Market Summary

Although the previous day saw continued attempts to test the upper limit, the price was heavy near last week's high and growth was sluggish.

During New York time, the market fell sharply following the release of weekly employment data, but subsequent buybacks narrowed the decline and the market closed.

Today, the Finance Minister's remarks led to dollar buying during Tokyo time, slightly surpassing the previous day's high.

While being mindful of the authorities' restraint, we are now at a stage where we need to see how long the upward momentum will continue.

Expected range

We expect price movements to be centered around 154.0 - 155.0

In the short term, there is a tendency for selling to occur just before the 155 mark, and the bottom is likely to be in the low 154 range and hesitate to fall.

Volatility is calming down, but nervousness is expected to continue amid concerns about intervention.

tactics

The basic strategy is to buy on dips while keeping an eye on the upside.

It is advisable to take a cautious stance and wait for confirmation of a rebound from the first half of 154 before entering.

Prioritize short-term follow-up trading while checking government statements and interest rate trends overseas.

trigger

If it clearly breaks above 155.0, be careful of triggering stop signs for buyers.

On the other hand, a break below 154.0 is likely to be a sign of an expansion of the adjustment, and is a point to be wary of at the lower end of the range.

The trigger could be the release of London time indexes or early morning comments by key figures in the US.

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly falls below 154.0 and settles at the closing price, the dip buying strategy will be invalid.

A break below the uptrend line may also signal a pause in momentum.

If interest rates fall and stock prices weaken simultaneously, the dollar-buying dominance may be disrupted.

Risk Event

Statements by US dignitaries, interest rate trends, and timing of economic indicator releases

Statements and speculation regarding Japan's currency intervention

Instantaneous price movements due to changes in market liquidity during European hours

Position Management

Position size should be about half of normal size.

Take profits gradually near the upper resistance zone to reduce the risk of sudden fluctuations.

Stop loss will be determined when the price breaks 154 and a clear change in direction is confirmed.

Checklist

Regularly check for official statements and intervention-related headlines

Observing the impact of US interest rates and stock futures movements on the dollar/yen

Keep an eye on whether the short-term trend line can be maintained and the upper limit of the range

Market Summary

The previous day saw dollar selling following the weekly employment report, and the euro/dollar exchange rate rose above last week's high.

While US data delays and interest rate cut expectations continue, eurozone growth concerns are keeping prices down

Currently, there is a strong sense of a lull after the rise, and the market is searching for a sense of direction while making short-term adjustments.

While the dollar is weak across all major currencies, investors continue to wait for new information

Expected range

Expected to trade at a cross-hold around 1.1550–1.1620

The upper limit will be influenced by last week's high price level, while the lower limit will likely be determined by whether or not there is demand for buying on dips.

Fluctuations may temporarily widen depending on the liquidity during New York hours.

tactics

The basic stance is to buy on dips

Consider short-term buybacks after confirming upward momentum

In preparation for a one-way break, maintain a light position during sudden fluctuations

trigger

Possibility of rekindling buying pressure above 1.1600

If the price falls below 1.1560, short-term investors are likely to close out their positions.

The direction is easy to see from the price movements in the early European trading hours

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly breaks below 1.1540, the uptrend scenario is likely to be negated.

If the closing price cannot hold 1.1600, momentum will slow.

If the downward pressure continues, we expect a return to the range

Risk Event

News of developments related to the US government shutdown and data resumption

Federal Reserve Bank officials' comments and revised policy outlook

Eurozone macro statistics and ECB-related comments

Position Management

The trading size is about half of the usual size.

Take profits around 1.1610-1.1620

Stop losses will be managed with a break of 1.1540 as one criterion.

Checklist

Check the dollar's reaction to the resumption of US statistics and key figures' comments

Determine whether a pullback is forming based on price movements during European trading hours

Beware of sudden fluctuations due to position imbalances and reduced liquidity

Market Summary

The UK employment statistics showed a worsening unemployment rate, which led to temporary selling of the pound, but the dollar subsequently weakened in response to US employment-related indicators, allowing the pound to recover from the losses.

