Market Summary

Risk aversion prevailed due to the impact of falling US interest rates and falling stock prices, and the market was in favor of buying the yen the previous day.

During Tokyo trading hours, downward tests were conducted first, and then the price range narrowed as investors waited for new information.

Today, after an early downturn, there was a buying spree, and the direction is still being explored.

US data and interest rate reaction are themes during the day

Expected range

Expected to fluctuate within the range of the previous day's low to the rebound high.

While confirming the strength of the downward trend, attention should be paid to the slowdown of the upward recovery.

Be wary of range expansion as liquidity recovers after entering Europe

tactics

Basically, focus on selling on rallies, and respond to rebounds after downward pressure with short-term rotation

Consider short-term testing as the resistance band approaches and adding to the stock after stalling is confirmed.

Avoid chasing the sudden rebound and wait to see if the momentum of the rebound slows down.

trigger

A clear break with the previous day's low and a deterioration in the trading volume

The recovery was suppressed during the initial European trading hours

The direction of interest rates in response to the results of the US ADP and ISM

A situation where US stock futures and interest rates move in the same direction, signaling risk aversion

Nullification Conditions

The price clearly broke above the recovery high range, creating a pullback and testing the high again.

US interest rates are recovering, and stock prices are also moving in line with risk appetite

The selling momentum is not sustained due to a lack of volume during the downward trend.

Risk Event

US ADP employment results and their interpretation

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Sentiment Index

Headlines related to important figures and authorities

Sudden changes in US stock futures and crude oil

Position Management

The size is smaller than usual and comes in sections

Take profits gradually just before the nearest milestone

Stop loss is strictly set outside the most recent return point or invalidation condition.

Checklist

Do U.S. interest rates and stock futures continue to signal risk aversion?

Will the initial European action limit the rebound, or will it lead to a pullback?

Is the correlation between prices and interest rates maintained after the US ADP and ISM?

Market Summary

With the final European service PMI report, German economic indicators, and the US ADP and ISM non-manufacturing reports due in the evening, the market is in a long waiting period for new information.

The previous day saw a continued sell-off trend after Europe, and today's market is likely to have a short-term direction depending on the headline indicators.

Expected range

The intraday range is expected to be centered on the previous day's lows and the rebound highs during Asian trading hours.

From late Europe to US trading hours, manage with margins above and below, assuming volatility increases before and after the index

tactics

In the early stages of London, the market was based on range rotation, with short-term counter-trend trading near the upper and lower limits.

The US index range should not forcefully lead the price, but should follow the initial direction in the short term and take profits early.

trigger

If the European market clearly breaks above the previous day's highs in the initial move, wait for a pullback.

If the price falls below the previous day's low after the US ADP or ISM, the strategy will shift to selling on the rebound.

Nullification Conditions

If the upside trend stalls without volume after breaking out and returns to the recent range, withdraw the follow-up scenario.

If the downside rebounds strongly after hitting a new low and recovers by repeating the previous high, the assumption of selling on the rebound is lifted.

Risk Event

German and Eurozone PMI final surprises

Fluctuations in the US ADP employment statistics and changes in the ISM non-manufacturing inflation-related indicators

Sudden risk aversion due to statements by important figures and geopolitical headlines

Position Management

The size remained modest during the day, and the US index band further narrowed and gradually increased after initial confirmation.

Set profit taking shallowly based on the most recent swing highs and lows and the boundary of the range formed just before the indicator.

Place the stop loss just outside the entry basis, and if the price movement continues to be different from what was expected, temporarily withdraw to a no-position position.

Checklist

Updated the previous day's highs and lows and the range position during Asian hours

Recording European PMI fluctuations and initial market reactions

Examining the initial direction of the US index band and the strength of the pullback

Market Summary

With the UK monetary policy announcement due the next day, the pound's recovery is limited due to slowing inflation and uncertainty over fiscal policy.

In the US, employment and economic indicators are attracting attention, and the dollar is holding firm.

The previous day's GBPUSD saw selling dominate from European trading hours, and closed with a downward trend in mind.

Although there was some buying back around the turning point, the upside was suppressed and there was little sense of direction.

Expected range

Around 1.3000–1.3150

We anticipate a rebound from the turning point and a sell-off battle.

If both the top and bottom are broken, there is room for the flow to change.

tactics

Basically, we prioritize resales.

If the upper limit test is weak, respond by gradually selling.

We will also consider short-term buybacks near milestones.

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above 1.3110, buying pressure is likely to intensify.

Beware of accelerating selling if the price falls below 1.3000

US employment data and increased US time liquidity could be catalysts for change.

Nullification Conditions

If it breaks above 1.3150 and acts as a pullback, the sell-back scenario will collapse.

If the rebound continues after hitting a new low and the price remains in the high range, it is necessary to reconsider your assumptions.

Also be wary if a large position imbalance is resolved before the event.

Risk Event

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) results announced

US ADP employment statistics, US service industry-related indicators

High-level remarks on UK fiscal trends

Position Management

Set the overall position smaller than normal

Take profits early before the milestone

Stop loss is limited to the outside of the recovery high or the most recent high and low.

