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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | October Consumer Confidence (Preliminary) | Graphical display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | September Existing Home Sales [Annualized] | Graphical display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | September Existing Home Sales [Month-on-Month] | Graphical display |
* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day was a day lacking direction, moving within a range of correction while keeping an eye on the trend of US interest rates. Today, buying has been dominant since early Tokyo time, and the movement towards a weaker yen has strengthened slightly. Overall, it seems that the market will be trying to determine the balance between a continued strong dollar trend and correction, against the backdrop of policy expectations and interest rate trends.
The previous day saw selling dominate in the latter half of the European market due to the firmness of US interest rates and the sluggish performance of European indicators. Meanwhile, in New York, buying was driven by rising stock prices and position adjustments. There is also a view that the market has reached a level where it is easy to sell on a rebound, so we will need to assess the strength of selling pressure and the battle for market control around the turning point.
The previous day, GBPUSD saw selling of the pound dominate after the UK Consumer Price Index fell short of market expectations. The pair fell sharply during European trading hours, but in New York, buying occurred amid rising stock prices and a sense of relief for the dollar, allowing the pair to recover most of the losses. Today, we will be watching to see whether selling will intensify again or whether the pair can maintain its resilience.
The AUD/USD pair fluctuated yesterday amid a lack of material, but remained within a small range overall. No new economic indicators were released in Australia, and speculation about monetary policy has subsided. A wait-and-see mood is likely to continue today. The key to determining direction will be which way interest rates and stock market movements move.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Dollar buying dominated the day from Tokyo time onward, fueled by expectations of economic measures from the new Takaichi administration. It continued to perform strongly into European time. During New York time, it surpassed last week's high, briefly reaching the upper 152 yen range. However, profit-taking selling was also seen around Pivot R3, confirming the weight of the upside. Overall, while the dollar remained strong and the yen weakened, it was an impressive day with a battle for dominance around key milestones.
From Tokyo to Europe, the market continued to test the lower end, but as New York time approached, buying began and the market recovered slightly. However, it still did not reach the previous day's high, and the recovery was limited. Overall, there was a lack of new information, and the market continued to move without any sense of direction throughout the day.
During Tokyo trading, there was some bargain hunting but the momentum was weak, resulting in a range-bound trading session with little sense of direction. Even during London trading, the recovery was slow, and the market continued to show signs of being heavy on the upside. During New York trading, dollar buying became dominant, and the market moved to test the previous day's low, but the market closed with little movement as if time was running out.
Even with US interest rates remaining high, there was a sense of support for resource markets, and buying became dominant from European trading hours. The market tested the previous day's high, but then lost momentum, confirming the heavy upper limit. After that, buying picked up again during New York trading hours, and the market slightly surpassed the previous day's high. The market closed the day maintaining a high range, and overall it was a day marked by a solid bottom.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| Price Fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day saw a strong correction trend while keeping an eye on the trend of US interest rates, and the market continued to lack direction.
Buying has been dominant since the beginning of Tokyo time today, and the yen is showing signs of weakening slightly.
While the dollar remains strong overall, there are times when the upward momentum may slow down, so caution is needed.
Expected range
Expected range centered around 151.0 to 152.2
On the upside, sell-offs are expected just before the 152 yen level, while on the downside, buying on dips is likely to occur around 151 yen.
There is a possibility that a wait-and-see mood will intensify from Asian trading hours through early European trading hours.
tactics
The basic strategy is to buy on dips, with an eye on short-term rotation
Don't follow the rapid buying of the yen, focus on buying at the lower end
Respond calmly to temporary fluctuations in US interest rates and statements by Japanese authorities
trigger
A breakout above 152.2 will likely strengthen buying momentum
A break below 151.0 could accelerate short-term adjustments
US long-term interest rates and stock price trends after European trading hours are key to price movements
Nullification Conditions
If the yen clearly breaks below the upper 150 yen level, the dollar's upward bias will collapse.
If the authorities make any cautionary statements regarding the exchange rate, buying momentum is likely to weaken.
If risk aversion factors become dominant over interest rate differential factors, reassess your strategy.
