Market Summary

The previous day, dollar selling was dominant due to uncertainty about US indicators, and USDJPY was seen as having a heavy upper limit.

With limited clues available today, it is difficult to determine the direction, so we need to carefully monitor interest rate trends and overseas flows.

It is difficult to predict rebalancing demand due to weekend factors, and we must continue to be vigilant about the tendency for short-term fluctuations to occur.

Expected range

The lower limit is at a level where it is easy to confirm stability

The upper limit is a psychological turning point where the market is likely to be weighed down.

Overall, the composition should be conscious of the range of around XX to XX.

tactics

Today, we will focus on range rotation and maintain a stance of avoiding sudden fluctuations.

If the upside and downside are sluggish, consider short-term contrarian strategies.

During times when there is no movement, we prioritize the decision not to forcefully build up positions.

trigger

In the upward direction, we will confirm the change in trend when the price clearly breaks above the most recent high.

If the price breaks below a potential support level, we will determine whether the correction will expand.

The results of US indexes and interest rate fluctuations before and after their release will determine the short-term direction.

Nullification Conditions

If a strong trend that clearly deviates from the central band continues, reset the expected range.

We will also review the scenario if the market continues to move in one direction for a long period of time amid thin trading.

If unexpected news emerges in overseas markets and the flow suddenly changes, we will withdraw our original tactics.

Risk Event

US retail-related indicators

Statistics to check price trends

Flow factors affecting weekend supply and demand

Position Management

The size is smaller than usual, and it remains within a range that can withstand short-term fluctuations.

Take profits early, even if it is small, and liquidate once the price movement stops.

Stop losses are mechanically executed at points outside the central band, and excessive pursuit is avoided.

Checklist

Check the range of interest rate fluctuations and their reaction before and after US indexes

Monitor whether the flow of foreign investors is biased

Regularly check for weekend adjustments

Market Summary

The dollar weakened the previous day, supporting the euro and continuing the upward trend, but further confirmation of new factors is needed to maintain momentum.

In Europe, price and growth indicators are being confirmed at the same time, and in the US, inflation-related announcements continue, so the market environment is one in which relative interest rate expectations are likely to influence the direction.

Risk appetite and adjustment expectations are likely to clash, and with weekend flows also coming into play, we need to be careful of short-term fluctuations.

It is an environment where buying back and profit-taking are likely to be mixed, and prices are likely to fluctuate either up or down.

Expected range

The lower limit is a support level with an eye on the early to mid 1.16 range.

The upper limit is the zone where sell-offs are likely to occur between the late 1.16s and just before 1.17.

It will be difficult to jump either up or down, so you should be careful of short-term biased price movements.

It is important to take into consideration that weekend-specific adjustments are more likely to be made.

tactics

The basic approach is to focus on range rotation, and only respond by checking the direction when new information emerges.

Since the upper limit is heavy and the lower limit is firm, it is effective to avoid leaning too much in one direction.

The price range was adjusted conservatively, assuming both buying on dips and selling on rallies.

In the short term, we will not get too carried away by the momentum of price movements, but will prioritize management that prepares for the risk of a reversal.

trigger

On the upside, we will see if a break above the high 1.16 range will lead to buying back.

On the downside, we will focus on maintaining the level around 1.16, and if it breaks, we will observe whether profit-taking will occur.

Volatility tends to increase around the time when U.S. inflation-related indicators are released.

Also, be careful of sudden fluctuations due to statements or headlines.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to fall below 1.16, expectations of a pullback will be tempered.

On the other hand, if the price clearly exceeds 1.17, a strategy based on selling on a rebound is likely to fall apart.

If the price movement continues to be too one-sided, reconsider the range assumptions.

If there is a sudden change in short-term performance, refrain from following suit.

Risk Event

A US inflation-related indicator.

Updated data on European prices and growth.

Position adjustment trends typical of weekends.

A sudden statement by an important person.

Position Management

The size is set smaller than usual to make it easier to respond to changes in direction.

The basic rule is to take profits shallowly, and secure rewards by attracting and entering.

When cutting losses, use the most recent milestone as a basis to avoid excessive persistence.

Carryover risk will also be taken into account over the weekend.

Checklist

Is there a growing bias in inflation indicators and interest rate forecasts?

Is the 1.16 level continuing to act as a pullback?

How much selling pressure remains on the rebound before 1.17?

Market Summary

UK economic indicators continue to be sluggish, making it difficult to gauge the direction of policy.

In the US, uncertainty surrounding consumption and prices is a concern, and the market remains prone to a mix of dollar recovery and adjustment.

