Market Summary

Although there was a temporary sell-off of the dollar in response to US economic indicators, it was bought back, and the situation continues to lack direction.

While the difference between the Bank of Japan's relaxed stance and the tone of U.S. monetary policy is being taken into consideration, concerns about intervention by authorities are keeping prices from rising.

With US economic indicators and key figures due to be released today, the market's reaction to interest rate trends will be closely watched.

Expected range

We expect the exchange rate to fluctuate between the late 153 yen and mid-154 yen range.

There is a strong feeling that we are waiting for further information before a clear break, so we should refrain from following too closely until a sense of direction emerges.

If there is a breakout movement to either the upside or the downside, prepare for the possibility of a change in the short-term trend.

tactics

The basic rule is to be aware of range rotation and respond carefully without following extreme fluctuations.

Prioritize short-term rotation with limited price ranges to prepare for both buying on dips and selling on rallies.

When the market is in an intervention alert zone, it is also an option to be cautious about new purchases and wait for a recovery.

trigger

In the upward direction, a break above the most recent high range marks a turning point in the short-term trend, and in the downward direction, a break below the previous day's low range marks a turning point in the short-term trend.

The results of the US ISM and employment-related indicators could change market sentiment, so we will be closely watching price movements before and after the announcements.

During Tokyo time, the decision will be based on actual demand flow, and from Europe onwards, US interest rates and stock futures movements will be the deciding factors.

Nullification Conditions

The price has clearly broken below the lower limit of the range, leading to selling on rebounds.

During an uptrend, if there is a sudden drop accompanied by observations of intervention, the buying perspective should be reset.

If there is little price movement after the indicator, consider reviewing your short-term strategy or taking a wait-and-see approach.

Risk Event

US ISM non-manufacturing index, ADP employment, and comments from US dignitaries.

Bank of Japan releases minutes of meeting, Ministry of Finance comments on intervention.

Risk aversion flows due to geopolitical risks and sudden changes in the stock market.

Position Management

The size is modest, maintaining ample capacity to handle sudden changes.

Be sure to take profits even if they are small, and make the decision to extend them only after checking the reaction of interest rates and indicators.

Stop losses are limited based on the most recent highs and lows of the rebound and are not pursued further.

Checklist

Have you checked the results of US economic indicators and the reaction of US interest rates?

Are you aware of headlines related to statements and interventions by key figures from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan?

Are the position size and stop loss line within the expected range?

Market Summary

In Europe, a wait-and-see mood prevailed throughout the day, with statements from key figures and US employment-related indicators on the horizon.

After the euro/dollar fell below the previous day's low, the dollar temporarily began to be sold in response to US indicators, causing it to hesitate to fall further.

After that, there was some buying back, but there was a lack of direction, and the overall trend was calm.

While there is a strong downward sentiment in the market, the recovery continues to be slow.

Expected range

Today we expect the price to move in the high 1.09 to low 1.10 range.

There is limited power to break through both above and below, so we continue to wait for clues.

When prices rise, there is pressure to sell on rebounds, and when prices fall, there is a mixture of sentiment to pick up dips.

tactics

Our basic stance is to prioritize selling on rallies.

If there is a sudden rebound, check the momentum of the price movement and follow it carefully.

It is important to avoid unreasonable contrarian moves and to assess reactions near turning points.

trigger

The initial deciding factor will be whether the price will break above the previous day's high during European trading hours.

On the downside, if the price clearly breaks below the most recent low, the trend is likely to accelerate.

It is important to note that the market is prone to short-term fluctuations depending on US employment-related indicators and statements by important people.

Nullification Conditions

If the price breaks above the milestone and remains at a high level, the scenario of selling on a rebound will collapse.

If buying continues after the indicator and concerns about downside ease, a review of tactics will be necessary.

If the closing price is clearly above the milestone, consider changing direction.

Risk Event

Data showing the strength of the US economy, such as the number of US JOLTS job openings and service industry-related indicators.