The market is moving within a range both up and down, and is lacking direction.

In the short term, we are waiting for new information and assessing the next indicators and statements by key figures.

Expected range

Expected to trade in a range around 1.3100-1.3200

The downside is likely to be the lows seen before the employment statistics, while the upside is likely to be near the highs seen after last week's rebound.

Beware of sudden breakouts during low trading hours

tactics

Since it is difficult to see a clear trend, the basic policy is to rotate within a range.

In the short term, there is room to consider buying on dips to recover from the downward trend.

Another option is to wait until the price movement during European hours is confirmed and a sense of direction emerges.

trigger

Keep an eye on the situation where buying will prevail once the price breaks above 1.3200

A break below 1.3100 could lead to intensified short-term selling

Position adjustments are underway with the UK GDP and US CPI indicators due to be released tomorrow

Nullification Conditions

If there is a clear break below 1.3050, the upside target scenario will be retracted

If there is a lack of information before the index and trading volume drops dramatically, review your tactics.

If the lack of direction continues for a long period of time, take light positions

Risk Event

UK GDP (September) and US CPI (October) results for November 13th

When there are sudden statements by important people or news related to the UK finances

Dollar-led price movements due to fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields

Position Management

Set a conservative lot size assuming trading within a range

Take profits just before the upper limit of the short-term range, and cut losses immediately when the support is broken.

Before the indicator, reduce open positions and thoroughly limit risk

Checklist

UK and US economic indicator schedules reviewed

Observe price movements and volume fluctuations during European trading hours

Check for line breaks that indicate a trend reversal

Market Summary

The previous day saw the market fluctuating up and down but moving within a range, with little sense of direction.

Resource prices in Australia continue to weaken, while expectations of delayed release of US data are holding back the dollar's momentum.

Overall, amid a lack of material, the market is prone to focus on cross-holdings without price fluctuations.

Expected range

Expected price movements around 0.6500 to 0.6560

The risk of US indexes being postponed and resource prices moving forward means that the market may remain in a range where it is difficult to determine its direction.

tactics

The basic trading stance is to be aware of range rotation

Consider selling back at the upper resistance zone and short-term buying near the lower support zone.

Prioritize small-scale targeting until a major trend occurs

trigger

A breakout above 0.6560 could accelerate short-term buying

A clear break below 0.6500 could bring renewed selling pressure

Beware of the possibility that statements by US dignitaries and reports of the postponement of the US CPI could shake up the market

Nullification Conditions

If the downside support breaks below 0.6480, the premise of the range strategy will be lost.

On the other hand, if it breaks above 0.6580, the direction will change and the sell-off will be considered a withdrawal.

Risk Event

US October CPI release expected to be delayed

China's iron ore supply and demand and business sentiment indicators

Speculation on RBA executives' comments and minutes

Position Management

Set position sizes conservatively and prepare for sudden news

Take profits frequently in the middle of the range, and place stop losses outside the support and resistance levels.

In preparation for the concentration of indicators later in the week, we will not hold on to positions

Checklist

Check whether US indicators will be postponed and how the dollar index will react

Check out iron ore prices and China-related stock trends

Reconfirming the schedule of RBA officials' speeches

Looking back

Selling of the yen was dominant in Tokyo and continued in Europe, and after adjustments in New York, the decline narrowed and the market closed at a high level.

summary

During the day, the yen was sold, and with the participation of overseas investors, the yen continued to test its upper limit.

In New York, profit-taking overlapped and the market was temporarily pushed back, but the recovery was limited and the downside appears to be firm.

There was some buying back towards the end of the day, and trading ended with the overall price remaining at a high level.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, the yen is selling strongly, and the situation remains calm despite being aware of turning points.

The direction of the market did not change significantly during European trading hours, with buying continuing to support the market.

Although the market experienced a correction in the early New York trading session, it subsequently recovered due to buying back.

Background/materials

Domestically, a cautious stance on monetary policy remains likely to weigh on the yen.