The previous day saw a recovery in all major currencies due to the prevailing dollar selling trend, but we must continue to be cautious about fluctuations caused by weekend flows.

While the currency pair has been testing the upper limit, there is a tendency for sell-offs to remain, so we need to carefully monitor the reaction to the news.

Expected range

The lower limit is near 1.31, which may see a temporary pullback.

The upper limit is around 1.32, which is likely to be used as the upper limit in a recovery phase.

In a broad sense, we should keep in mind that the exchange rate will be between the upper 1.30s and lower 1.32s.

It is important to note that the widening of the price range is likely to be influenced by the results of US indexes and the weekend adjustment flow.

tactics

The basic strategy is to focus on selling on rallies and consider taking advantage of short-term rebounds to enter the market.

We will avoid excessive following and will respond carefully while checking whether there is any new information and the smoothness of price movements.

Avoid excessive selling when prices are at the lower end of the market, and be flexible in your decisions, while also taking a wait-and-see approach.

While taking advantage of the ups and downs of the range, we will maintain a cautious stance until a sense of direction emerges.

trigger

The target for a breakout is around 1.32, and if there is a clear movement above that, we will consider reconsidering the pullback selling.

A break below 1.31 is likely to signal a short-term change in the trend.

Prices tend to fluctuate around the time of the release of US indexes, so you need to be particularly careful about the reaction immediately after.

Liquidity is low during Asian trading hours, so preparations are needed for wider price ranges after entering Europe

Nullification Conditions

If the breakout above the 1.32 level becomes solid, we will be forced to adjust our sell-on-retardation strategy.

On the downside, if a bounce around 1.31 cannot be confirmed, the possibility of a pullback will weaken.

If price movements are unresponsive to factors and lack direction, it is necessary to reconsider your tactics.

When weekend flows are unexpectedly biased, the assumptions of short-term strategies tend to collapse.

Risk Event

US price-related indicators

US consumption-related indicators

Statements by Western dignitaries

Position Management

Lot size will be set lower than usual to prepare for sudden price fluctuations

Take profits in short increments and try to minimize the risk of reversal.

Place stop losses shallowly to detect changes in direction early.

If the price remains stuck between the high and low ranges for a long time, refrain from aggressive trading.

Checklist

Prioritize checking the dollar's reaction after US indicators

The upper limit around 1.32 and the trading volume

The momentum of breaking 1.31 and whether there will be a pullback

Market Summary

While Australian employment-related indicators show signs of strength, uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy remains, making it difficult to gauge the direction

The previous day saw a sell-off after a lead in buying, and the market was aware of the heavy upper limit.

Weekend flows also affect the market, making it prone to short-term fluctuations

Sensitive to changes in external factors, and price movements are likely to widen depending on the material.

Expected range

The lower limit is expected to be around 0.65

The upper limit is approximately 0.66

The upside is gradually becoming heavy, so be careful of the slow recovery

It's difficult to go downhill, but be wary of joint cracks

tactics

Basically, respond carefully, focusing on selling on rebounds

Don't follow the sudden rebound, wait until the rebound stops before participating

Buying on dips should be limited to a short period of time unless there is evidence to support it.

Emphasis on local momentum over overall flow

trigger

Reconsider selling on rebound above 0.66

Check whether the downward pressure will accelerate if the price breaks below 0.65

Reactions to China-related indicators during Asian hours

Beware of volatility before and after US index releases

Nullification Conditions

As the price settles in the 0.66 range, the assumption of a heavy upside collapses

If the rebound strengthens after breaking 0.65 and a pullback becomes apparent

When the unidirectional flow of external material continues

A situation where a major index reacted in the opposite direction to what was expected

Risk Event

China's industrial production and consumption-related indicators

US monetary policy-related statements and interest rate trends

Imbalance in supply and demand due to weekend rebalancing

Fluctuations in times when large flows are likely to occur

Position Management

Size smaller than usual

Take profits shallowly and prioritize withdrawal when the market turns around

Loss cuts are executed mechanically based on milestones

When unexpected sudden fluctuations occur, reduce your position temporarily

Checklist

Check China-related indicators and AUD's reaction

Understand fluctuations in US interest rates and the strength of the dollar

Check whether there is a bias in weekend flow

Looking back

In the second half of the day in Europe, dollar selling was ahead due to a decline in US long-term interest rates, while buying prevailed in New York, resulting in a volatile day.

summary

During European trading hours, the market weakened slightly as investors took notice of falling interest rates, making it easier for the dollar to be sold.

In New York, the market rebounded, and there were signs that the downward pressure experienced during the day had been almost completely eliminated.