Comments from ECB officials and comments on monetary policy stance.

Risk aversion due to the situation in the Middle East and fluctuations in crude oil prices.

Position Management

Keep position sizes smaller than usual to prepare for sudden fluctuations.

Profits will be taken gradually, with the nearest support/resistance level as a guide.

Stop losses are taken mechanically when a clear turning point is broken.

Checklist

Check out the price movements and recovery momentum during European hours.

Reaction to US indicators and the strength of downward pressure.

Signs of risk aversion due to statements by important figures and geopolitical news.

Market Summary

Although a recovery in UK economic indicators has been confirmed, the outlook remains limited ahead of the Bank of England's decision.

In the United States, attention is being paid to private indicators to make up for the lag in official statistics, and fluctuations in interest rate expectations are acting as a factor in keeping the dollar's upside.

Although there was temporary selling of the dollar the previous day in response to U.S. indicators, this did not lead to any major movement and the dollar continues to move within a range.

Expected range

The lower limit is expected to be near the previous day's pullback, and the upper limit is expected to be near the most recent high.

Assuming that the environment is such that it is difficult to see a clear direction, the market will be conscious of the range formed by price movements during European trading hours.

tactics

The basic strategy is to assume a range rotation, and focus on counter-trend trading by attracting the market to turning points.

If you see acceleration in one direction, do not try to follow it, but rather prioritize waiting for the next return or push.

trigger

On the upside, if there is any movement to break above the previous day's high during European trading hours, attention will be focused on short-term buying.

On the downside, we need to be on the lookout for further downward pressure if the market falls below the lows of Asian trading hours or if European indicators show a weak reaction.

The revised UK services PMI and the US ISM index could be the catalyst for change.

Nullification Conditions

If there is a strong price movement that clearly exceeds the expected range, the range strategy should be reset.

If the price falls below the potential support point and the recovery is weak, you will need to adjust your perspective.

If the movement after the indicator reverses rapidly, avoid making decisions that follow the initial movement.

Risk Event

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting agenda and vote breakdown.

Results of the revision of the UK services industry index.

Changes in interest rate expectations based on the US ISM and employment-related indicators.

Position Management

Start with half your usual position size and adjust it gradually at key milestones.

Set a short-term profit taking period and adjust it later only if the price increases.

Stop losses are mechanically executed at a position several points beyond the milestone.

Checklist

Market reaction to UK services PMI final figures confirmed

US private sector indicators and overall dollar movements

Position bias and speculation ahead of the BoE meeting

Market Summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its policy interest rate unchanged and is maintaining a neutral stance, citing sticky inflation and strong demand.

In the US, expectations of an interest rate cut are being delayed, and the dollar is remaining firm, limiting the Australian dollar's recovery.

The previous day, the market briefly tested the lower end during New York trading, but there was some buying back and the market settled down somewhat towards the end.

Expected range

A small range centered around 0.6500 to 0.6550 is expected.

It is difficult to find clear information on either the upside or the downside, and the market is likely to continue fluctuating around turning points.

To get a sense of direction, support from US indicators and Australian-related headlines is needed.

tactics

The basic stance is to rotate within the range, with the intention of entering only after checking the reaction near the turning point.

Carefully combine buying on dips at lower prices and selling on rallies at higher prices.

If the price range is limited, avoid pursuing it too deeply and prioritize securing short-term profits.

trigger

To move upwards, a clear break above 0.6550 and consolidation is required.

On the downside, a break below 0.6500, especially a consolidation after New York time, is a point to watch out for.

It is also important to pay attention to the timing of announcements such as the Australian PMI and the US ISM non-manufacturing index.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to hold high even after breaking above 0.6550.

Alternatively, if the decline continues without a rebound after breaking below 0.6500, we will reconsider our range assumptions.

Sudden fluctuations due to large flows or statements by important people can also undermine the assumptions.

Risk Event

Australian services PMI, preliminary composite PMI figures.

US ISM non-manufacturing index, trade balance.

