Market Summary

While US interest rates remain high, uncertainty remains about the future of monetary policy in Europe due to concerns about slowing inflation and an economic slowdown.

There was a lack of material the previous day, and no clear direction emerged in either Europe or the US, resulting in a narrow price range.

Japan is closed today, making liquidity likely to be low, and the US market has just switched to winter time, making it difficult to predict participants' movements.

US indicators and interest rate trends are likely to have an impact on European currencies, making their direction highly dependent on external factors.

Expected range

Around early 1.06 to early 1.07.

We envision an environment where there will be a lack of decisive force on either the upside or downside, and where there will be a mix of push and pull.

We will be mindful that the range of fluctuations may widen depending on movements in US interest rates and the stock market.

tactics

The basic principle is range rotation.

We focus on short-term fluctuations, taking into account both selling on rallies and buying on dips.

We do not pursue sudden price movements too closely, but prioritize confirming a reversal.

trigger

The key to determining whether the upward trend will be stable at around 1.07.

On the downside, attention will be focused on whether the break below 1.06 will continue.

We will pay attention to the times when changes in the US ISM and US interest rates affect the overall flow of European currencies.

Nullification Conditions

If it clearly breaks above the mid-1.07 level, the assumption of a sell-on rally will collapse.

If it continues to fall below the low 1.06 level, the range estimate will need to be revised.

If the spread widens or if consecutive long legs appear, we will also reconsider our tactics.

Risk Event

US ISM Manufacturing Index.

Adjusting positions ahead of US employment data later in the week.

There is a risk of sudden headline news due to statements by important figures or interest rate trends.

Position Management

Position sizes should be more conservative than usual.

Set your profit taking time to a short period and be mindful of closing your position early if there are signs of a reversal.

Stop losses are executed mechanically, leaving a margin outside the expected range.

Checklist

US interest rates and dollar index movements.

The direction of major stock indexes and the strength of risk appetite.

Changes in liquidity and spreads during Western hours.

Market Summary

With US indicators coming up, investors were in a wait-and-see mood, with selling dominating the market the previous day and prices remaining in the low range.

Eurozone economic data provided limited support, with dollar-side monetary policy speculation the main focus.

Although there are signs that the decline is bottoming out, the momentum for recovery is weak and the market lacks direction.

Expected range

The lower limit is expected to be near a psychological turning point, while the upper limit is expected to return to the most recent high range.

Until clear information emerges, the market is likely to remain within a range.

We will be prepared for a change in the flow during the US time zone if necessary.

tactics

While selling on rallies will be the basic strategy, short-term buying will also be considered if the price continues to hesitate to fall.

If you are unsure of your direction, avoid excessive positions and respond by rotating the range.

We focus on the change in trends from European time to US time.

trigger

The results of the US ISM manufacturing index and the reaction immediately after the announcement will be the initial deciding factors.

The downward trend will see the price breaking below the previous day's low, and the upward trend will see the price rebound to a new high, so the strategy will be reviewed.

If there are any European indicators or statements by important people, they will be checked as factors that could cause short-term fluctuations.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to clearly hit new lows, the advantage of selling on rebounds will be lost.

On the other hand, if the price breaks above the high, reset the downward perspective and return to a flat level.

Even if trading volume and price movements are extremely low, choose to wait and see rather than rush into a decision.

Risk Event

US ISM Manufacturing Index, US ADP Employment Report, US employment statistics later in the week.

European indicators such as eurozone retail sales could also trigger a market reversal.

As the US market returns to normal hours, be aware of changes in liquidity and misperceptions of trading hours.

Position Management

Position sizes are kept smaller than usual to ensure there is room for sudden fluctuations.

Take profits based on the upper and lower limits of the range, and avoid chasing the price too far.

The policy is to mechanically cut losses when a clear milestone is broken.

Checklist

Check the US ISM release time and initial market reaction

Check whether the previous day's lows and highs have been updated

Beware of US market trading hours after daylight saving time ends

Market Summary

With the dollar trend in focus ahead of the release of US economic indicators, caution remains over the UK monetary policy meeting later in the week.