Overall, the trend was mainly adjustment based on interest rates, and the sense of direction was limited.

Today's price movements

The downward trend continued into the latter half of the European session, with recovery slow at key junctures.

There was a buying spree early in the New York session, and the market regained its composure while absorbing the pressure from the first half.

Although there was a certain degree of up and down fluctuation, the market remained in a stable zone towards the end.

Background/materials

US long-term interest rates fell during European trading hours, triggering dollar selling.

In New York, interest rates have stopped falling, and risk trends have also led to easier buying.

Interest in Japanese and US monetary policies remained strong, with comments and interest rate forecasts influencing price movements.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

There were times when the price fell below the short-term line due to downward pressure during European trading hours, but it rose above the line again due to a rebound in New York.

On the upside, the most recent high was in focus, and there were signs of the price being pushed back without being able to break through.

In the short term, fluctuations continued, with price movements lacking direction.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The medium-term line continued to show a gentle cross-pollination, with the trend being conscious of the upper and lower milestones.

At the pullback, a medium-term support zone came into play, triggering a rebound.

On the other hand, there was a clear upper limit, and many people believed that material support was needed to break through it.

Impressions

The market remained sensitive to interest rates, making it difficult to determine direction throughout the day.

The trend shifted in Europe and New York, with the impression being that short-term investors were the main drivers of movement.

The more scarce the information, the more likely price movements were to fluctuate, requiring careful judgment.

Trading Impressions

The downward pressure in Europe was difficult to follow, and there were times when the recovery was noticeably slow.

It was easy to get on board with the buying trend in New York, but the environment made it difficult to follow suit too much.

There were many periods of fluctuation, so risk management had to be prioritized.

Checklist

Check for changes in interest rate trends

Pay close attention to reactions near the upper and lower milestones

Beware of changes in trends in Europe and New York

Looking back

In the latter half of the European session, the dollar was sold due to falling interest rates, and then there was a back-and-forth buying in New York.

summary

Interest rates and sentiment were key drivers, providing early support for the euro.

From the middle of the day onwards, fluctuations in stocks and bonds became a focus of attention, and short-term position adjustments became dominant.

There was some buying back towards the end of the day, and the euro was unable to continue to rise and remained stable.

Today's price movements

During Asian trading hours, the market lacked direction and continued to move within a limited range.

During European trading hours, falling interest rates led to dollar selling, and the euro gradually rose from its lower limit.

During New York time, the dollar was bought back in line with fluctuations in other markets, and the flow became dominated by movement.

Background/materials

Fluctuations in US interest rates were a major theme, with the downward trend initially weighing on the dollar.

New information from the European side was limited, and fluctuations in risk appetite influenced short-term movements.

In New York, investors were aware of the unstable trends in stocks and bonds, and the overall direction of currencies was sluggish.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the price continued to move within a range, maintaining a certain lower limit while suppressing the upper limit.

Around the turning point, selling on rallies and buying on dips intersected, making it difficult to determine a clear direction.

The oscillators moved mostly within the neutral zone, and momentum was a mixture of strong and weak.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market maintained a gradual recovery trend, but remained conscious of the upper resistance zone.

A certain support band remained in place, and the market remained prone to rebound even during downtrends.

The medium-term moving average was somewhat flat, and the trend was unclear.

Impressions

The external environment, particularly interest rates, continued to fluctuate, and short-term price movements appeared to be fluid.

The euro was seen alternating between buying and selling, making it difficult to see a clear direction.

It was a day with little material, and I felt that the market was sensitive to fluctuations in other markets.

Trading Impressions

The price range was limited, and trading was mainly focused on picking up short-term reactions.

There was a lack of sense of direction, and there were many occasions when I felt it would be better to avoid trying to follow too closely.

It was necessary to carefully adjust our stance in line with interest rate fluctuations.

Checklist

Linkage between interest rates and other markets

Functions of support belts and resistance belts

Whether or not it is possible to respond to short-term fluctuations

Looking back

The market fluctuated in the wake of news of the UK tax policy and the fall in US interest rates, but it was a day lacking in direction.

summary

In the early European session, news about the UK tax system attracted attention, and fluctuations linked to interest rate movements were noticeable.

US long-term interest rates have fallen since the middle of the European session, creating an environment conducive to dollar selling.

However, no major trends were formed, and the high and low prices continued to narrow gradually, resulting in a holding pattern.

Without showing a clear direction until the end, the market remained dominated by short-term fluctuations.

Today's price movements

In the early European session, the pound fluctuated due to fluctuations in UK interest rates.

