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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | October IFO Business Confidence Index | Graphical display |
* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day saw some ups and downs, but still saw a slight increase. Today, attention will be focused on whether the market can surpass the highs reached on October 10th. Also, starting today, summer time ends in Europe, and we are back to standard time.
The previous day saw some ups and downs but a slight rise, and towards the end of the day, there was some movement to confirm the firmness of the lower end. Today, we will be looking to see where the upper end will be heavy. Also, from today, summer time ends in Europe and we are back to standard time.
The previous day saw a slight decline despite fluctuations, and the dollar's overall strength was noted. The lows have been gradually falling, and today we will need to see where the downward pressure will be. Also, starting today, summer time will end in Europe and we will be back to standard time.
The previous day's candlesticks showed small bodies, and the pair continued to trade in a range-bound manner, lacking any sense of direction. Today, AUD/USD opened with a large gap following indications of progress in the US-China trade talks. However, the market remains sensitive to news related to the Chinese economy, and the trend is prone to reversal depending on the new material. Today, we will be focusing on filling the gap, while first determining at what level the upside will become difficult. Also, starting today, daylight saving time ends in Europe, and we are back to standard time.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
During Tokyo hours, dollar buying took the lead, and at one point the exchange rate exceeded 153 yen, but selling on rebounds took over at the upside. During European hours, dollar buying weakened as the rise in US interest rates took a breather, and yen buying progressed. During New York hours, dollar buying picked up again on the back of solid US stocks, but the momentum was unable to continue in the 153 yen range and stalled. Overall, it was a day of continued trading in the high range.
The previous day saw a lack of direction from Tokyo to early Europe, but euro buying temporarily gained ground as German economic indicators exceeded expectations. As New York time approached, prices gradually calmed down due to a lack of new information, despite investors keeping an eye on US interest rate trends. As a result, the price was unable to surpass the previous day's high, resulting in a day of trading in a range-bound fashion.
The previous day saw a lack of direction from Tokyo through early European trading, but buying became dominant in the latter half of European trading. As New York trading began, dollar buying also came in, limiting the upside. As a result, neither the previous day's highs nor lows were able to be updated, resulting in a day of continued trading in a range.
The market opened with a gap at the start of trading at the start of the week, and continued to move without a clear sense of direction during Tokyo hours. As European hours began, risk appetite strengthened on the back of expectations of progress in US-China negotiations, and the Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar. The buying momentum then subsided after the RBA Governor's comments indicated a cautious stance on keeping interest rates unchanged. During New York hours, there was a lack of new material, and the market remained in a range-bound trading pattern.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
①Upper limit of range
②Range lower limit
①Upper limit of range
②Range lower limit
①Upper limit of range
②Range lower limit
①Upper limit of range
②Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day saw a slight increase despite fluctuations, and the dollar-buying trend continues.
While the firmness of US long-term interest rates is providing support, there are also concerns about intervention and high interest rates.
Today, attention will be focused on whether the high of October 10th can be surpassed, and developments are expected to explore the direction.
Expected range
Expected to be around 151.80 to 153.40
The upper limit is heavy in the mid-153 yen range, and the lower limit below 152 yen is seen as support.
Although the price range is somewhat limited, the battle for higher prices is expected to continue.
tactics
The basic stance is to buy on dips
It is considered effective to pick up the downward pressure around 152.00 and aim for a short-term rebound.
However, if there is no clear movement to break through 153.30, keep your position light.
trigger
The trigger for an upward breakout is above 153.30
The trigger for a downside break is below 151.80
Be aware of volatility around the midpoint of Tokyo time and when US economic indicators are released.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly falls below 151.70 and closes at that level
If dollar buying weakens and the rise in US interest rates subsides
Failure to update the high could disrupt the scenario of the uptrend continuing.
Risk Event
Announcement related to the US PCE deflator
U.S. Treasury auction results and reaction of long-term interest rates
Statements and trends regarding yen-buying intervention by the Japanese authorities
Position Management
Entry is expected to be around 152.00 to 152.20
Profit target is around 153.20, stop loss is below 151.70
Refrain from new purchases at high prices and prioritize adjusting your holdings
Checklist
US interest rates continue to rise
Will there be any changes to the Japanese government and Bank of Japan's currency comments?
Increase in trading volume confirmed when the price broke through the 153 yen level
Market Summary
The euro is struggling to recover despite being supported on the downside amid growing speculation that the European Central Bank will no longer cut interest rates.