Comments from RBA officials and China-related economic news.

Position Management

Position sizes will be more modest than usual and adjusted gradually according to price range.

Take profits just before the turning point, and avoid pulling the price too far.

Place your stop loss shallowly outside the expected range to ensure you have room to re-enter.

Checklist

Checking the balance of power between selling on pullbacks and buying on dips in the Australian dollar

Monitor price movements and volume changes before and after Australian and US index releases

Check the shape of the wicks and candlesticks near the milestones and whether there is a rebound

Looking back

During Tokyo hours, buying of the yen was dominant, and the recovery from Europe to New York was slow, with the market closing at a lower level overall.

summary

The dollar/yen exchange rate lacked direction and was weighed down on the upside, leading to a continued trend of correction.

The market appeared to refrain from active buying and selling while examining the outlook for US economic indicators and monetary policy.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, buying of the yen took the lead, and during the subsequent European and New York hours, the market fluctuated slightly.

Towards the end of the day, buying back was limited and prices continued to fluctuate in the low range.

Background/materials

Concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and the outlook for monetary policy were a factor in keeping the dollar's upside in check.

On the other hand, there was no change in the Bank of Japan's easing stance, and there was little reason to actively buy the yen.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, a downward trend was seen, and the recovery phase was limited.

At the lower end, there was concern about a test of the most recent low, while at the upper end, selling was likely to occur near turning points.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price is likely to remain range bound and no clear trend has been established.

Even during the uptrend, there have been limited new highs, and the stock continues to trade within the holding range.

Impressions

Despite the abundance of factors, no clear direction was set, and the market as a whole was inclined to wait and see throughout the day.

The price range was narrow, and it seemed that a cautious attitude was spreading among participants.

Trading Impressions

The market conditions were favorable for selling on a rebound, but there were times when the momentum was lacking and it was difficult to decide whether to take profits.

Rather than trying to follow up too quickly, I felt it would be more effective to respond in small increments while checking milestones.

Checklist

Check the US economic data release schedule

Be prepared for Bank of Japan-related statements and reports

Observe reactions at milestone levels and changes in trading volume

Looking back

Dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of interest rate expectations in Europe and the United States, and the euro was unable to recover and attempted to move downwards.

summary

The euro continued to struggle to move higher due to concerns about high US interest rates and a lack of news in Europe.

There was a slight recovery during European trading hours, but selling intensified again after the second half of the London trading session, resulting in a weak overall market.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time started with a lack of direction, continuing the trend of the previous day.

Once European trading hours began, the recovery slowed, and the price moved gradually downwards while the upside was suppressed.

Selling intensified further during US trading hours, and the market closed at a low level.

Background/materials

Expectations for an early easing of US monetary policy have receded, and long-term interest rates have remained high, supporting the dollar.

In Europe, the currency's support was limited due to weak inflation and weak economic indicators.

Geopolitical uncertainty and cautious stock markets also contributed to the risk aversion trend.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the price continued to fall, making it easier for investors to sell on rebounds.

Although the decline stopped at a certain point, the upside was limited and the market remained weak until the end of the day.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The rebound that began in the second half of October has subsided, and a downward trend is beginning to be noticed again.

In the medium term, the focus will likely be on the battle for the previous lows, and the slow recovery will be a concern.

Impressions

In the absence of clear buying factors, the dollar continued to dominate, and the euro was noticeably passive.

Although there were no sudden factors, it seems that a gradual downward pressure has been building up.

Trading Impressions

The recovery was shallow, and it seemed like selling on rallies was more prevalent than buying on dips that day.

The rebound near the turning point was weak, so directional entries required caution.

Checklist

Did you check for important indicators or statements by important people?

Have you verified the price movements and reactions around the milestones?

Have you reviewed the risk and tolerance of your positions?

Looking back

Due to expectations of fiscal tightening and interest rate cuts, the recovery was limited, and the market was focused on a downward trend.

summary

The UK Finance Minister mentioned the possibility of raising taxes to achieve fiscal reconstruction, raising awareness of the impact on the economy.

