Market Summary

The previous day, the authorities' concerns about intervention eased somewhat, and the market was dominated by attempts to test the upper limit, leading to a situation in which prices continued to trade in the high range.

With major US interest rates coming up, expectations are likely to fluctuate, and while the dollar is prone to buying at its weaker side, profit-taking is also likely to occur at its higher end.

Domestically, opinions on prices and economic indicators are divided, and the Bank of Japan's stance has not changed significantly, making it easy to focus on relative interest rate differentials.

Today, in light of this trend, we will continue the strong trend from the previous day, but we will need to see whether the price movements in the high range will settle down.

Expected range

While waiting for clues, the price is expected to hesitate to fall from the level seen as a potential pullback point, and sudden selling is likely to be avoided.

The upside is likely to be focused on the previous day's highs and turning points, and if the momentum of the recovery slows down, it is important to be aware of the possibility of a temporary stagnation or adjustment.

Basically, profit taking is likely to occur at the upper limit of the range, and while we expect a trend of testing the pullback at the lower limit, we are also mindful of the possibility of the range expanding depending on events.

In the short term, we will be watching to see where the center of the range for the day will be formed, while checking price movements during Asian hours and reactions after entering Europe.

tactics

Based on the current combination of fundamentals and charts, we would like to respond flexibly by focusing on buying on dips while also incorporating short-term selling on rallies.

If there is a shallow dip during Tokyo hours, consider buying gradually down while avoiding excessive contrarian trading, and if there is a deep dip, you should recheck the time period and the factors.

Considering the risk of stalling at high prices, we would like to prioritize trying smaller lots after checking the momentum and shape of the break.

Overall, we need to be conscious of short-term bets while adjusting position size and holding time in preparation for sudden changes before and after the event, without leaning in one direction.

trigger

The upward trend will depend on whether the price can clearly exceed the previous day's high or a noticeable milestone, and whether it can maintain that level.

On the downside, if there is a clear movement below the previous day's low range or the zone of potential bearishness, this level is likely to be perceived as a signal of an adjustment.

In terms of time periods, the early London flow and the price movements around the US indexes during New York time are important in determining whether there is a trend or not.

If economic indicators or statements by important figures that are likely to affect US interest rates deviate significantly from expectations, it is important to be aware of temporary widening of spreads and volatility.

Nullification Conditions

The upside scenario will need to be reconsidered if the breakout at the high level turns out to be false and the price is pushed back to the middle of the range in a short period of time.

On the downside, if the market rebounds immediately after a temporary break and acts as a support towards the end of the day, the scenario of a correction may weaken.

When sudden price movements occur during periods of low trading volume, the reliability of technical signals tends to decrease, and it is best to review subsequent price movements before reassessing your decision.

If the price continues to move clearly outside the expected range and a trend reversal is confirmed on multiple time frames, it is important to note that the initial assumptions themselves need to be updated.

Risk Event

If the results of indicators directly linked to interest rate forecasts, such as those related to US employment and inflation, deviate significantly from expectations, there is a possibility that the direction of the market will change in a short period of time.

If there are sudden comments related to the Bank of Japan or news about monetary policy, the yen is likely to lead the movement, making it difficult to respond to the situation with technical analysis alone.

When reports emerge regarding verbal intervention or actual operations by foreign exchange authorities, caution is needed regarding sudden fluctuations that may accompany the unwinding of position imbalances.

We must also keep an eye on the possibility that sudden changes in risk appetite, such as geopolitical factors or sudden fluctuations in the stock market, could upset the balance between dollar demand and yen demand.

Position Management

The entry size should be kept slightly smaller than usual, and you should be careful and consider diversifying your entries rather than rushing to add positions before and after events or in high price ranges.

Profit taking is basically settled in installments just before the milestone, and for positions with unrealized gains, you want to limit risk by gradually raising the stop

Market Summary

The previous day saw a preponderance of euro selling, and the market continues to lack direction amid concerns about interest rates in the US and Europe and uncertainty over the economic outlook.