High US interest rates have supported the dollar, and the overall market remains unpredictable.
The previous day saw a slight rise despite fluctuations, and towards the end of the day, there was a movement to confirm the firmness of the lower limit.
Expected range
Expected to be around 1.1600 to 1.1750
The upper limit is heavy around 1.18, and the lower limit of 1.16 is likely to be seen as support.
During the day, attention is likely to be focused on price movements after European hours.
tactics
The basic policy is to respond by rotating the range
When there is a short-term buying spree, we will respond by selling on the pullback, and consider lightly buying on dips near support.
It is effective not to hold positions for long periods and to focus on narrow price ranges.
trigger
The trigger for an upward breakout is above 1.1760
The trigger for a downside break is a break of 1.1620
European index releases and US bond market activity could trigger fluctuations
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks below 1.1600 and closes and holds
If there are few factors to buy the euro and the decline in US interest rates continues temporarily
If the support band is broken by a downward move accompanied by volume, we will revise the scenario.
Risk Event
Preliminary Eurozone Inflation Rates
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator
Trends in statements by European and American financial authorities
Position Management
Entry is expected to be around 1.1650-1.1680
Take profit around 1.1740, stop loss below 1.1600
Position size is about half of normal size to reduce risk
Checklist
Eurozone inflation data and market reaction
Are US interest rates strengthening the trend of a stronger dollar and a weaker euro?
Observe fluctuations in trading volume and market momentum in the 1.17 range
Market Summary
The pound is struggling to recover as UK inflation continues to slow and interest rate cuts remain a concern.
High US interest rates are supporting dollar buying, and the overall market sentiment is in favor of the dollar.
The previous day saw a slight decline despite fluctuations, and the trend of cutting the lows continues.
Expected range
Expected to be around 1.2600 to 1.2740
The upper limit is expected to be heavy in the mid-1.27 range, while the lower limit is expected to bottom out around 1.26.
Volatility is likely to increase slightly after European hours.
tactics
The basic policy is to respond by selling on rebounds
In the event of a short-term rebound, consider selling again at the upper resistance zone.
Be cautious when buying near support and avoid rising without volume.
trigger
The trigger for an upward breakout is above 1.2750
The trigger for a downside break is below 1.2600
It is expected that fluctuations will be more likely to widen temporarily in the early hours of London and around the time of the release of US indexes.
Nullification Conditions
A clear break above 1.2760
If the rise in US interest rates eases and dollar-buying pressure eases
If the daily closing price remains in the 1.27 range, we will reconsider the sell-on scenario.
Risk Event
Bank of England official comments
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator
UK housing-related indicators and market reaction
Position Management
Entry is expected to be around 1.2680-1.2700
Profit target is around 1.2620, stop loss is above 1.2760
Position size is about half of normal size to reduce risk
Checklist
Is there any change in the Bank of England's interest rate cut outlook?
Are US interest rate trends continuing to support dollar buying?
Is there increased selling pressure accompanied by volume in the early hours of London?
Market Summary
Suggestions of progress in US-China trade talks have strengthened risk appetite
The Australian dollar started the week with a large gap in the Oceania market, with buying prevailing in the early stages.
The previous day's candlesticks had small bodies and lacked direction, so today's focus will be on the developments after the gap opens.
Expected range
Expected to be around 0.6500 to 0.6630
The upper limit is expected to be heavy in the mid-0.66 range, while the lower limit is expected to find support around 0.65.
Price movements are likely to be influenced by US-China related headlines.
tactics
The basic stance is to focus on range rotation
We will use both pullback selling at the upper resistance zone and short-term dip buying near the lower support zone.
If you see a gap filling movement, carefully check the momentum and determine the direction.
trigger
The trigger for an upward breakout is above 0.6630
The trigger for a downside break is below 0.6500
Pay attention to headlines around mid-day in Tokyo and early in Europe
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks below 0.6480 and closes at that level
If US-China related news worsens and risk aversion intensifies
If the rebound weakens after the gap is completely filled, we will reassess the uptrend scenario.
Risk Event
Australian Quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI)
US PCE deflator related indicators
Statements by government officials regarding U.S.-China talks
Position Management
Entry is expected to be around 0.6530 to 0.6560
Profit target is around 0.6620, stop loss is below 0.6490
Keep position size to about half of normal size to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations
Checklist
Are there any new changes in the coverage of the US-China talks?