The previous day saw a buying spree after testing the lower end, and while there was a lack of direction, the downward momentum was limited.

US market trading hours have returned to normal, and the market is in a state where attention needs to be paid to changes in liquidity depending on the time of day.

Expected range

Around late January 31st to early January 32nd

On the downside, pay attention to whether or not the price will break below the most recent low

The upward trend is expected to be driven by the highs reached last week.

tactics

The market is based on selling on rallies, but there is still room for buying on dips

Rotate in the short term while determining rebounds and stalls within the range

Avoid unreasonable following and focus on slowing price movements and signs of a reversal

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above the upper 1.32 range, we will consider continuing the upward momentum.

If the price falls below the low 1.31 range, selling will prevail.

US ISM Manufacturing and price movements after European trading hours will be the initial deciding factors

Nullification Conditions

If the price settles above the mid-1.32 range without making a new low

When price movements remain quiet regardless of the time of day and there is no clear direction

When positions are significantly unwound due to expectations contrary to policy expectations

Risk Event

US ISM Manufacturing Index

UK Monetary Policy Meeting Later in the Week

Statements by major central bank officials and US interest rate trends

Position Management

Lots will be kept smaller than usual, and new orders placed around the index will be handled with caution.

Profit taking is carried out in stages based on the upper and lower limits of the range and the most recent retracements and pullbacks.

Stop losses quickly when a trade clearly breaks through a certain milestone

Checklist

Is support at 1.31 maintained?

The dollar's reaction after the US ISM and the relative strength of the British pound

Markets positioning for UK policy events later in the week

Market Summary

With the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting approaching, the Australian dollar continues to remain firm despite testing downwards.

In the United States, trading hours have shifted to normal, and with the release of indicators and trading hours changing, there is a tendency for price movements to fluctuate between different time periods.

As the market awaits indicators and policies from both Australia and the US, it is difficult to determine the direction, and the market is likely to fluctuate up and down in the short term.

Expected range

Around 0.6480 to 0.6560.

While there is evidence of buying interest on the downside, it appears that we need to wait for further material before we see a significant recovery.

As it is difficult to determine a clear direction in this environment, we assume that the price will move within a range.

tactics

Our basic stance is to prioritize buying on dips, while keeping in mind taking profits at the upper end of the range.

We will keep our positions light until the RBA announcement and avoid pursuing the market too closely until we can see the direction of the indicators.

It is advisable to participate with a size that can tolerate temporary reversals in preparation for sudden fluctuations.

trigger

Consider following the upward trend if it clearly exceeds the 0.6560 level.

On the downside, if the price breaks below 0.6480, it will be necessary to be aware of a change in trend and review dip-buying strategies.

Be aware of momentary fluctuations around the time of the announcement of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy interest rate and the US ISM manufacturing index.

Nullification Conditions

If the price falls below 0.6460, we will withdraw our buying interest and consider switching to selling on the rebound.

If the RBA statement shows a retreat from hawkish sentiment or a weak economic outlook, the dip strategy will be less viable.

Even if US indicators lead to stronger dollar buying, it will be difficult to maintain the upper limit of the expected range.

Risk Event

Reserve Bank of Australia policy rates and statements.

US ISM manufacturing index and subsequent US interest rate trends.

The dollar was led by US employment-related indicators later in the week.

Position Management

Just before the indicator, we reduce our open positions and then rebuild them after seeing the results.

The target for taking profits is near the middle to upper limit of the range, and the stop loss is expected to be at a level clearly below 0.6460.

When volatility increases, the basic rule is to keep position sizes smaller than usual.

Checklist

The Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decisions and statements.

US index release times and market reactions.

Changes in price movements and liquidity between Asia and New York hours.

Looking back

The market lacked direction from Tokyo to Europe, and although there was some selling of the dollar after the US data, it was bought back and the overall price movement remained calm.

summary

While caution toward US monetary policy continued and Japan's accommodative stance was taken into consideration, no major trends emerged.

Although prices fluctuated up and down, the movement was limited, and it was a day when participants' attitude of seeing each other off was palpable.

Although dollar buying and correction selling were mixed, the market continued to lack direction.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, there was little movement due to a lack of material, and the market continued to move within a range.

