Market Summary

The previous day saw a sell-off that pushed prices downward, and the market was weighed down by the weight of the upside and a sense of caution was spreading.

With the US employment data and weekend rebalancing due today, it is difficult to determine the direction.

Expected range

The downside is near a potential support level.

The upper limit is around the level where sell-offs are expected.

tactics

The basic policy is to sell on rallies, but also to respond flexibly by checking the reaction of pullbacks.

If the trend calms down, we will consider rotating within a short-term range.

trigger

Downward: when the price clearly breaks below the most recent low

The upward trend is the time when the price breaks above the level that serves as the benchmark for selling on a rebound or the movement after the indicator.

Nullification Conditions

When there is a strong buyback during a downward trend and the price breaks above the most recent high

If price movement is limited even after the event and the directionless state continues for a long time

Risk Event

Results of US employment statistics and wage-related data

Comments by Japanese authorities on currency fluctuations and intervention

Changes in risk appetite due to sudden fluctuations in U.S. interest rates and stock markets

Position Management

Position size should be kept smaller than usual, and new positions should be avoided before the event.

Take profits early before the milestone and adjust carryover risk, including weekend factors.

Stop loss is set at the point where the trigger level is clearly negated.

Checklist

Check the US employment data and interest rate reaction

Check whether authorities have made any warning statements regarding foreign exchange

Check the price movements after the event and reactions at key levels

Market Summary

The previous day saw a preponderance of euro buying, and despite some pullbacks, the exchange rate remained at a high level.

Although concerns remain over weak German economic indicators and comments from ECB officials, the dollar's upside is being limited.

Expected range

Price movements are expected to be centered around the upper half of 1.14 to the upper half of 1.15.

When you are near a turning point, you should pay attention to the slowness of the recovery and the presence or absence of a pullback.

tactics

The basic strategy is to buy on dips, but also take into consideration the possibility that buying momentum may slow down near turning points.

Avoid unreasonable following and prioritize short-term adjustments

trigger

Timing of the release of US employment statistics will influence the direction

The upper side is clearly moving above the most recent high, and the lower side is breaking below the previous day's support level.

Nullification Conditions

If the pullback doesn't work and the price hits a new low, the scenario needs to be reconsidered.

If the price moves rapidly in one direction and moves far outside the target range, it will also be subject to reexamination.

Risk Event

US employment statistics

ECB officials' remarks

Position adjustment by weekend rebalancing

Position Management

Set the lot size conservatively to prepare for sudden fluctuations before and after the event

Take profits in small increments just before the milestone, and clearly set stop losses when the price breaks the dip or fails to recover.

Avoid holding for long periods of time, and consider liquidating some shares before the index is released

Checklist

Have you checked the US employment statistics and the market reaction?

Do you know the most recent highs, lows, and milestone levels?

Are your position adjustments and holding amounts appropriate before and after the event?

Market Summary

While the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and expectations of a rate cut are in focus, uncertainty remains about the UK's finances, limiting the direction of the market.

With the US employment statistics coming up, prices are expected to remain at high levels as the dollar is expected to lead the price movement.

Expected range

Around 1:29 to 1:31

Reactions near turning points are easily noticed, so caution is required when following both up and down.

tactics

Buying on dips

However, they are cautious about chasing higher prices and are prioritizing attracting the price to the support zone.

trigger

If it breaks above the most recent high, it is a good indicator to continue buying in the short term.

The initial reaction after the release of the US employment statistics and the flow of time in Europe will likely provide a sense of direction.

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly breaks through a potential pullback point, causing concerns about a lower price

Without any material news, the market will lose momentum from its highs and there will be little room for a rebound.

Risk Event

US employment statistics

Further comments and reports on UK budget policy

Flow fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing

Position Management

Limit entries to near support zones and keep position sizes smaller than usual.

Take profits gradually, using the most recent highs and the levels just before milestones as a guide

Set stop loss at a level where the potential pullback is clearly broken, and avoid chasing the price too far.

Checklist

Have you checked the price movements and liquidity changes before and after the US employment statistics?

Have you organized the key support and resistance levels and reactions in advance?

Have you considered weekend-specific flows and carryover risks?

Market Summary

The Australian dollar continues to be vulnerable to changes in US interest rates and risk appetite due to a lack of Australian factors.

The previous day, selling prevailed during New York time, and the recovery trend subsided, with the overall market feeling that prices were heavy on the upside.

Expected range

The lower limit is expected to be around the most recent low, and the upper limit is expected to be around the rebound high.

Today, the price range may widen due to US indicators and weekend factors, so we need to be careful of any sudden price movements either up or down.

tactics

Basically, we will be mindful of pullback selling, but will avoid excessive chasing in the low price range and take a stance of pulling back and making decisions.