Today, with an event coming up, price movements are likely to be volatile, and short-term pullbacks and pullbacks are likely to intersect.

Buybacks are likely to occur near turning points, making it necessary to carefully monitor the sustainability of the trend.

Expected range

The lower limit should be in the previous day's low range or close to it, while the upper limit should be around the level that serves as a guideline for recovery.

With US indexes coming up, there is room for the range to expand, and the price is likely to fluctuate up and down depending on the factors.

It is necessary to take an approach that does not overly bias and estimates with a wide range of fluctuations.

tactics

The basic strategy is to sell on rallies, but combine short-term buying on dips near turning points.

Avoid following one direction before and after the event, and prioritize participation after checking the reaction.

Don't follow sudden swings, but be aware of entering after the price has been pulled in.

trigger

The breakout is a breakout above the most recent recovery high, confirming a change in short-term trends.

If the price breaks down, we will be watching closely for the possibility that a sell-off will intensify as the price falls below the previous day's low.

The results of US indexes and the reaction immediately after their release will likely influence the direction of the day.

Nullification Conditions

If consecutive bars clearly exceed the expected level, reassess your tactics.

If there is an increase in irregular price movements with long wicks on both the upside and downside, pause directional assessment.

When trading volume is low and price movements are volatile, the reliability of the signal is reduced.

Risk Event

US employment and economic indicators

European PMI and price-related indicators

Statements by important figures and sudden geopolitical factors

Position Management

The size will be lighter than usual to prepare for sudden changes before and after the event.

Set a short-term profit taking period and prioritize closing the position once the milestone is reached.

Place stop loss outside the nearest milestone to avoid excessive durability.

Checklist

US and European interest rate forecasts and today's indicators

Reactions after reaching milestones and strength of buybacks and sellbacks

Whether or not the high and low prices are updated and the sustainability of the price movement

Market Summary

In the UK, speculation continues about when interest rates will be lowered, while in the US, interest rate expectations remain volatile ahead of major indicators.

Selling was dominant on the previous day, and the market was aware of a weak recovery near the turning point.

With an event coming up today, the market is prone to short-term fluctuations depending on the material.

Expected range

The lower limit is expected to be around 1.30 and the upper limit around 1.32.

Reactions tend to occur around the turning points, and there are still instances where it is difficult to extend either up or down.

Sudden indicator results may temporarily cause unexpected spreads.

tactics

Basically, we are assuming a sell-off and would like to carefully check the return to the turning point.

It is safe to consider buying only on short-term dips while assessing the reaction after the event has passed.

In times when there is little sense of direction, it is also an option to wait and see rather than trying to follow the trend.

trigger

On the upside, we will check whether there is a breakout above the 1.32 level and determine the short-term trend depending on the reaction.

On the downside, the focus will be on whether the price movement will strengthen towards breaking below 1.30.

In terms of time periods, short-term fluctuations are likely to continue around the beginning of the European session and around the time of US indexes.

Nullification Conditions

If the closing price clearly breaks above 1.32, the assumption of a pullback sell-off will weaken.

If there is a strong rebound around 1.30, we will need to reset the short-term downward bias.

If the direction suddenly changes after the indicator, the previous scenario will be reset.

Risk Event

Key US data results could significantly shake interest rate expectations

UK inflation and employment updates will influence interest rate cut timing

Monetary policy statements can cause sudden fluctuations

Position Management

The size will be smaller than usual to prepare for sudden changes before and after the event.

Profit taking will be divided into short-term milestones and adjusted based on the assumption that the market will not grow.

Stop losses early when a turning point is clearly exceeded to reduce the risk of a reversal.

Checklist

The impact of UK and US index results on interest rate forecasts

The strength of the reaction around 1.30 and 1.32

Changes in price movements before and after the event and whether volatility will increase

Market Summary

The previous day, speculation about US monetary policy and risk aversion were in focus, and the Australian dollar continued to struggle to recover.

