Market Summary

Although there was some bargain hunting the previous day, liquidity was low and the price range was limited.

Today marks the end-of-month rebalancing, creating an environment in which sudden flows are likely to create short-term fluctuations.

Japan's price-related indicators and the stance of authorities are keeping prices from rising, while the US market has just returned from a holiday and there are limited clues to draw from.

It is likely that adjustments and wait-and-see behavior will continue in the high range, and reactions to new information will likely move the market.

Expected range

Today's market conditions are favorable for both up and down movements, and although it is unlikely to widen, we expect some fluctuations.

At the lower end, you want to check the depth of the downward pressure while keeping in mind the levels where a pullback is likely to occur.

There remains a zone where it is difficult for the price to return to its upper limit, and the focus is on how much short-term flows will have an effect.

Overall, the basic assumption is that the high price range will continue.

tactics

Today we will focus on range rotation and respond carefully to fluctuations during times of low liquidity.

If there is a pullback, there is room to pick up the stock in the short term, but we will avoid chasing it too far.

When the recovery becomes slow, consider aiming for a slight adjustment, and when the momentum is weak, focus on an early withdrawal.

Prioritize flexibility in your approach to prepare for quick changes of direction.

trigger

On the upside, we check whether the price breaks above the resistance zone in the high range and use this as a basis for determining whether there is momentum.

On the downside, the focus will be on whether the price will break below the zone where pullbacks are likely to occur.

Prices tend to be somewhat volatile during the time when end-of-month flows tend to be concentrated, so caution is required.

The direction of flows after the US market reopens will also likely influence short-term decisions.

Nullification Conditions

If the upper resistance zone is clearly broken and the downward trend continues, the expected range will need to be revised.

If the pullback does not work on the downside and the weak price movement continues, the scenario will be rejected.

If a sudden flow causes a one-way run, tactics will need to be re-adjusted.

If volatility suddenly drops, we may consider reducing our entry altogether.

Risk Event

Changes in the evaluation of price-related indicators in Japan.

The yen's sudden swing was due to comments made by Bank of Japan and government officials.

Large flows due to end-of-month rebalancing.

Sudden changes in US interest rates and concentrated flows after the market holiday.

Position Management

The size is smaller than usual, and the stance is designed to allow for some leeway in case of sudden swings.

Profits will be taken at a low level and secured gradually, assuming market conditions are not favorable for growth.

Stop losses are executed mechanically at points that are clearly outside the expected range.

When the market goes against the trend, we do not try to hold on to it, but rather focus on waiting for the next opportunity to enter.

Checklist

The time period and direction of the end-of-month flow.

Reaction and momentum near the upper resistance zone.

Whether or not there is buying support in the pullback zone.

Market Summary

Although there were some instances of testing the high range on the previous day, liquidity was reduced after the European holiday and the market continued to move in a directionless manner.

Today, European price-related indicators and economic data are due to be released, and there is a tendency for month-end factors and short-term flows to intersect.

While there is a possibility of temporary fluctuations due to index results and rebalancing demand, the focus is on whether there will be a test of higher prices.

While overall price movements have been stable, caution is needed regarding fluctuations resulting from short-term position adjustments.

Expected range

The lower limit is around 1.15

The upper limit is around 1.16

While there is room for a return to highs in the short term, we expect fluctuations to be contained depending on liquidity during European trading hours.

Be aware that if the end-of-month flow is uneven, fluctuations are likely to occur.

tactics

The basic strategy is range rotation

We believe it is effective to avoid excessive chasing while checking the reaction in the high range, and to check whether there is an immediate rebound in the low range.

During times when there is little sense of direction, it is best not to force an investment and wait for liquidity to return.

If the end-of-month flow is strong, it is necessary to manage it so as not to be caught up in short-term fluctuations.

trigger

On the upside, will there be a clear breakout of the high range during European trading hours?

The downward trend is likely to continue as Asia and Europe fall below the lower end in the early stages and the recovery will be sluggish.

We will monitor the tendency of short-term flows to react when price indicators or economic data deviate from expectations.