I want to avoid bias in one direction and prioritize entries after checking the reaction at key points.

trigger

In the upward direction, if a clear breakout above the most recent high and continued buying is confirmed

If the price falls below the previous day's low and then shows a weak recovery, the trend will likely continue.

Nullification Conditions

If the price is bought back immediately after the downturn and settles in the high range, we will reconsider the assumptions for selling on the rebound.

On the other hand, if the price is consolidating at the lower end and a new high is in sight, you will need to revise your strategy.

Risk Event

Sudden fluctuations may occur due to the release of major indicators such as the US employment statistics.

Be aware of irregular price movements due to weekend capital adjustments and position adjustments.

Position Management

Position size is kept slightly smaller than usual, leaving room to respond to sudden changes.

Take profits frequently when you reach a certain milestone, and quickly liquidate losses when the price falls outside the expected range.

Checklist

Check the US employment data and the dollar's reaction

Pay attention to changes in Australian indexes and resource prices

Check whether the return high and most recent low have been updated.

Looking back

In Tokyo, the buying spree peaked, and although there was some selling in Europe, the downside remained limited, and the day continued without any sense of direction as investors waited for new information.

summary

While prices remained in the high range, there was a sense of weight on the upside, and the balance between buying and selling was balanced.

The sluggish growth in U.S. interest rates and weak economic indicators in Japan clashed, preventing a clear trend from emerging.

The market became more awaiting the next clue, limiting any one-way bias.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time began with a preponderance of yen selling, with movements showing an awareness of the previous day's high.

In Europe, sell-offs prevailed, and although the upward momentum slowed, the lower end remained firm.

There was no notable news during US trading hours, and prices remained within a small range until the end of the day.

Background/materials

In Japan, household spending and real wages continued to stagnate, leading to a sense of the need to continue with monetary easing.

Meanwhile, interest rate hikes in the United States have slowed, limiting the dollar's upside.

There was also some demand for the yen as a safe asset, so the trend was not dominated by dollar buying.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The price continues to rise in the high range with upper shadows, so there is still a sense of caution about a sell-off in the short term.

While the daily chart shows an upward trend, there is a focus on a reaction near the most recent high.

The short-term moving average is sloping gently, suggesting a slowdown in momentum.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The upward trend is maintained in the medium term, with limited signs of a major change in direction.

However, prices continue to stagnate in the high range, and there is a growing trend of being somewhat cautious about the upward momentum.

The support line is being taken into consideration, and as long as it is not broken through, the trend itself is likely to be maintained.

Impressions

When all the necessary factors come together, the environment tends to move in one direction, but at present it seems that a wait-and-see attitude is prevailing.

Although prices continue to fluctuate in the high range, it is necessary to remain flexible and not be too determined in the direction.

It can be said that the situation is one in which we continue to wait for the next piece of information to make a decision, with room for fluctuations in either direction.

Trading Impressions

It seemed safer to wait for a reaction after confirming a pullback or rebound rather than following the market when entering.

Prioritizing profit taking at high prices and avoiding unreasonable chasing led to risk aversion.

Since price ranges are limited in short-term trading, it was important to clearly define position management and exit criteria.

Checklist

Have you checked the major economic indicators and scheduled speeches by important figures?

Have you set entry and exit levels and grounds in advance?

Are your position sizes within your money management limits?

Looking back

Buying of the euro became dominant during European trading hours, and the market rose until mid-New York trading, but then the market slowed to a halt due to adjustments.

summary

The euro buying movement was supported by expectations of lower US interest rates and a lull in dollar buying.

However, the dollar was also prone to buying back when it was pushed down, and towards the end of the day, there was also selling on the rebound, which slowed the trend somewhat.

As a result, while the market tested the high range, there was a sense of weight on the upside.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo time, there was a lack of direction, and a wait-and-see attitude continued.

As European trading began, buying of the euro intensified and the market began to turn upward.

Buying remained dominant until the middle of New York time, but profit-taking selling pushed the market back somewhat in the latter half.

Background/materials

Uncertainty over the outlook for US interest rates weighed on the dollar, supporting euro buying.

Position adjustments also progressed ahead of the release of US employment indicators, and excessive dollar buying was curbed.

Although there was a lack of new bullish factors from the eurozone, dollar-driven price movements were noticeable.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the upside, the price was focused on the most recent high, and was unable to break through, leaving the upper limit heavy.

Buying tends to come in when prices are down, limiting the downward movement.

In the short term, the battle continues near the upper end of the range.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, it appears that the market will attempt to recover from the downward trend.

Selling pressure remains near key moving averages, and there is no confirmation of a trend reversal.

In order to influence the medium-term trend, a breakthrough accompanied by material and volume is required.

Impressions

Although there was some buying momentum, it appears that this was more due to a dollar adjustment rather than being led by the euro.