With related indicators due to be released today, the direction of the market will likely be influenced by the trend of the US dollar and market sentiment.

Resource market conditions and China-related news also have a large impact on the market, making it an environment prone to short-term fluctuations.

Overall, the market appears to be in a state where a cautious stance is likely to continue.

Expected range

The lower limit is a level close to the previous day's low price - a price range that is prone to downward fluctuations

The upper limit is a level where it is easy to see a recovery - the upper limit is close to being heavy

Actual demand and flows waiting for indicators are likely to enter, so growth is likely to be limited

In the short term, it is expected that the market will fluctuate up and down, with no clear direction.

tactics

Resale

We will carefully monitor short-term recovery and consider entering at higher prices.

As the market tends to wait for new information, it is important to prepare for sudden fluctuations.

Don't force yourself to go up and down, but maintain a stance that targets the moment when there is a clear reaction.

trigger

The breakout was a clear breakthrough near the previous day's high.

The downside is due to a break through the low range or the trend immediately after the US index.

US dollar-led fluctuations and resource price reactions are likely to trigger market movements

Pay attention to the direction formation during the early part of the Asia-Europe period

Nullification Conditions

A price movement that breaks above the previous day's high and settles

A clear trend of Australian dollar buying prevailing after US indicators

The recovery in resource markets is supporting the Australian dollar

A situation where the trend of cutting up the lower limit is dominant on short-term charts

Risk Event

Release of US-related indicators

Australian and Chinese economic indicators

Sudden changes in flows caused by shifts in sentiment in major markets

Avoiding sudden risks due to geopolitical risks

Position Management

The size will be lighter than usual, and additional adjustments will be avoided before and after the announcement of the index.

Take profits by dividing them into short-term recoveries or milestones, and be mindful not to be greedy.

Stop loss is executed when the trend clearly exceeds the upper limit of the return.

In preparation for unexpected fluctuations, we will thoroughly set stop-loss orders.

Checklist

USD Trends and Reaction to US Indicators

Australia-China related news and fluctuations in resource markets

Check price movements at the top of the short-term chart

Looking back

Buying was ahead in Tokyo, and despite temporary selling in Europe, buying back came in in New York, and the day ended with prices maintaining a high range.

summary

The market was supported by the interest rate differential as speculation about US monetary policy continued to be a factor.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan continued to maintain a cautious stance, and the market was favorable for buying in a downward pressure on the supply and demand side.

The previous day was characterized by a strong buying spree despite fluctuations.

As a result, the stock price remained in the high range, and although the direction was limited, it appeared to follow a stable trend.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, buying was dominant and the market was aware of the firmness of the lower end from the beginning.

Although selling temporarily intensified in Europe, the momentum did not last long and the market recovered quickly.

In New York, there were times when the market was pushed down by the influence of indicators, but buying occurred at the lower end, and overall the turmoil was limited.

Towards the end of the day, the price movement returned to a calm state, and the market closed at a high level.

Background/materials

In the United States, a cautious view of monetary policy remains, and expectations of lower interest rates are fading, supporting the dollar.

Domestically, the Bank of Japan has not significantly changed its stance in light of price trends, and there is little positive news for the yen.

The interest rate differential between the US and Japan was a major consideration, and overall flows remained lopsided throughout the day.

On the supply and demand side, buying occurred at the dip, and there was a trend to prevent the decline from spreading.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, prices will continue to trade at high levels, with heavy upper limits and firm lower limits coexisting.

The market recovered quickly after the pullback, confirming that it was in a condition where it was easy to absorb short-term downward pressure.

Although there is a lack of direction on the short-term time frame, the composition is such that the bottom price is likely to rise.

Although there were some sudden fluctuations, the price movement returned to a stable state towards the end of the day.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, prices will continue to remain in the high range, and the overall trend is to explore the upper limit of cross-shareholdings.

The lower limit has been supported multiple times, and the strength of the pullback is once again being recognized.