European trading hours also saw limited price movement, with no clear buying or selling momentum.

Although there was a reaction immediately after the US economic indicators, the market quickly returned to its original level.

Background/materials

In the United States, uncertainty regarding monetary policy remained, making it difficult to determine when interest rates would be lowered.

Meanwhile, Japan's financial environment remained accommodative, and interest rate differentials continued to support the dollar.

Due to geopolitical risks and a stagnant stock market, buying of the yen as a safe asset was limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the price continued to fluctuate around the high range, and although there was awareness of the upside, it was unable to break through.

The price continued to move around the moving average line, and the battle between buying on dips and selling on rallies continued.

Oscillator indicators showed limited signs of overheating, and momentum imbalance was small.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the upward trend is continuing, but the momentum is slowing.

The trend of hitting new highs has subsided, and the price has entered a period of adjustment, with milestones in between.

Key support levels are holding and no clear signs of a reversal are evident.

Impressions

The market continued to move in a consistent direction, and it seemed as though the overall market was maintaining a cautious stance.

With limited information available, it seems that participants' interest is focused on upcoming US economic indicators and statements by important figures.

Trading continued with low volatility, with short-term investors dominating the market.

Trading Impressions

Entries were mainly made within the range, and excessive following was avoided.

It was difficult to see the direction, so many people decided to hold positions for a short period of time.

With the range of fluctuations limited, it was a day that required trading with reduced risk.

Checklist

Have you checked the price movement characteristics when there is a shortage of material?

Were you aware of the difference between short-term and medium-term trends?

Did you record the reaction and rebound before and after the index was released?

Looking back

The market fell during European trading hours, falling below the previous day's low, but after the US data came out, it rebounded temporarily before settling back slightly.

summary

Overall, there was a lack of direction, with a mix of selling on rallies and buying on dips.

The dollar fluctuated around the time of the US index, but this was not sustainable and prices remained stable towards the end of the day.

With a lack of strong news, the market appears to be searching for the next piece of information to make a decision.

Today's price movements

During Asian trading hours, the market moved in a narrow range, but after European trading hours began, selling became slightly more prevalent.

Although the market fell further in the early hours of US trading, it was bought back after the index was released, reducing the decline.

Towards the end of the day, the market lost momentum both up and down, and trading ended with only a limited recovery.

Background/materials

With US economic indicators due, dollar buying was seen as the dominant trend amid a lack of direction.

Cautious views on the European economy and falling European bond yields also weighed on the euro.

US interest rates remained relatively high, and there was occasional risk-averse demand for dollars.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The highs and lows continued to fall, and the market became aware of the weight of the upper limit.

The mid-1.15 range is likely to function as a benchmark for selling on a rebound, and with a psychological turning point approaching, there was a lack of momentum to break out above it.

It has been moving below the short-term moving average, and there have been notable instances of it being pushed back even during rebound phases.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

Although the market is likely to remain weak in the medium term, it remains in a range-bound state overall.

Whether the recovery in the 1.16 range will become established will be a determining factor in determining the medium-term direction.

Some believe that the weekly trend is within the range of adjustment and has not led to any extreme movements.

Impressions

While there is a lack of major news, there is some movement to test the ups and downs.

There seems to be a strong wait-for-the-next-event attitude, with many participants maintaining a short-term stance.

Volatility remains low, and the market remains difficult to move in price ranges.

Trading Impressions

There was room for both selling on rallies and buying on dips, making it difficult to have a clear sense of direction throughout the day.

The reaction immediately after the indicator was temporary, and it seemed that there were times when the market was swayed when following it.

I got the impression that it was effective to not force a direction and instead target only situations where price fluctuations were evident.

Checklist

US economic indicators and interest rate reaction

Changes in European economic indicators and market sentiment

Trends in major stock indexes and bond markets

Looking back

From Tokyo to Europe, a wait-and-see attitude continued, and although there was a brief period of pound buying following the US data, the market then fluctuated and settled into a small range of price movements.

summary

There was a long period of time when the market lacked direction, and the fluctuations surrounding the US index were limited.