Risk Event
US economic indicators postponed or resuming release (impact of government shutdown)
On the Japanese side, speculation about the national CPI on the 24th
Statements by officials and key figures, fluctuations in US interest rates
Position Management
Position sizes are limited to 50-70% of normal
Take profit around 152.0, stop loss below 150.8
After the event, focus on reducing your position
Checklist
Confirming the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Be careful of statements made by Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan officials
Check whether the price movements in Asia and Europe will continue until New York
Market Summary
On the previous day, selling was dominant in the latter half of Europe, while in New York, buying was ahead due to rising stock prices and position adjustments.
Today, there is a view that the price has reached a level where it is easy to sell due to a rebound, so attention will be focused on the battle around the turning point.
Interest rates and risk appetite continue to fluctuate, making it difficult to determine direction, but short-term fluctuations are likely to occur.
Expected range
Expected to see a range centered around 1.1550β1.1650
On the upside, beware of stalling of the recovery around 1.1650
On the downside, check for pullbacks around 1.1550
tactics
Basically, focus on selling on rebounds while also using range rotation
If the short-term rebound occurs, consider entering the market after the price reaches the resistance zone.
If the break is weak, do not pursue it too much and focus on rotation.
trigger
Breaking above 1.1650 will lead to a continuation scenario of a rebound attempt
Prioritize scenario of resumption of downward pressure if 1.1550 is broken
Statements by key figures during European trading hours and the direction of US interest rates in early New York trading are likely to be turning points.
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price remains above 1.1650, reassess the assumption of a pullback sell
If US interest rates fall and stock prices rise simultaneously, causing dollar selling to prevail, the market will be neutral.
Risk Event
ECB officials' remarks and European index headlines
Speculation on US data, including the re-release of the US CPI and weekly employment-related data
Changes in statistical schedules and delays in release due to partial government shutdowns
Position Management
Start with 50-70% of your normal size and then lighten up before the event.
When taking profits, consider splitting before milestones such as 1.1580 and 1.1620.
Stop loss is set just outside the level where the entry grounds are lost.
Checklist
Check whether the 1.1550β1.1650 range can be maintained
See if the direction of US long-term interest rates and stock prices is aligned
Examining ECB headline frequency and market reaction
Market Summary
The previous day, the UK consumer price index fell short of market expectations, leading to selling of the pound.
After a further decline during European trading hours, buying in New York narrowed the decline
Overall, the market is seeing a mix of selling on rallies and buying on dips, leaving the direction limited.
Expected range
Expected to see a range centered around 1.2600β1.2750
The upper limit is around 1.2750, so sell-offs are likely to occur, and the lower limit is expected to be around 1.2600.
Market conditions that tend to be linked to US interest rates and stock price movements
tactics
The basic strategy is to focus on selling on rallies and rotating within the range.
It is safer to wait for a rebound than to pick up shallow dips.
There is a possibility of volatile price movements before and after the event, so adjust your positions lightly.
trigger
Breaking above 1.2750 will likely see a short-term recovery
If the price falls below 1.2600, the market is likely to become dominated by selling again.
Comments made during European trading hours and the resumption of US indexes will be the catalyst for a change in direction
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price remains above 1.2750, reconsider your sell-on strategy.
Neutralize if UK fiscal headlines lead to increased pound buying
When risk aversion leads to increased dollar buying, streamline short-term positions
Risk Event
US CPI re-publication schedule and US interest rate trends
UK fiscal statistics and statements by key figures
Delays in indicators and market speculation due to partial US government shutdown
Position Management
Keep the size to about 50-70% of normal size
Take profits just before the upper limit of the range and set stop loss just below 1.2600.
Lighten your positions before the event to limit risk
Checklist
Confirming the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Check the frequency and reaction to UK finance-related headlines
Will the pound cross trend continue into New York during European trading hours?
Market Summary
The previous day saw a lack of clear information, and the price fluctuated up and down within a small range.
There are no new economic indicators in Australia, and speculation about monetary policy has subsided.
Overall, the market continues to take a wait-and-see stance due to a lack of direction.
Expected range
Expected range around 0.6440β0.6520
The upper limit is around 0.6520, which is prone to pullback selling, and the lower limit is around 0.6440.
There is little sense of direction, but small fluctuations within the range are expected.
tactics
The basic principle is to flexibly respond to dip buying and rally selling based on range rotation.