While the price continues to test the upper resistance zone, the momentum to break out is limited

In the medium term, the price will continue to move within a range, and we are currently assessing its direction.

Impressions

Although there were ups and downs on the previous day, the overall market sentiment remained calm, and there was no impression of excessive imbalance.

Judging from the buying back, supply and demand are stable and there is limited concern about the downside.

On the other hand, there is also a sense of weight on the upside, so we need to continue to monitor the trend without rushing.

It is necessary to not be swayed by short-term trends, but to take a broader perspective and grasp the trends.

Trading Impressions

Buying is likely to occur during pullbacks, making it an environment where short-term rotations are easily accommodated.

On the other hand, there is some sluggishness on the upside, so caution is needed in determining the timing of follow-up.

Although there were some situations that required a quick response in the short term, overall it was possible to respond within a reasonable range.

Assuming a lack of direction, the flow is to avoid excessive positioning.

Checklist

Will there be any changes in flows due to the influence of US indicators?

Strength and weakness of selling pressure during European trading hours

Degree of continued cross-holding at high prices

Looking back

It was a day where the market fluctuated between ups and downs amid a mix of information, and the daily chart showed little substance.

summary

The market was struggling to find direction due to uncertainty over US monetary policy and reports on the economic outlook in the eurozone.

Selling was ahead in Tokyo, buying temporarily picked up in Europe but did not continue, and there were instances of buying back in New York following the indicators.

Short-term flows were subject to change, and the overall trend lacked strength.

Today's price movements

In the early stages, there were times when sell-offs were dominant, and the battle for the market near the turning point continued with buying and selling intersecting.

Although a temporary buying rally was observed during European trading hours, the trend did not continue and the market was pushed back again.

In New York, the dollar weakened slightly following the results of the index, and there were times when the euro was more likely to be bought.

Background/materials

Continued uncertainty over US monetary policy led to market fluctuations in response to interest rate movements.

In the eurozone, economic indicators and price-related information were closely watched, and a cautious stance on the economy was observed.

The flow of each indicator is prone to change, and short-term buying and selling has widened the swings in price movements.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The daily chart showed a small body, and in the short term the market conditions were a mixture of selling and buying back.

Near the turning point, rebounds and pushbacks alternated, and price movements remained difficult to determine direction.

Short-term indicators are not overheated and are prone to fluctuations depending on the flow.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, there is a sense of gradual selling pressure, and selling is likely to occur at the upper end.

On the other hand, there has been some buying back at the lower end, and the price continues to move within a range.

It is easy to fit into the central band of cross-shareholding, making it difficult to grasp a clear direction.

Impressions

It was a day where the combination of factors was complex and short-term buying and selling was likely to influence price movements.

Even though there were fluctuations up and down, they were not very persistent, and the market seemed to remain in a state of flux throughout the period.

There were many key moments of attack and defense, and it was a time when we needed to wait for a clear direction.

Trading Impressions

The short-term trend was prominent, and it was necessary to carefully assess the reaction of the pullback and rebound rather than following suit.

Because it was difficult to determine the direction, it was necessary to avoid chasing too far and to make decisions to close positions frequently within a certain price range.

From a medium-term perspective, it would be best not to chase fluctuations too hard, but to carefully check the reactions of the major zones.

Checklist

Check market reaction to US interest rate trends

Organizing information related to the eurozone economy and prices

Identify signs of short-term flow imbalances and sudden fluctuations

Looking back

As weak UK data was brought into focus, selling on the rebound took the lead, and although there was buying in Europe, the upside did not increase. In New York, the weakening of the dollar following US data led to buying, but growth was limited.

summary

Throughout the day, cautious views remained about the UK's future, making it difficult for aggressive buying to spread.

Although buying temporarily became dominant due to the influence of US indicators, the extent of the rise was limited by continued selling on the rebound.

The price movement lacked direction, and there was a noticeable trend of fluctuating up and down depending on the news.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, selling was the focus, with investors focused on a rebound and the heavy upper limit.