The timing of major market participants' return after the holidays will also provide clues.

Nullification Conditions

When there is clear selling at a high price and the price is pushed back

If buying support at the lower end is weak and the momentum for recovery continues to be weak

When imbalances in supply and demand at the end of the month occur, making it difficult to apply short-term forecasts

When the flow becomes fixed in one direction due to an indicator

Risk Event

European price-related indicators

Economic data for the euro area and major countries

Sudden flows due to end-of-month rebalancing

Position Management

Be more modest than usual and avoid entering during times of low liquidity

When taking profits, be aware of the most recent reaction zone and refrain from pursuing too deeply.

Stop losses should be based on a clear breakout outside the range, and excessive persistence should be avoided.

Leaves room for immediate response to vibrations that can easily be caught

Checklist

Check the reaction of price indicators and economic data

Is there any imbalance in the end-of-month flow?

Has the reaction in the high and low price ranges changed compared to the previous day?

Market Summary

Although there were instances the previous day when the market attempted to move in the higher direction, the number of participants was limited after European trading hours, and the market continued to show a lack of direction.

Today, there is a high likelihood of a mix of flows typical of the end of the month, and there is a possibility that price movements may be somewhat more erratic than usual.

There was also limited reaction to US interest rate forecasts and discussions related to the UK budget, and the market appears to continue to be in a state where price fluctuations are likely to be suppressed.

Expected range

Today, we expect the price to move within a relatively narrow range centered around the previous day's highs and potential lower limits.

We are keeping in mind that the upside is likely to slow down near turning points, while the downside is likely to find support at the most recent lows.

Just to be safe, we need to pay close attention to temporary fluctuations in the flow at the end of the month.

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on range rotation, and respond based on the assumption that it is difficult to predict the sustainability of either upward or downward growth.

Even if the market resumes testing high prices, we will be cautious in following suit, and will consider short-term selling if there is a pullback.

When a pullback is formed, avoid excessive lots and aim to settle quickly while checking the momentum of the recovery each time.

trigger

On the upside, the short-term turning point is expected to be whether the price clearly breaks above the previous day's high range.

On the downside, whether the price breaks below the lows of European trading hours is likely to be seen as a clue to a reversal of momentum.

In terms of time periods, the impact of end-of-month flows is likely to be felt in the early European markets and as markets enter New York, so caution is advised when reaching milestones.

Nullification Conditions

If the upward test loses momentum and bounces back multiple times just before the milestone, the upward scenario will recede.

If the price does not break below the lower limit and there is little reaction at the pullback point, the view that selling on a rebound is dominant may be undermined.

If price movements become extremely narrow despite month-end flows, keep in mind that the expected fluctuation range will not function as expected.

Risk Event

Headlines related to US interest rate movements and irregular flows due to month-end rebalancing.

Further UK budget-related reports and comments.

Sudden increase or decrease in position adjustments due to weekend factors.

Position Management

The lot size will be kept lower than usual to prepare for sudden fluctuations.

Take profits early, even if they are small, and do not hesitate when prices are sluggish.

The company plans to set stop losses at a level slightly above the milestone and to quickly withdraw from any unintended growth.

Checklist

Is there any impact on the end-of-month flow?

Is the momentum of testing highs and breaking lows continuing?

Is there a bias in liquidity changes during European and New York hours?

Market Summary

In Australia, the strength of inflation indicators and capital investment is a focus of attention, and speculation over monetary policy is supporting the Australian dollar.

In the US, expectations of an interest rate cut remain, and the dollar's recovery has been slow, with the overall market sentiment leaning towards risk appetite.

Although there were instances where the market tested the highs on the previous day, the number of participants was limited after the European market and the market has shifted to a range-bound trading situation with little sense of direction. Today, we believe that caution is needed regarding the flow of funds due to factors at the end of the month.

Expected range

The expected range is 0.6480–0.6620, with price movements expected to be in the high 0.64 range to the low 0.66 range.