While UK economic indicators showed signs of improvement, fiscal uncertainty held back gains.

The US dollar remained generally resilient and remained calm throughout the day without any accelerated movements.

Today's price movements

During Asian trading hours, the market remained in a narrow range amid a lack of material.

Even as European trading began, no major direction emerged, and the US index triggered a temporary shift to selling the dollar.

After that, the value went back up and it ended up being a back and forth affair.

Background/materials

In the UK, improved manufacturing data was reported, but reaction was muted due to doubts about its sustainability.

Comments regarding fiscal policy and concerns about tax burdens were taken into consideration, which acted as a factor in keeping the pound's upside.

In the United States, demand for the dollar as a safe asset continued to support the dollar, making it difficult to actively sell the dollar.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Although there was a temporary buying spree, the upside was kept in check by selling on the rebound.

The battle continued around major moving averages, making it difficult to see the direction.

In the short-term chart, lower highs and new lows were mixed together, and no clear trend was established.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the upward momentum is slowing and people are becoming more aware of the weight of the pound.

The market continues to be unable to surpass its most recent high, and some are wary of a reversal of the trend.

On the other hand, the lower end is also being supported at a certain level, and remains within a range of fluctuation.

Impressions

With a lack of direction, it was a day where reactions to news were likely to remain short-lived.

With the price range limited, it seemed like risk management was prioritized over excessive expectations.

In an environment where it is difficult to gain momentum, I felt the need to broaden my perspective and look at both fundamental and technical aspects.

Trading Impressions

Price movements were difficult to expand, and careful decisions were required to secure short-term profit margins.

It was thought that the market would move in response to the US data, but the recovery was so quick that it was difficult to pursue it further.

I felt that it was important to respond flexibly, taking into account milestones and indicator announcements, rather than relying on momentum.

Checklist

Have you checked the major economic indicators and government statements?

Do you have a clear understanding of the upper resistance and lower support zones?

Are your position sizes and stop loss levels set appropriately?

Looking back

Although buying was dominant during Tokyo hours, selling began to take hold after European hours, and after testing the lowest price during New York hours, buying back narrowed the decline.

summary

The tug-of-war between the retreating expectations of an interest rate cut in Australia and expectations of high interest rates in the US led to a lack of direction for the market.

Although there were times when the market tried to move downwards, there was some buying back towards the end of the day, and some support was seen.

No clear trend was established, and the market remained awaiting further information.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, buying came in from the lows, and there was a focus on testing the upward trend.

In Europe, dollar buying prevailed, and the trend shifted downwards.

In New York, after a further downward pressure, buying came in and prices recovered.

Background/materials

In Australia, the view that monetary easing will be postponed for the time being has spread, which has supported the Australian dollar

Meanwhile, in the US, the high interest rate environment was a concern, and dollar-buying pressure remained strong.

Slowing growth in Australian household spending and uncertainty about the global economy also contributed to cautious investor sentiment.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The level around 0.6510 acted as a lower limit to be considered, and when it fell below this level, a rebound was seen.

The upside stagnated around 0.6570, and the range-like movement continued in the short term.

Short-term moving averages are flat, limiting momentum

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price has not been able to recover to the 0.6600 level, and the trend of selling on rebounds continues.

The bottom price has been tested multiple times but has not been broken through, and the price remains firm.

A clear move above resistance is required to determine direction.

Impressions

Although there are reactions to each material, the overall trend is still unclear, and participants appear to be remaining cautious.

There is little imbalance in supply and demand, and there is a strong sense of waiting for the next monetary policy and indicators.

It seems that we are in a situation where checking the trends, support, and weight of price movements is more important than aggressive following.

Trading Impressions

There were moves to capture short-term reactions to index releases and statements by important figures, but the range of follow-up price movements was limited.

Even if the price were to follow a downward trend, it was likely to rebound near support, so caution was required when selling on a rebound.

It was necessary not to hold positions for too long and to make frequent decisions about taking profits and withdrawing.

Checklist

Did you see a reaction near key support?

Are you aware of Australian and US monetary policy-related statements and indicators?

Are you aware of the trading risks when there is no trend?