The pound's upside was limited by growing expectations of interest rate cuts and a resilient dollar.

After European trading hours, there were only limited attempts to recover, and trading ended on a weak note.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, prices were moving with no sense of direction, and a wait-and-see attitude continued.

During European trading hours, sell-offs became dominant and the downward trend gradually intensified.

Even during New York trading hours, buying back was limited, and the market closed in a weak tone.

Background/materials

The UK Finance Minister indicated that he would prioritize fiscal consolidation, and concerns spread in the market that tax increases would slow consumption.

Weak UK economic sentiment indicators and rising expectations of interest rate cuts weighed on the currency.

In the US, the dollar maintained its relative stability, and the strength and weakness of currencies became clear.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the momentum of the recovery was weak, and resistance at the upper end was a concern.

Selling pressure was strong around the turning points, and selling on rallies was more prevalent than buying on dips.

The short-term moving average line continued to trend downward, and even after the rebound, selling pressure remained.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, adjustments from the high range continued, and the recovery was shallow.

The market is testing an important support band, and some are wary of a breakout below it.

The focus of determining the medium-term trend is whether the next low will be reached.

Impressions

Markets are focused on the intersection of fiscal and monetary policy, and fundamentals are becoming more influential.

Although there will be short-term buybacks, there is little material support and I feel that a cautious approach is necessary.

Rather than a sense of direction, what is required is an attitude of carefully checking the reactions at each milestone.

Trading Impressions

The trend of selling on rebounds was dominant, and I felt that there was a risk in simply going against the trend.

In situations where the weight of the material is a concern, I feel the need to narrow down the timing of entries even in the short term.

The decision to prioritize the accuracy of location and time period over price range proved effective.

Checklist

Have you checked the statements related to fiscal and monetary policy?

Have you updated the locations of key support and resistance zones?

Have you grasped the time trends and market sentiment in Europe and New York?

Looking back

The market remained weak, with little recovery, due to concerns about the Reserve Bank of Australia's unchanged policy and the strong US dollar.

summary

Although the RBA maintained a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, the strengthening of the dollar due to fading expectations of a US interest rate cut put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Combined with the global trend of risk aversion, the Australian dollar continued to be limited in its upside.

The recovery was limited, and trading ended weakly throughout.

Today's price movements

In the early stages, selling was ahead, continuing the trend of the previous day.

Even after European trading hours, there was a lack of buying material, and the recovery remained shallow.

The downward trend continued until the end of the New York session, and the market closed at a low level.

Background/materials

The RBA left interest rates unchanged and maintained a cautious stance while closely monitoring inflation trends.

In the US, dollar buying prevailed as expectations of interest rate cuts receded, and speculation about interest rate differentials weighed on the Australian dollar.

Combined with the weakness of the stock market and a risk-averse mood, buying of resource-rich country currencies did not spread.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the price has fallen below a certain level, leading to concerns about a sell-off.

The price moved below the moving average, indicating a heavy upside.

The oscillator was close to being oversold, but the improvement was limited.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the downward trend will continue, with prices continuing to fall below their highs.

It is holding just short of an important support zone, and attention is focused on whether it will maintain this level.

Even if the price rebounds, it is likely to face selling pressure.

Impressions

Despite the ingredients being in place, the response was limited, highlighting the market's cautiousness.

There has been little buying of risk assets overall, and the Australian dollar also seems to have lost direction in this trend.

Rather than a major trend reversal, it seems like we are still in a period of waiting for clues.

Trading Impressions

The recovery was shallow, and a selling-dominated market environment was evident throughout the day.

I realized that unreasonable contrarian moves can easily work against me, and I was reminded of the importance of taking a position that goes with the trend.

I think it would have been effective to take profits temporarily or wait and see when the market reached a turning point.

Checklist

Check the offensive and defensive positions near the main support

Continue to monitor US interest rates and dollar strength

Check for continuity of risk-off factors and changes in market sentiment