When US Treasury yields fell, the dollar was more likely to be sold, easing downward pressure.

However, the price range was limited, and both the highs and lows continued to trend in a convergent manner, with both increases and decreases occurring.

Even towards the final stage, there was no sign of a move to break out of the holding pattern.

Background/materials

News that the UK has abandoned plans to raise income tax rates has attracted attention and affected market interest rate expectations.

The recovery in UK interest rates has led to short-term fluctuations in the pound, making it difficult to gauge its direction.

In the United States, long-term interest rates have fallen, creating favorable conditions for dollar selling.

However, the impact of the news was limited and did not significantly change the market trend.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the short-term chart, a consolidation pattern was formed in which the highs and lows gradually narrowed, with fluctuations up and down.

Short-term equilibrium was somewhat dominant, making it difficult for strong buying on dips or selling on rallies to occur.

The short-term price range remained limited, and the lack of direction was noticeable.

No clear breaks were observed near the joints, and the reaction was limited.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price has remained within a range and no clear direction has been achieved.

Although there were ups and downs, there was little movement that indicated a change in the mid-term trend.

There were times when the dominance of selling on rallies and buying on dips alternated, resulting in a balanced market.

The price continued to explore within a medium-term range, and reaction to news was limited.

Impressions

It was a day where the market struggled to find a positive direction, with UK news and US interest rate trends intersecting.

There was little one-way flow, and the environment tended to be dominated by short-term trading.

Although some news was released, it was not powerful enough to significantly move the market, and the market continued to move in a cross-shareholding manner.

From a medium-term perspective, the search for a balance continues, and there is an undeniable lack of momentum.

Trading Impressions

Due to a lack of direction, excessive following was a risky development.

It was possible to enter based on short-term reactions, but the price range was limited and it was difficult to secure profit margins.

The reactions at key points were unclear, and there were only a limited number of points where we could have an advantage.

Overall, this was a situation that required a cautious approach.

Checklist

Check for material continuity and changes in interest rate trends

Verify whether cross-holding will continue using short-term charts

Don't expect too much from reactions around milestones

Looking back

Although there was some buying in Tokyo at first, selling then took over, and although dollar selling intensified in the latter half of the European session following a fall in US interest rates, the direction was unclear throughout the day.

summary

Although buying of the Australian dollar took the lead in the early stages, there was also selling on the rebound, and the market was aware of the weight of the upper limit.

In the latter half of the European session, the dollar was sold on the back of falling US interest rates, and the Australian dollar showed unstable movements, fluctuating between downward pressure and recovery.

As a result, the daily chart lacked substance and trading ended without a unified reaction to the information during the day.

Today's price movements

Tokyo began with buying dominating the market, and continued the trend of the previous day, initially attempting to move upward.

However, gradually selling on the rebound became dominant, and the market continued to trade heavily even after entering Europe.

In the latter half of the European session, falling US interest rates led to selling of the dollar, but the Australian dollar's recovery was limited, and price movements continued to lack direction.

Background/materials

Although the strength of the Australian economy was recognized, concerns about the Chinese economy were a factor in preventing the Australian dollar from recovering.

As uncertainty over US monetary policy continued, fluctuations in interest rates were likely to influence the direction of exchange rates.

The market's reaction to external risk factors was unstable, resulting in a lack of energy for the Australian dollar.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the upward pressure was noticeable, and the situation continued in which selling pressure on rebounds was likely to prevail.

The daily chart shows little substance, making it difficult to determine the direction of the short-term trend.

Although there was some bargain hunting in the short-term support zone, the market continued to lack momentum.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, there has been no clear break from the cross-holding zone, and the situation remains prone to fluctuations.

The price continued to stall at key resistance zones, resulting in a slight lack of energy to continue pushing higher.

The market remains susceptible to external factors, making it difficult to solidify medium-term trends.

Impressions

Buying and selling were mixed throughout the day, and it seemed that market participants were leaning towards a cautious stance.

Although there was some impact from dollar selling due to changes in US interest rates, the driving force behind the Australian dollar itself was limited.

The lack of direction continued, and price movements were noticeably volatile throughout the day.

Trading Impressions

There were many instances where sell-offs prevailed, and there was a long period of time when it was difficult to follow the upward trend.

Although there was some buying when the price was low, it was difficult to grow, and the market was dominated by short-term settlements.

With no clear direction, the market was in a state where position management with reduced risk was required.

Checklist

Confirmation of short-term sell-off points and support zones

Checking US interest rate trends and the dollar's reaction

Understanding changes in the external environment (China-related and market sentiment)