Check how the market is pricing in the Australian CPI
Will the price movement after the gap settle down or expand?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
During Tokyo trading hours, dollar buying took the lead and the exchange rate briefly exceeded 153 yen, but selling on the rebound took over on the upside.
summary
During European trading hours, dollar buying weakened as the rise in US interest rates took a breather, and yen buying progressed.
During New York time, dollar buying strengthened again against the backdrop of firm US stocks, but momentum slowed in the 153 yen range.
Overall, the market continued to fluctuate around high prices, lacking direction.
Today's price movements
The opening price started from the upper 152 yen range, and tested the 153 yen range during Tokyo time.
During European trading hours, adjustment selling occurred, pushing the yen down to around 152.7 yen.
During New York time, the yen was bought back up to around 153 yen, supported by a rebound in US stocks.
Background/materials
Dollar buying momentum has calmed somewhat following a pause in the rise in US interest rates and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
There was continued concern about verbal intervention by Japanese authorities due to concerns about the weak yen.
The market as a whole adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of US economic indicators
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Resistance is expected to be around 153.20-153.30, and clear material is needed to break through.
The lower support level is between 152.50 and 152.60, making it easy for buyers to buy on dips.
Although the RSI remains high, the overheating is limited and the price remains in the high range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the uptrend is maintained, with the support band based on the upper 150 yen range functioning.
On the weekly chart, the price continues to move at the upper end of the range, and a sense of direction is being sought.
In the medium term, US interest rate trends and statements from authorities will be the key to determining trends.
Impressions
Despite the high price, the desire to buy dollars remains strong, and there is a quiet battle while being wary of intervention risks.
Positions are less likely to be biased due to waiting for events, and price movements are more likely to be driven by short-term investors
While there were some adjustments overall, the market was focused on maintaining a firm bottom in the upper 152 yen range.
Trading Impressions
For the time being, trading will be centered around 153 yen, making the market favorable for short-term trading.
A light position is appropriate until there is clear momentum in either the upside or downside breakout.
Continued vigilance is required regarding the risk of a sudden drop in the dollar-yen exchange rate during a period of upswing
Checklist
Will US interest rates and the dollar index rise again?
Will selling pressure increase at the 153 yen level?
Will government statements and reports related to intervention affect the market?
Looking back
The euro was bought temporarily following the positive results of German indicators, but the market was sluggish and lacked direction during New York trading hours.
summary
In the early European session, buying dominated as German economic indicators exceeded expectations.
Selling on the rebound intensified just before the 1.17 level, and the upper limit was considered heavy.
During New York trading, while keeping an eye on US interest rates and stock trends, there was a lack of new information, and overall price movements were limited.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the exchange rate fluctuated in a small range in the upper 1.16 range
After the German index was released during European hours, buying came in and the price rose to around 1.1690.
During New York trading, the pair reacted to the movement of US interest rates but failed to reach new highs, eventually closing at around 1.1670.
Background/materials
German business confidence index beat expectations, easing concerns about the eurozone economy
On the other hand, position adjustments are likely to be made ahead of the ECB meeting later in the week, limiting upside.
In the US, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed ahead of major indicators, limiting dollar movement
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Resistance is seen just before 1.1700, while support is seen around 1.1650.
The RSI remains in the neutral zone, making it difficult to see a clear direction.
In the short term, the correction phase will continue within the range of 1.1650 to 1.1700.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to consolidate around the 50-day moving average.
If the price clearly moves above 1.1740, there will be room for mid-term upside, but the price is stuck waiting for an event
If it falls below 1.1550, be wary of a shift to a medium-term correction trend
Impressions
A quiet day before events, with the focus on positioning ahead of the ECB meeting and US data
Trading was led by short-term investors, and no clear break was made on either the upside or the downside.
Overall, a risk-reducing trading stance was noticeable.
Trading Impressions
A day when short-term trading with an eye on the upper and lower limits of the range was effective
An environment where selling on pullbacks around 1.17 and buying on dips around 1.1650 are likely to work.
Before the event, it is appropriate to keep the lot size light.
Checklist
Are position adjustments intensifying due to speculation ahead of the ECB Governing Council meeting?
Are there signs of a breakout from the 1.1650-1.1700 range?