Checklist

Will there be any buybacks around 1.3000?

Changes in trends and trading volume before and after US indexes

Checking for bias in position adjustments before BOE

Market Summary

Even after Australia's monetary policy was left unchanged, inflation concerns and softening resource prices remain a concern, and the Australian dollar has been slow to recover.

In the United States, with the release of employment-related indicators looming, the market remains volatile depending on the direction of the dollar.

The previous day, selling was dominant and the price closed in the lower range, and although there were times today when the price tried to move downwards, it was bought back at the dips.

Expected range

Around 0.6450 to 0.6530.

While downward pressure remains, buying is likely to occur at turning points, and prices are likely to fluctuate.

There is a possibility that the range will widen depending on price movements after the US indicators.

tactics

The basic principle is to sell on returns.

However, temporary dip buying near milestones is also being considered.

If it's difficult to get a sense of direction, avoid pursuing it too deeply.

trigger

The downward movement is clearly below the previous day's low range.

On the upside, buying will continue if the price breaks above the most recent recovery high or after European trading hours.

Also pay attention to the results of the US ADP employment statistics and the ISM non-manufacturing index.

Nullification Conditions

If the price consolidates at the lower end and then continues to rise above the rebound high.

If strong buying continues without any material change.

When there is a movement accompanied by volume that simply negates the milestone.

Risk Event

US ADP employment statistics.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index.

Australian trade balance.

Position Management

The size is about half of the normal size.

Adjust profit taking frequently just before milestones.

Stop losses are set based on the most recent rebound high or support rejection level.

Checklist

The strength of buybacks in response to tests of lower prices.

The direction of the dollar around US indicators.

Risk trends in resource prices and stock markets.

Looking back

During Tokyo trading, yen buying temporarily prevailed, but then buying back began, and Europe showed a lack of direction, while in New York, dollar buying prevailed following US indicators.

summary

US economic indicators showed signs of strength, supporting dollar buying.

Although caution remains regarding monetary policy and statements from the authorities in Japan, the momentum for buying yen was limited.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo time, there were instances of risk-averse buying of the yen, but at the lower end, bargain hunting was seen and the yen recovered.

During European trading hours, the market was mostly in a small range amid a lack of material.

Following the release of US data during New York time, dollar buying became dominant, and there were moves to test the highs.

Background/materials

In the US, economic indicators beat market expectations, providing support for interest rates

On the Japanese side, there was no change in the direction of monetary policy, and caution was exercised over comments from the foreign exchange authorities.

The stock market and US long-term interest rates also influenced the direction of the exchange rate.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

While bargain hunting is expected in the short term, selling on rebounds is also seen at high prices.

The market was aware of the heavy upper limit near the turning point, and traders were waiting to gauge the strength of the rebound.

The price continues to move above the moving average line, and the downside appears relatively firm.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The market is maintaining an upward trend in the medium term, but a correction phase near the most recent high is also on the horizon.

On the daily chart, the price continues to trade in the high range, and the market continues to explore its direction.

The distance between the major support and resistance zones is narrowing, and new material is needed to break them.

Impressions

Despite the impact of the index announcement, the market as a whole remained calm with no excessive bias.

While caution remains in the pursuit of higher prices, buying interest was confirmed at dips.

Trading Impressions

It was difficult to grasp the direction in the short term, so we made many trades while checking the reaction at key points.

There were sudden fluctuations before and after the index announcements, making the importance of position management a priority.

Checklist

Checking the trend of US long-term interest rates and the stock market's risk stance

Check price movements and volume reactions around major support and resistance zones

Beware of sudden headline risks caused by statements by foreign exchange authorities or important figures

Looking back

Although some news emerged, the market lacked direction and continued to move within a range, even as it tried to move up and down.

summary

In Europe, an improvement in German orders was confirmed, but the response was limited due to inconsistencies in the results.

In the US, dollar buying temporarily strengthened following employment-related indicators, but the movement did not continue and prices returned to a stable level.

Overall, there was a strong desire to assess interest rate and stock price trends, and the market avoided aggressive direction throughout the day.

Today's price movements

The Tokyo session started with quiet price movements, and even after European session began, there was no significant movement outside the range.

During US trading hours, the dollar temporarily strengthened after the release of the index, but it quickly recovered and settled back down to a stable level.

Although the price fluctuated throughout the period, it returned to the central price range towards the end of the period.

Background/materials

While German manufacturing indicators showed year-on-year improvement, some sectors remained weak, leading to mixed market sentiment.

US employment data highlights both strength and weakness in the labor market

There were no signs of any major policy changes in either Europe or the US, and investors were more inclined to wait and see what events would occur later in the week.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the price continued to fluctuate between recent highs and lows, with limited directionality.

Values tend to converge around the short-term moving average, and rebounds and rebounds tend not to extend excessively.