We will be building a scenario that assumes temporary fluctuations due to rebalancing at the end of the month, with a focus on pullbacks at the lower end of the range and a tendency for sluggish growth at the upper end.

tactics

The basic stance is to buy on dips, and if there is a downward push to the support zone formed during the previous day's correction, we will consider entering in stages.

On the other hand, we will avoid chasing higher prices at the upper end of the range and will carefully select new positions, keeping in mind that short-term sell-offs are likely to occur.

trigger

The key to the upside is whether the price can break above the previous day's highs and settle between Asian and European hours. If that happens, it will be easier to imagine a shallow uptrend.

On the downside, if there is a clear break below the previous day's support band, we will review the short-term uptrend scenario and check whether there is a strong tendency for a test towards the lower limit of the range.

Nullification Conditions

If the closing price falls significantly below the previous day's low and the recovery is limited, it becomes necessary to set aside the assumption of buying on dips and prioritize the risk of breaking the lower limit of the range.

In addition, if a US index triggers a sharp rise in one direction, followed by a large reversal in the opposite direction, we will consider revising the scenario as this is a sign of a higher risk of a short-term reversal rather than trend following.

Risk Event

Today, intermittent flows are likely to occur due to end-of-month rebalancing, and normal technical levels may temporarily become less effective.

The dollar as a whole is susceptible to fluctuations depending on US consumer spending indicators, inflation indicators, and US interest rates, and we need to be careful of the Australian dollar becoming caught up in this increased volatility against the US dollar.

Position Management

As price movements are difficult to predict due to the end of the month, we will be keeping the size of new positions more modest than usual and will manage them within an acceptable risk level even if an unexpected spike occurs.

We will not be greedy when taking profits, but will take profits at each milestone within the range as a basic rule, and will thoroughly manage orders before and after the announcement of indicators, with stop loss levels clearly defined in advance.

Checklist

Today's price movements and trading patterns compared to the previous day's highs and pullbacks

The direction of US interest rates and stock markets, and the overall reaction of the Australian dollar to them

The strength of temporary spikes before and after the release of major indicators and subsequent pullbacks

Looking back

The Tokyo market fluctuated, while the European and New York markets remained within a certain range with little sense of direction.

summary

Although there were sporadic headlines and comments from key figures related to US interest rates, the reaction was limited, and the market as a whole remained cautious throughout the day.

Domestically, the stance of the foreign exchange authorities was taken into consideration, but this did not lead to any positive clues, and the factors that would have an impact on short-term trends were limited.

With multiple market participants choosing to wait and see, the price range did not widen and a lack of direction continued.

As a result, the price movements were calm with a lot of movement around the key levels, and the range movement was noticeable throughout the day.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo trading hours, there were some fluctuations around key milestones, and although there were some periods when the price range temporarily widened, the trend was limited.

Even during European trading hours, there was little reaction to indices and interest rate movements, and no significant deviation from the range from the previous day was observed.

The direction did not change during New York time, and the reaction to the news remained calm, maintaining a certain price range.

Overall, although there were short-term fluctuations, from a broader perspective, the price continued to move within a range.

Background/materials

Although there was some interest rate-related news in the US, the impact was limited and the impact on price movements was minor.

Although there were sporadic statements from key figures and market opinions, they were not strong enough to influence the market's direction, and a cautious stance prevailed.

On the Japanese side, attention was focused on the stance of the foreign exchange authorities, but this did not lead to any positive developments and the reaction was muted.

There were no major fluctuations in external markets either, and the overall foreign exchange market remained in a wait-and-see mode, which also had an impact on USD/JPY.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, there were many reactions around milestones, and the trend of small fluctuations was noticeable.

Price movements tended to settle around the moving average, limiting short-term momentum.

Volatility was contained, and short-term support and resistance levels became a focus of attention.

In the short term, the range structure with little sense of direction was likely to continue.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, key levels remained in focus, and the price continued to move within a wide range.

The trend indicators showed no significant changes and maintained a stable structure overall.

Takayasu's position has not changed much either, so the situation remains a wait-and-see approach from a medium-term perspective.