It is difficult to determine the direction, and it feels like the market is almost in a state of waiting for the next piece of information.

Things are likely to fluctuate either up or down, so it's best to avoid excessive expectations or biased perspectives.

Trading Impressions

While buying on dips to ride the trend worked, chasing higher prices was prone to stagnation and carried risks.

There were many short-term reversals near turning points, so it was necessary to keep clear decisions about when to take profits and when to cut losses.

I got the impression that it was more effective to check the rate trends before taking action, rather than taking an unreasonable counter-trend.

Checklist

Have you grasped the starting point and end point of the situation where a sense of direction has emerged?

Did it record a reaction in the high or low range?

Did you make decisions that followed the rules without being swayed by your emotions?

Looking back

Bargain buying began in the middle of the European session, and continued into US trading hours, closing at a high level.

summary

While the Bank of England is expected to keep its policy unchanged and cut interest rates, uncertainty over the UK's finances and growth has also limited the direction of the market.

Despite being affected by US monetary policy speculation and stock price trends, the pound was easily bought on dips and its downside was supported.

Profit-taking was common in the high range, and the upside was heavy, but the overall trend was one of stability.

Today's price movements

Asian trading started with small price movements and continued to lack direction

During European trading hours, bargain hunting came in, cutting the lower price and increasing buying momentum.

During US trading hours, despite being affected by US interest rates and stock prices, buying dominated the market, and the market closed at a high level.

Background/materials

The Bank of England has left its policy interest rate unchanged, and the market is taking it as a given that expectations of gradual rate cuts are growing.

While uncertainty over the UK's fiscal management and growth was a burden, the tug-of-war with factors on the US dollar side limited the direction of the market.

US economic indicators and stock market movements influenced the dollar-led trend, and the pound's value also adjusted accordingly.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Dip buying was in focus, and the bottom price continued to rise.

There was still speculation of a sell-off at the highs, and the focus was on the battle near the most recent highs.

In the short term, buying is dominant, but there have been times when the momentum to hit new highs has slowed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

While downward pressure remains in the medium term, the market has entered a rebound phase.

The battle continues around the major moving averages, and it will take time to confirm a change in direction.

If prices continue to trade in the high range, the market will be in a position to test the next milestone, but there is also a possibility that selling pressure will return.

Impressions

Despite a mix of buying and selling intentions, the pound's resilience was impressive on this day.

Although there is not much material, it seems that short-term flows and changes in risk appetite have influenced price movements.

The market environment continues to require the ability to respond to small price movements rather than excessive expectations.

Trading Impressions

There were some favorable times to try buying on dips, but careful profit-taking decisions were required at high prices.

It was important not to be too biased towards buying and to be conscious of adjusting positions when momentum slowed down.

The key was to frequently check the strength of price movements and identify favorable pullbacks rather than following suit.

Checklist

Have you seen any changes in the Bank of England's comments or interest rate cut expectations?

Did you understand the formation of pullbacks and flow trends during European and US trading hours?

Have you reviewed your position bias in the high price range and the timing of taking profits?

Looking back

Although selling led the way in Tokyo, the downside was limited, and the day ended with a lack of direction, despite some buying back.

summary

Although the overall trend was dominated by selling, buying occurred around key points, causing the market to hesitate to fall.

The market lacked clear clues and was keen to see what the next event would be.

Today's price movements

Selling was dominant in the early stages of trading in Tokyo, but there were also times when the decline stopped and the market rebounded just before the previous day's low.

As it reached Europe, prices fluctuated up and down, but the range was limited, resulting in small movements with little sense of direction.

Background/materials

Weak economic indicators in China raised concerns about Australia's export environment.

A risk-averse mood intensified worldwide, weighing on high-interest rate currencies and currencies of resource-rich countries.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia's stance did not suggest any sudden easing, which also served to support the downside.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the battle around the milestone will continue, and the upside will remain vulnerable to pullback selling.

It has been moving below the moving average line, and even in a recovery phase, it is easy to notice that the upper limit is heavy.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the trend of lower highs and new lows continues, and the market appears to be in a correction phase.

However, buying back is likely to occur at major support points, and the price is moving within a range of a gentle downward bias.

Impressions

I feel that the price movements were a mix of testing the lower end and buying back, reflecting the participants' hesitation.

Even while waiting for new information, risk aversion and the impact of China-related factors are likely to remain a major consideration.

Trading Impressions

It was difficult to grow in one direction, and the situation called for short-term decision-making rather than aiming for profit margins.

I feel that it was more effective to wait and see the reactions at key points before making a decision, rather than trying to follow suit.

Checklist

Have you checked the economic indicators for China and the US?

Are key support and resistance levels clearly defined?

Have you set stop loss lines and assumed risks in advance?