal signs near the upper and lower limits of the range and whether the price will settle after breaking out
Check whether there is any weekend adjustment flow by checking the price ranges when entering Europe and in the early stages of the US market.
Market Summary
Australia will continue to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy, and the main external factor will be the US dollar's sentiment.
Risk appetite is unstable and is likely to be linked to stock market and commodity movements.
The previous day saw fluctuations but remained within a range, limiting the direction of the price.
Expected range
Around 0.6600–0.6700
We expect the price to move between two price ranges where both the ups and downs are likely to be noticeable.
tactics
Range rotation is the basic policy
Don't chase sudden price increases, prioritize checking for rebounds or stalls
trigger
Reactions near the upper or lower limits of the range
Increase in trading volume from European time to New York time
US Dollar Short-Term Directional Change
Nullification Conditions
Clear movement away from the range continues
When price movements continue to be biased in one direction over time
Risk Event
US-related indicators
Stock market fluctuations
Position adjustments with the weekend in mind
Position Management
Considering a smaller size than usual
Unrealized gains are divided and confirmed
If there are any unexpected developments, review them promptly.
Checklist
Is the US dollar trend consistent?
Is it out of step with stocks and commodities?
Are there any irregular price movements due to weekend factors?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
As the market prioritized digesting the news, the recovery was slow and the market continued to lack direction.
summary
A cautious view on U.S. monetary policy and speculation on domestic policy led to a lack of active trading.
The buying back during European trading hours was temporary and did not lead to further upward movement.
Price fluctuations remained limited throughout the day, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo time, the market remained largely unchanged, with the market only searching for a direction.
There were some moments of recovery during European trading hours, but the momentum slowed due to a sense of a turning point.
Trading volume thinned out towards the end of the day, and prices remained flat.
Background/materials
Uncertainty over the future direction of US monetary policy remained a concern
Speculation about domestic policy was intermittently taken into account, resulting in a mix of yen buying and selling.
There was a lack of new materials, so the focus was on consuming existing materials.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The price continues to move within the recent range, making it difficult to see the short-term direction.
During a recovery phase, the heavy upper limit is likely to be noticed
The market continues to struggle near the short-term line.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
In the medium term, the stock price will remain at a high level.
Waiting for information to determine the strength of the trend
The prevailing view is that the range will continue.
Impressions
Market participants appear to be refraining from aggressive position building
A day when the lack of material was felt to tilt in one direction
The market remains calm as we await the next clue.
Trading Impressions
Short-term trading required consideration of the limited price range.
It is important to avoid unreasonable following and to assess the reaction
I felt that careful decisions were necessary while checking changes in the environment.
Checklist
Did you check the reaction after the main ingredients were exhausted?
Are you aware of price movements at the turning points of the upper and lower prices?
Are you refraining from making risky trades until you see a clear direction?
Looking back
With few material clues, the market remained in a stalemate, resulting in small fluctuations.
summary
A day of waiting for new information while continuing the trend following the previous day's US monetary policy
Both Europe and the US adopted a wait-and-see attitude ahead of important indicators
The market environment remains calm with no directional movement observed.
Today's price movements
European trading remained within a narrow range.
Even in US trading hours, movement is limited and short-term trading is the focus
Strong price fluctuations throughout the day
Background/materials
The dollar's recovery following the previous day's US monetary policy was a focus of attention.
In Europe, final inflation figures and current account figures are awaited
The impact of all the factors is limited and will not lead to active trading.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Continued cross-holding at recent highs
The dip and rally are intertwined, leaving little sense of direction.
Short-term indicators remain flat
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The impression is that the market is continuing to adjust to high levels after the rise.
The trend itself is being maintained, but the acceleration is weak.
Impressions
A long wait for ingredients creates a cautious mood
It was not a situation where we had to force our way in the right direction.
Trading Impressions
A day focused on short-term trading, with risk management crucial
Range-awareness measures were required
Checklist
Check the passage status of key materials
Keep an eye on price movements in the high range
Adjust your position until the next direction is clear
Looking back
The upside was limited by weak British indicators, and the day was marked by a small but strong correction with selling dominating.
summary
Concerns about economic slowdown and a cautious stance on monetary policy were noted.
The recovery was limited, and the market continued to lack direction.
Today's price movements
There were attempts to recover during European hours.
Selling was common at the top, and the rebound did not last.
Overall, the market remained within a range.
Background/materials
UK economic indicators weakened, leading to a cautious outlook
Aggressive buying was refrained due to concerns about uncertainty surrounding monetary policy.
Against the dollar, there was little relative news, and the yen was mainly focused on adjustments.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The market was aware of the heavy upper limit near the most recent high.
Short-term charts are prone to sell-offs
There is little sense of direction, so we are waiting for a reaction.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The medium-term trend is maintained, but momentum is slowing
The market continues to fluctuate around key levels
Waiting time for next ingredient
Impressions
Position adjustments were noticeable amid a lack of material.
Price movements were stable and no excessive bias was observed.
Trading Impressions
In the short term, it is effective to not forcefully pursue it, but to check the reaction.
We want to carefully assess changes in the flow over the medium term
Checklist
UK-related indicators and market reaction
Whether or not there is a recovery or stall during key time periods
Volume and price movements around key levels
Looking back
A lack of material led to a lack of direction, and although there was selling during New York trading, the stock remained within a range.
summary
A lack of new news in both Australia and the US led the market as a whole to adopt a wait-and-see attitude throughout the day
Buying and selling changed depending on the time of day, but overall the price movements were calm.
Today's price movements
Traffic continued within a narrow range between Tokyo time and European time
As New York time began, US dollar buying came in, and the Australian dollar's upside was somewhat limited.
The downward pressure was limited, and there were signs of recovery towards the end of the day.
Background/materials
No new clues on Australian monetary policy, so market impact limited
On the US side, there were few high-profile economic indicators or statements from important figures, so active trading was refrained from.
Overall, there was a strong mood of waiting for new information, and movements were centered on short-term flows.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Recently, the price has been moving within a certain range, making it difficult to determine the direction.
In the short term, selling on rallies and buying on dips intersect, and the price range tends to be limited.
Until there is a clear break, attention must be paid to small fluctuations.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
In the medium term, the stock price continues to fluctuate in the high range.
We are currently waiting for information to emerge to determine whether the trend will continue or enter a correction.
There is also a concern that volatility may increase depending on changes in the environment.
Impressions
It was a difficult day for trading decisions as the market was not likely to move in one direction.
The need to carefully track the differences in price movements between different time periods is apparent.
Trading Impressions
It was necessary to avoid taking positions unnecessarily and to respond based on the range.
In short-term trading, it is important to be aware of making decisions about taking profits and withdrawing early.
Checklist
Check important indicators and scheduled speeches by important people in advance
Ability to manage risk assuming a range market
You have the option to wait and see until there is price movement.
FX Journal