Although there was a back-and-forth between buying on dips and selling on rallies, there was no clear break and the momentum was lacking.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the gradual downward trend that began last month has continued, and even in the recovery phase, there is a sense of weight on the upside.

There has been a lot of back and forth around the round number, and it's hard to see any signs of a reversal.

On a weekly basis, it is still in the middle of the range, and it seems that a change in direction is needed.

Impressions

The market seems to be prioritizing a wait-and-see approach, as it reacts to the news but quickly returns to a calm state.

As the market continued to move with little sense of direction, it was easy to be swayed by small price movements, and we wanted to avoid following them too closely.

Since there is no major imbalance, it seems like the market is well-positioned to move forward depending on the next piece of information.

Trading Impressions

It was difficult to target price fluctuations in the short term, so we had to take small profits one by one.

The decision to sell on rallies and buy on dips worked well, but there were times when the market was caught up in a reversal if it pulled too hard.

Rather than rushing and making moves, it was safer to take small steps while checking the reaction at each turning point.

Checklist

Check market reaction to upcoming European data and ECB comments

Keeping an eye on the impact of fluctuations in US interest rates and stock prices on the currency market

Check the quality and volume of price movements near the upper and lower limits of the range

Looking back

With the Bank of England meeting coming up and the market waiting for new information, the market has been moving in a directionless manner despite some ups and downs.

summary

The UK services PMI was revised upward, signaling a solid economic outlook, but assessments of growth and inflation were divided and the market remained on the sidelines.

There were some dollar buying moments in response to US data, but this trend did not continue, and a cautious stance prevailed ahead of the UK policy announcement.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo trading, the price continued to move in a narrow range, and the direction remained unclear even after entering Europe.

During New York trading, US indexes triggered a temporary surge in dollar buying, pushing the dollar down, but the fluctuations narrowed again towards the close, and the price ended up remaining within a range.

Background/materials

The final UK services PMI figures were revised upward, but the slowdown in price pressures and the economic slowdown were also taken into consideration, and this was closely watched as a factor for the Bank of England's decision.

In the US, employment-related and economic indicators were released, and interest rate movements led to dollar-buying, but excessive positioning was avoided ahead of the Bank of England meeting.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The recent decline has run its course, and while there has been some buying at the lower end, there has been a tendency for selling to occur on the upside.

In the short term, the price repeatedly rebounded and stalled around key points, and the price range continued to move within a limited range.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market is continuing to try to recover from its downward trend, and people are paying close attention to reactions around turning points.

Although the relationship with the moving average and the high and low prices continue to decline, there are signs that the decline is bottoming out, so we need to wait for information before determining the direction.

Impressions

The main theme was the confirmation of the Bank of England's stance, and this seems like a reasonable development for a day before a meeting.

With little momentum in one direction and limited liquidity, it appears that short-term investors have been driving the market.

Trading Impressions

The market reacted relatively smoothly to rebounds and stalls at key points, and although there were short-term buying and selling opportunities, it was necessary to make the decision not to push too hard.

Since it was before the event, it was necessary to keep positions light, and it was effective to follow price movements without forcing a decision on a direction.

Checklist

Bank of England meeting vote split and tone of statement

Authorities' assessment of services PMI and price outlook

The impact of US interest rates and the dollar's reaction

Looking back

Australian dollar selling took the lead in Tokyo, but was followed by buying, while dollar buying prevailed in New York following US indexes.

summary

In Australia, caution about inflation remains a concern even after the policy interest rate was left unchanged, and sluggish resource prices have weighed on the upside.

In the US, strong employment-related indicators were seen, and the underlying strength of the economy led to dollar buying.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the Australian dollar was supported to a certain extent by a sell-off followed by a buy-back.

During European trading hours, the market moved with little sense of direction, but during New York trading hours, dollar buying intensified in response to US indexes, limiting the Australian dollar's upside.

Background/materials

The RBA has kept interest rates on hold and remains wary of a resurgence in inflation, easing expectations of further easing.

On the other hand, the slowdown in the Chinese economy and weak iron ore prices put upward pressure on the Australian dollar, while the improvement in US indicators contributed to the dollar's dominance.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, there was a trend of expecting a sell-off, and even if the price rose, it was prone to selling pressure.

There was some buying at the lower end of the historical low range, and the price movements during the day were testing each other up and down.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market will continue to try to recover from the downward trend, with attention being paid to the moving averages and trend lines.

The downward trend itself continues, and even when the momentum slows, there is no clear reversal.

Impressions

While Australia's policy stance will support the currency, the external environment appears to remain a factor restricting the upside.

As long as US indicators remain strong, the Australian dollar's recovery is likely to be limited, and the market is remaining cautious while assessing the factors.

Trading Impressions

Even though the selling trend continued, there were short-term buybacks, so buying at high prices and chasing low prices was something to be avoided.

I felt that it was effective to refrain from making risky entries during times when there was a lack of direction, and to wait for clear information or turning points.

Checklist

Focus on US employment-related indicators and interest rate trends

Check the trends in iron ore prices and China-related indicators

Check the reaction near the previous day's highs and lows