There were few clues to determine the direction, and we continued to wait for materials.

Impressions

The reaction to the news was quiet, and the overall market seemed to remain calm.

As multiple markets tended to be in an environment where it was difficult to take risks, USDJPY also showed a calm trend due to this influence.

With important events approaching, people tended to adjust their positions, which limited their reaction time.

Trading Impressions

Although there were short-term fluctuations, it was difficult to determine the direction, and I had the impression that careful entry decisions were often required.

While it was easy to see reactions around milestones, it was difficult to maintain momentum, making it difficult to implement a strategy to increase profit margins.

Overall, a range-based approach was effective, and avoiding deep pursuit was appropriate.

Checklist

Reaffirming short-term and medium-term range structure

Compare key level responses with daily records

Organize so as not to overlook situations where the material's reaction changes

Looking back

While Tokyo and Europe remained weak, New York saw a buying spree and saw a recovery.

summary

In the early stages, concerns over the European economy and cautious attitudes toward policy outlooks limited the recovery, and selling remained dominant for a period.

After that, the market was prone to fluctuations due to a lack of direction due to a lack of US indicators and low liquidity.

During New York trading hours, the market leaned towards buying back, and the market recovered from the downward trend, absorbing the weakness seen during the day.

Overall, despite the various factors intersecting, the market appeared to be calm with buying dominating at the end of the day.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, there was a focus on sell-offs, and the market remained in a difficult position to rise even when trying to move higher.

During European trading hours, there was a lack of direction and selling prevailed at times, leading to a slight pullback.

Once New York trading began, buying became easier, absorbing the downward pressure and leading to a recovery.

Throughout the day, the price movement was in a range with a mix of waiting for a rebound and searching for a pullback.

Background/materials

Weak European consumption-related indicators were a concern, and expectations of sluggish economic growth weighed on the upside.

Although there was speculation about the ECB's stance, there were few clues and it was difficult to come up with a positive direction.

In the US, a cautious stance was seen ahead of the release of indicators, and reactions tended to be mixed amid overall low liquidity.

Due to multiple external factors, it was difficult to determine direction during the day.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

While there was a tendency for selling to rebound in the short term, there was also a tendency for buying to occur at the lower end, resulting in a range-like movement.

Reactions around the short-term line were sporadic, with alternating buying and selling.

The market continued to fluctuate slightly, reflecting the market sentiment of wanting to determine the direction.

In the short term, the market conditions were such that the balance between upside and downside was easily maintained.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, a certain recovery trend and a downward trend continued to coexist, making it difficult to identify a clear trend.

While the rebound of the past few days was taken into consideration, there were times when caution remained on the upside.

The reaction was slow around the mid-term turning point, and it seemed like the company was waiting for more information.

The trend was more of a cross-shareholding rather than a directional one, and a wait-and-see approach was dominant.

Impressions

During the day, there was a mix of news and the balance between buying and selling was unstable and unstable.

There were many short-term fluctuations, and actual demand and adjustment orders influenced the market price at times.

Although buying became dominant towards the end of the day, the overall market sentiment remains cautious.

It appears that the market as a whole is waiting for the next clue.

Trading Impressions

There was a mix of selling on rallies and buying on dips, making it difficult to determine the direction.

It was easy to get caught up in short-term fluctuations, and timing of entries remained difficult.

Although the buybacks during New York time were relatively easy to understand, overall it was a day that required careful management.

It felt like an environment where you wanted to prioritize checking the movement rather than actively aiming.

Checklist

Is there any bias in responses during key times?

Are you overly assuming causality between information and price movements?

Are you entering with unreasonable expectations?

Looking back

In Tokyo and Europe, sell-offs continued to prevail, while in New York, buying was seen but the direction was limited.

summary

UK fiscal issues and US interest rate forecasts were in focus, and the market continued to explore reactions to these news during the day.

In Tokyo and Europe, the recovery phase was slow, and caution remained in testing the upper limit.

In New York, there was a buying spree that cut the lower end, but the movement did not go beyond the turning point and gained momentum, and the price movement remained calm overall.