Overseas, speculation over the outlook for monetary policy is mixed, while risk appetite is supporting the dollar

Flow-driven movements prevail across the market, with time-of-day adjustments and buybacks themes.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, even when the price is pushing down, the bottom price is shallow, making it easy to notice the depth of buying.

The number of small legs has increased, and while they swing up and down, the sense of direction is gradually pointing upward.

Buying on dips is likely to occur near the short-term line, making it difficult to confirm a reversal of the trend.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, prices will remain at high levels and continue to move above the support zone.

While maintaining a range of holdings, the market is likely to see a rise in the lows

It has maintained key levels, and the direction has not changed significantly over the long term.

Impressions

The calm development, which has been driven by flow and tested the upper limit while also absorbing corrections, is impressive.

The day saw a marked difference between different time periods, with supply and demand continuing to move more in line with single news events.

Although there was some bias in price movements, there were many instances where no major fluctuations were observed overall.

Trading Impressions

The pullback is shallow, and it is easy to pick up short-term pullbacks.

Even after the New York correction, buybacks were rapid, and there were times when it was difficult to assess the situation.

Overall, it was difficult to see a clear turning point, and it seemed like decisions had to be made in line with the flow.

Checklist

Check the change in flow depending on the time of day

Comparing push and return depth

Reconfirm the relative positions of major levels

Looking back

Traffic in Tokyo and Europe was mostly small, and in New York, dollar selling was slightly dominant, but the upside was heavy and the market lacked direction.

summary

In the early stages, there was a strong wait-and-see attitude, and neither the euro buying nor the dollar selling continued to be decisive.

The euro was temporarily supported in New York, but there was concern about a sell-off at key levels.

Overall, the market continued to move within a small range, limiting the short-term direction.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo time, the market continued to move calmly, with little fluctuation in price movements compared to the previous day.

During European trading hours, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed as investors waited for indicators and comments, resulting in sluggish reactions both upside and downside.

During New York trading, dollar selling took the lead slightly, but the euro's recovery was limited and it stalled near the upper end of its range.

Background/materials

The slight softening of US employment-related indicators was a factor in keeping the dollar's upside in check.

Meanwhile, eurozone indicators lacked momentum and did not lead to positive buying of the euro.

Due to the relative weakness of the market, the balance of power between currencies was unclear, and trading remained cautious overall.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, selling was likely near the upper limit of the range, making it difficult to maintain momentum even in short recovery phases.

The downside tends to be shallow and stop for a while, and short-term fluctuations are the main focus rather than directional trends.

Buying and selling were mixed around the short-term moving average, preventing a straightforward breakout.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the trend is one of cross-holding, and price movements continue within a certain range.

The trend direction was unclear, and a balanced shape was maintained with little tendency to move up or down.

Buying and selling are likely to clash at mid-term milestone levels, and there is a lack of information to determine the direction.

Impressions

Both the dollar and the euro were weak, and it seemed like there was a long period of time where it was difficult to see the relative strength or weakness of the pair.

The market was in a state of eagerness to find the next clue, and a sense of waiting for indicators or events was widespread throughout trading.

The price range itself was stable, but the trend continued without any bias towards either up or down, making it difficult to make a judgment in many situations.

Trading Impressions

Both pullback selling and buying on dips tended to be shallow and stopped short, making it difficult to increase profit margins.

Although there were some opportunities for short-term contrarian trading, they were not sustainable and required careful profit taking.

There were many battles at key points, making it a day where advance price management was crucial.

Checklist

Balance of material strengths and weaknesses

Reactions at the upper and lower limits of the range

Waiting for the next indicator or event

Looking back

After falling due to weak UK employment data, the dollar weakened in New York, allowing the market to recover from the losses.

summary

In the early stages, UK employment data weighed on the market, leading to selling of the pound, but the trend changed with news from the US.

Political and fiscal uncertainty held back the upside, while expectations of US interest rates acted as support, limiting the direction of the market.

Although there were fluctuations throughout the day, the market continued to move within a range, and the reaction to the news was short-lived.