Until a clear trend emerges, focus on short-term trading and move flexibly
At both the upper and lower price milestones, assess the reaction and be mindful of taking profits in small increments
trigger
Breaking above 0.6520 will likely lead to a short-term recovery test
A break of 0.6440 will slightly strengthen the downward bias
Movements in US interest rates and stock prices after European trading hours are likely to be the trigger
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price remains above 0.6520, reconsider your sell-on strategy.
Neutralize if Australian dollar buying increases due to positive headlines related to Australia or China.
If the pattern clearly deviates from the range, switch to waiting and seeing.
Risk Event
Market reaction to scheduled US CPI re-release
Reports on China-related indicators and foreign trade
Rising volatility in the US stock market
Position Management
Position size is limited to about 50-60% of normal size
Consider splitting profits just before 0.6500 or around 0.6460
Set stop loss outside the level that clearly exceeds the most recent high and low
Checklist
Check whether US interest rates and stock indexes are aligned
Regularly monitor relevant Australian and Chinese headlines
Observe whether the range will continue to be maintained as the time shifts from Tokyo time to European time.
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Dollar buying prevailed on expectations of economic measures from the new Takaichi administration, and the dollar rose to the upper 152 yen range, but the upside was limited near the turning point.
summary
A day in which the dollar remained strong and the yen weakened consistently from Tokyo time
The move shows signs of an upward trend after breaking through last week's high
Profit-taking selling occurred around Pivot R3, and short-term adjustments were also seen.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, yen selling was ahead on expectations of stimulus measures from the Takaichi administration.
During European trading hours, the yen remained in the 152 yen range against the backdrop of high US interest rates.
During New York time, the price rose to around 152.70, then fell back slightly to close.
Background/materials
Reports that the Japanese government is considering large-scale economic measures are driving yen selling
The Bank's stance of prioritizing economic support over inflation control was confirmed, leading to widespread speculation that monetary easing will continue for a long period of time.
In the United States, long-term interest rates remained in the 4.6% range, supporting the dollar.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The immediate upper limit is around 152.80
151.60-151.80 is seen as a support zone
Although the RSI is in a slightly high range, it is maintaining a strong trend.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, it is approaching the upper limit of the ascending channel.
The 20-day moving average (around 150.80) acts as medium-term support
The momentum continues to be strong, with the price temporarily exceeding the upper limit of the Bollinger band.
Impressions
Policy expectations led to selling of the yen, but the market is unlikely to shift in one direction until the actual policy details become clear.
Concerns about foreign exchange intervention remain, so caution is needed when chasing higher prices
Trading Impressions
If you are buying at the latter half of 152 yen, you should prioritize taking profits.
At pullbacks, short-term trading is effective while checking the support in the upper 151 yen range
Beware of a decline in liquidity before and after the event
Checklist
Confirmation of the date for the announcement of Japan's economic stimulus package
Attention on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy-related statements
Continue to monitor US interest rate trends and changes in risk appetite
Looking back
Selling was dominant from Tokyo to Europe, but buying came in during New York time, resulting in a slight recovery.
summary
In the early stages, dollar buying was dominant and the euro fell
There was some buying back during New York hours, but the upside was limited
A lack of material has led to a lack of direction overall
Today's price movements
During Tokyo time, there was little movement, and the price was somewhat heavy
Dollar buying continues during European trading hours, with the euro weakening
There was a temporary buyback during New York time, but the price did not reach a new high and stalled.
Background/materials
US long-term interest rates remained high, leading to continued dollar-buying sentiment
Concerns about the US-China trade friction and the prolonged US government shutdown led to a widespread risk aversion.
A lack of new information ahead of the eurozone economic confidence index led to a wait-and-see attitude in trading.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The upside was heavy near the previous day's high, and sell-offs were dominant.
The downside is supported by the recent lows, and the price continues to consolidate.
Short-term direction is lacking, with equilibrium remaining
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, a small recovery is being attempted within a downtrend.
The moving average is flat and no clear signs of reversal are visible.
Although momentum is weakening, there is little sense of excessive oversold conditions.
Impressions
There was a lack of new information on the overall market, and the impression was that price movements were dominated by short-term investors.
While the dollar's strength is being recognized, the euro remains quiet with no decisive indicators.