Today's price movements

The market continued the previous day's trend in the early stages, with a slow recovery, and the market was conscious of the heavy upper limit in Tokyo.

In Europe, there was a lack of direction, and prices mainly fluctuated slightly as investors continued to wait for new information.

In New York, there were times when buying was easy and prices rose above the lower end, but there was no movement that clearly broke through the milestone.

Background/materials

The UK budget remains in the spotlight, with cautious views on fiscal management and growth prospects remaining.

In the US, while interest rate cuts were expected, opinions on the results of indicators were divided, and the direction of the dollar remained uncertain.

The market as a whole remained in a mood of waiting for an event, with most price movements being driven by short-term flows.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, there were times when the price rose above its lower limit, and the ease of buying back was taken into consideration.

On the other hand, the upside was sluggish near the milestone, making it difficult for the stock to grow upward.

Although the short-term recovery trend was maintained, the direction remained unclear.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the stock price has remained within a range, and the trend has remained susceptible to change depending on new information.

Although there was a sense of stability at the bottom, there was a lack of material to aggressively test the top.

To clarify the medium-term trends, it was deemed necessary to take a new look at indicators and policy outlooks in both the UK and the US.

Impressions

Price movements during the day were calm, and there were only a few instances of overreacting to news.

Buybacks and sell-offs were mixed together, leaving a strong impression of a lack of direction.

It seemed like things would likely remain quiet until the next clear decision was made.

Trading Impressions

Reactions were slow around turning points, and there were many instances where aggressive follow-up was required with caution.

While the downside was firm, the upside growth was limited, and the short-term environment favored contrarian trading.

The flow tends to be uneven depending on the time of day, and it was easier to function while waiting for the movement to begin.

Checklist

Check the reaction near the milestone

Organizing the UK and US indicator schedules

Pay attention to short-term flow biases

Looking back

Traffic in Tokyo and Europe was mostly small, but buying was dominant in New York, slightly upping the previous day's high.

summary

While attention continued to be focused on Australian prices, there were many periods when the overall market lacked direction.

In the second half, fluctuations in interest rate expectations in the United States were a concern, and there were times when there was a tendency for investors to pick up on dips.

Although there has been little change in the overall trend, the market remains in a state where short-term supply and demand are prone to small reactions.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, there were few clues and the situation continued to fluctuate within a narrow range.

The same trend continued during European trading hours, with investors more inclined to wait for new information.

As the market entered New York, buying prevailed, and the market saw a slight rise in the previous day's high.

Background/materials

The outlook for monetary policy is being treated with caution as caution remains over price trends in Australia.

In the US, uncertainty about the future was a concern, and the direction of the dollar remained somewhat unsettled.

Changing risk appetite and fluctuations in commodity prices also influenced the short-term movements of the Australian dollar.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The lower end continued to be prone to a certain level of support, and there was a sense that buying would be likely to occur at dips.

Although the short-term recovery trend remains, the balance remains such that selling on rebounds is likely to occur at the upper end.

With small fluctuations in price, the main focus was on confirming the sustainability of the short-term trend.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, there is a lack of clear direction and the price continues to move within a range.

The high and low price range of the past few weeks was easily noticed, and a holding pattern with price adjustments continued.

As a medium-term trend, the company continues to be easily influenced by the external environment.

Impressions

The day saw a combination of small price ranges and up and down fluctuations, indicating the market's caution regarding news.

Although there has been some movement in the short term, the overall situation lacks a sense of big-picture direction.

The impression remains that the market is still sensitive to changes in the external environment, and that its flow is easily affected by any clues.

Trading Impressions

There were periods of time when buying was dominant in the short term due to a movement to pick up dips.

However, there was a cautious attitude towards the recovery, and caution was required in following up.

It seems like it was a day when a response focusing on small movements within a certain price range was appropriate.

Checklist

Check the release time of major materials and market reaction

Confirmation of continuity of short-term trend and strength of pullback

Check the upper and lower limit reactions within the expected range