Today's price movements

In the early stages, the market moved downward in response to UK indicators, but then stopped falling near a turning point.

During European trading hours, the market attempted to recover but remained heavy on the upside, making it difficult to see a clear direction.

In New York, the dollar weakened following US employment data, leading to a widespread recovery of much of its losses.

Background/materials

UK employment indicators showed a worsening unemployment situation, raising awareness of the weak economy.

There were reports of political instability in the UK, and caution remained over the financial outlook.

In the US, employment data showed a slowdown and interest rate expectations eased somewhat, weakening the dollar and shifting the balance of the market.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, there were times when downward pressure prevailed, and attention was focused on price movements around turning points.

On the other hand, during New York time, there was awareness of room for a rebound, and attempts were made to recover.

The focus was on the ups and downs of the short-term range, and the sense of direction was limited.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price continued to move within a range, with the focus shifting to the battle around key milestones.

British and American news continued to clash, preventing trend formation.

The medium-term direction is prone to change depending on the material, and the unstable balance continued.

Impressions

It was a typical material-driven day, with downward pressure due to British material alternating with pushback due to US material.

While a cautious stance on politics and finances has kept the market from rising, it appears that expectations of US interest rates have prevented it from falling too far.

Ultimately, the matter was resolved within the scope of short-term exchanges, and the movement continued to lack direction.

Trading Impressions

There were many instances where investors calmly judged the momentum of the downward phase and the strength of the rebound phase while checking reactions at short-term turning points.

It was a day when the market reacted quickly to new information, so it was necessary to avoid following too closely and check the shape of any rebounds or pullbacks.

In a range-like environment, the targets were limited, and passing on was also an option.

Checklist

Have you clearly identified the ups and downs of the short-term range?

Were you prepared for sudden changes in indicators and political reports?

Did you avoid unreasonable attempts to follow suit and only consider forms that have advantages?

summary

The Australian indexes have stabilized, and excessive caution regarding the external environment has subsided, providing support.

Overall, the pullback was shallow, and the market conditions favorable for continued buying in each time zone continued, maintaining an upward trend throughout the day.

Although the short-term direction is limited, a structure was observed that made it easy to notice a stable trend.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, buying began early on, and the market started off with a gentle rise, continuing the previous day's trend.

The price surpassed the previous day's high in early Europe, and although it underwent a correction, buying interest remained.

In New York, the market again tested the upside, and prices continued to remain in the high range within a short fluctuation range.

Background/materials

Australia-related indicators have stabilized, and short-term uncertainty has eased somewhat, providing support.

Excessive risk aversion also receded on the US side, and the overall trend was more likely to be in favor of risk appetite.

Fluctuations in resources, interest rates, and external markets were limited, and there was little new material to disrupt the direction.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

While the price continues to rise on a short-term basis, it is prone to selling as investors wait for a pullback near turning points.

The pullback was shallow, with support from the short-term moving average, resulting in a stable trend from the early to mid-point of the session.

Although momentum is slowing at the highs, selling pressure that would lead to a downward collapse is limited.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

No major trend changes are seen in the medium term, and the market is searching for a direction within a certain range.

Near the turning point, selling on rallies and buying on dips intersect, gradually narrowing the price range and holding the price.

The medium-term moving average is flat, and a clear breakthrough would require the emergence of additional factors.

Impressions

Overall, the fluctuations were small, and although buying dominated in each session, a cautious stance remained.

The market is calm, respecting short-term trends while being aware of the lack of material.

Despite the lack of direction, buyers' persistence was evident as prices remained in the high range.

Trading Impressions

The impression was that the market was in an environment where short-term pullbacks were easy to target, as rebounds at shallow pullbacks were repeated.

Price movements tend to be sluggish around milestones, and following-type entries can be stressful.

As the overall adjustment range was limited, it was best to take profits early.

Checklist

Will the trend of prices remaining in the high range continue?

Has the depth of the pullback changed?

Are there any new materials emerging in the external environment?