In Europe, buying back took place, turning the tide in the short term, but caution over UK data remained and the momentum did not continue.

In New York, the dollar weakened slightly in response to US indicators, and there were times when buying of the pound was dominant.

Background/materials

The slowdown in UK inflation continues to be a concern, and a cautious outlook for the direction of monetary policy is spreading.

Economic indicators were also weak, weighing on the outlook for businesses and households.

The strength of the dollar fluctuated depending on the results of US indicators, which affected the overall flow of currencies.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, price movements continued to be capped, and selling pressure on rebounds became dominant.

There was a temporary buyback, but profit-taking was likely to occur at high prices, leading to a tendency for prices to fall back.

Short-term trends are prone to change depending on the material, and movements that lack continuity were noticeable.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, it is difficult to determine the direction, and although it is trying to move up and down, it has not yet made a decisive breakthrough.

The upward momentum weakens near the highs, and there is a range-like structure with some buying demand at the lows.

In the medium term, we will continue to wait for the accumulation of information, and it will be difficult to see a clear advantage emerging.

Impressions

It seemed like a day where the flow was easily interrupted due to a mix of UK and US materials.

It appears that the market is easily influenced by short-term movements and is centered around position adjustments.

With the strength or weakness of the information unclear, I felt it was necessary to carefully assess price movements.

Trading Impressions

It was difficult to establish a strong sense of direction, and I had the impression that there were many instances where the company was unable to ride short-term trends.

We struggled with the environment where selling on rallies and buying backs were mixed and the dominance was easily changed.

I think it would have been better to not push too hard and focus on taking profits early.

Checklist

Changes in trends due to results from UK and US indicators

Which way did the momentum shift between selling and buying back?

Flow bias in high and low price ranges

Looking back

Tokyo and Europe showed a lack of direction, with temporary buying following the New York index, followed by selling, resulting in the market closing below the previous day's low.

summary

The market reacted strongly to news throughout the day, with short-term fluctuations being prominent.

In New York, developments in the US weighed on the Australian dollar, limiting its recovery.

The price continued to trade in the low range towards the close, and the stock ended below the cross-shareholding level.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo and Europe, the market was dominated by cross-shareholdings with small fluctuations, making it difficult to create a positive direction.

In New York, the Australian dollar was bought in response to the results of the index, but this was not sustainable and selling intensified again.

In the second half, the battle continued with the previous day's low price in mind, and most of the price movements were in the low range.

Background/materials

Attention was focused on Australian and US economic indicators, creating an environment prone to short-term fluctuations before and after their release.

US interest rates continued to restrain the Australian dollar from recovering, and the dollar's strength influenced the market.

There was also a tendency for the flow to be biased due to position adjustments ahead of the weekend.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the recovery phase was likely to be suppressed, and the heavy upper limit was noticed.

Having broken below the previous day's low, the battle for near-term support continues

The short-term line showed continued weakness, and there were many instances where the rebound did not continue.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the mid-term, the price continued to move near the bottom of the range, making it easy to notice a loss of balance.

The difference in policy stance between Australia and the US has affected the medium-term direction, leaving a slight weight on the cross-shareholdings.

The lower end of the main range is being consolidated, and the trend appears unstable on the daily chart.

Impressions

There were many instances where the materials reacted strongly, and the flow of the day changed easily in a short period of time.

There were limited opportunities to buy the Australian dollar, and it seems that the US market had a strong influence on the overall trend.

In times of uncertainty, there were times when investors showed signs of being cautious, and the market proceeded cautiously.

Trading Impressions

The rebound phase is unlikely to last long, and it seems that short-term abandonment is required.

The strength of selling was greater in the battle for lower prices, and following suit required careful judgment.

When aiming for a short-term recovery, it seems like the structure was such that taking profits early would be effective.

Checklist

Fluctuations before and after the release of the index and the persistence of the reaction

The impact of US interest rate movements on the Australian dollar

Flow bias due to weekend factors