Market participants' attention is shifting to the next economic indicators and policy statements
Trading Impressions
Repeated selling at high prices and short-term buying at low prices is effective
New entries at mid-points are risky and should be handled with caution.
It is safe to keep your positions light until the next indicator is announced.
Checklist
Eurozone economic sentiment and price-related indicators release schedule confirmed
Focus on US interest rate trends and trade-related news
Check for reaction near key technical levels
Looking back
During Tokyo hours, there was some bargain hunting but the momentum was weak, while during New York hours, dollar buying prevailed and the price tested the previous day's low.
summary
Although there was a small attempt to recover in the early stages, the overall movement lacked direction.
During London trading hours, the market was aware of the weakness in the upper limit, and sell-offs were dominant.
During New York time, the price attempted to push downwards, but ended trading without a major breakout.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price range was limited despite support from bargain hunting.
During European trading hours, selling continues on a rebound, dragging on from the previous day's selling pressure.
During New York time, the market tested the lower end amid a strong dollar trend, but ended the day with little movement.
Background/materials
The previous day's UK CPI fell short of expectations, raising speculation of a rate cut.
High interest rates and reports of trade friction in the US are supporting the dollar
A wait-and-see mood spread across the market ahead of the release of major indicators.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The upside is heavy near the most recent high, and there is concern about sell-offs.
The price is hesitant to fall below the previous day's low, and the price is moving within a range.
Short-term indicators remain weak, and the market is lacking momentum
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The gradual downward trend continues on the daily chart.
The slope of the moving average has flattened, and no clear trend reversal is evident.
Bollinger Bands are converging, and the price range is narrowing.
Impressions
The pound continued to trade with a heavy upper limit due to slowing inflation
Markets are cautious about US economic indicators and UK monetary policy outlook
Until the next event, the environment is likely to continue to be a mix of wait-and-see and short-term adjustments
Trading Impressions
The trend of chasing higher prices is limited, and in the short term, the trend is dominated by sell-offs.
Buybacks are likely to occur at low prices, and short-term contrarian strategies are in demand.
A strategy of keeping positions light is effective when there is little sense of direction
Checklist
Check UK economic indicators and schedule of BOE officials' comments
Keep a close eye on US interest rate trends and the dollar index
Check for reactions at key support and resistance levels
Looking back
Buying became dominant during European trading hours, and although there was a temporary slowdown, the price slightly surpassed the previous day's high during New York trading hours and closed at a high.
summary
The Australian dollar remains firm as investors are aware of the support it will provide to resource markets.
Buybacks dominate despite dollar-buying pressure due to high US interest rates
Overall, the market is testing the upper end of the price range, but the cautious mood continues.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: Small movements and lack of direction
As European trading begins, buying picks up on the back of firm resource prices
During New York time, the price rose again after forming a pullback, slightly reaching a new high.
Background/materials
Even as US long-term interest rates remain high, the dollar's strength has slowed somewhat
In Australia, expectations of further interest rate hikes have receded, and the country is taking a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy.
China's continued economic stimulus measures and strong resource prices supported the Australian dollar
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The upside was focused on the previous day's high, and after breaking through, profit-taking selling was seen.
The downside is supported by the recent lows, making it easier for buyers to buy on dips.
The short-term upward trend line is maintained and momentum continues moderately.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, it is moving above the 20-day moving average and maintaining a gradual upward trend.
The price is currently near the upper limit of the mid-term range, and is fluctuating while searching for a direction.
Approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger Band, momentum is slowing down
Impressions
The Australian dollar remains relatively stable amid a pause in the dollar's strength and firm resource prices.
With a lack of new policy information and economic indicators, price movements driven by position adjustments were prominent.
Overall, the market is on a quiet upward trend, reflecting the risk tolerance of market participants.
Trading Impressions
When chasing higher prices, be careful of short-term profit-taking sales
When a pullback is formed, short-term buying is effective while checking the support band.
Avoid unreasonable position expansion during range trading before an event
Checklist
Check out the Australian and Chinese economic indicator schedules
Keep a close eye on trends in US long-term interest rates and the dollar index
Check the correlation with fluctuations in major resource prices (copper and iron ore)
FX Journal