Are fluctuations in US interest rates leading to dollar-buying and euro-selling pressure?
Looking back
Buybacks became dominant in the latter half of the European session, but there was little movement and a lack of direction during New York trading hours.
summary
From Tokyo to early Europe, the exchange rate remained in the low 1.33 range.
There was some buying back in the latter half of Europe, and at one point the price rose to around 1.3350.
During New York trading, dollar buying again weighed on the upside, and as a result, neither the previous day's high nor the previous day's low could be updated.
Today's price movements
In the early stages, Asian markets saw only small price movements amid a lack of material.
Pound buying continues during European trading hours, rising to around 1.3350
During New York time, the market fluctuated again against the backdrop of stable US interest rates, closing at around 1.3330.
Background/materials
While expectations of a rate cut simmered amid a slowdown in UK inflation, selling pressure on the pound was limited.
Market movements led by position adjustments ahead of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting later in the week
Dollar buying ahead of US economic indicators was a factor in limiting the upside.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Resistance is around 1.3355-1.3360, support is around 1.3310-1.3330
The RSI is at a neutral level and lacks direction, but the range is likely to be maintained in the short term.
If it breaks below 1.3280, the correction is likely to intensify, with room for a rebound up to around 1.3380.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to fluctuate around the 50-day moving average.
If the price exceeds 1.3400, selling pressure is expected, and below that, 1.3250 is the support zone.
Over the medium term, the price will likely continue to consolidate around the 1.33 level
Impressions
Amid a lack of material overall, trading was dominated by short-term investors ahead of the event.
Speculation about the Bank of England meeting and US interest rate trends clashed, leaving a lack of clear direction
It was a quiet day with many participants concentrating on adjusting their positions.
Trading Impressions
The upper limit of the range is near 1.3350, with pullback selling expected, and the lower limit is near 1.3310, with buying on dips expected.
As the event is approaching, it is appropriate to operate with a light lot size and limited profit margins.
Given the decline in volatility, short-term contrarian trading is the focus
Checklist
Is the selling pressure around 1.3350 being maintained?
Is there a tendency to buy or sell the pound ahead of the Bank of England meeting?
Could trends in US interest rates and stock prices be leading to a resumption of dollar buying?
Looking back
Trading opened at the start of the week, and Australian dollar buying progressed during European trading hours, but the RBA Governor's comments limited the upside.
summary
During Tokyo time, there was little sense of direction, and the price continued to move slightly in the mid-0.65 range.
As European trading began, Australian dollar buying became dominant due to expectations of progress in US-China negotiations.
The RBA Governor's cautious comments brought a lull in buying momentum, and the market remained in a stalemate during New York trading due to a lack of material.
Today's price movements
The market opened with a gap, and during Tokyo hours the price fluctuated in a small range around 0.6530-0.6550.
During European trading hours, the price rose to the 0.6560 range due to risk appetite.
As New York time approached, there was a lack of new information and the price closed around 0.6550.
Background/materials
Reports of progress in US-China talks improved market sentiment, helping to support the Australian dollar.
The RBA Governor said that "we are not in a hurry to cut interest rates," but emphasized that the bank will continue to monitor the slowdown in inflation.
The comments strengthened expectations that interest rates would remain unchanged ahead of the next board meeting, and the market reaction was limited.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Upper resistance is around 0.6570-0.6600, lower support is around 0.6520-0.6500
In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate between the center lines of the Bollinger Bands.
The RSI remains in the neutral zone, and the lack of direction continues.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On a daily basis, the low 0.6500 range is seen as a medium-term support zone.
If there is a clear breakout above 0.6600, the upper limit of the range could be tested.
However, before the event, liquidity is low and price ranges tend to be limited.
Impressions
While the RBA Governor's comments provided short-term support for the Australian dollar, new positioning was limited ahead of the CPI.
Although the mood of improvement in US-China relations is providing support, the direction remains unclear
The market started the week quietly as it waited for further news
Trading Impressions
Mainly short-term trading with an eye on the range of 0.6520-0.6600
Avoid carrying over your investments before the event and focus on day trading.
It is advisable to limit positions to around 60-70% of normal levels and prepare for the release of the indicators.
Checklist
Are expectations of interest rates remaining unchanged following the RBA Governor's comments?
Is the pullback near 0.6520 being maintained?
Is the news about US-China relations affecting the direction of the Australian dollar?
FX Journal