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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | September Trade Statistics (Customs Clearance Basis, Before Seasonal Adjustment) | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | September Trade Statistics (Customs Clearance Basis, Seasonally Adjusted) | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | September Consumer Price Index (CPI) [MoM] | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | September Consumer Price Index (CPI) [Year-on-year comparison] | Graphical display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | September Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index) [Year-on-Year Comparison] | Graphical display |
* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statements by VIPs | 🇪🇺 Europe | Statement by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde |
Today's Outlook
The USD/JPY weakened yesterday on expectations of fiscal expansion following the inauguration of the Takaichi administration. While this trend continues today, a pause in the rise is likely to lead to profit-taking. While trends in US interest rates will continue to support the dollar, we must also be cautious of price movements that could lead to a correction in the short term.
The previous day saw continued dollar buying due to firm US interest rates, which led to downward pressure from European trading hours through New York. In the short term, there were instances when the pair hesitated to fall below the 1.16 level, but the recovery was limited. The dollar is expected to continue to dominate today.
From Tokyo to Europe, selling of the pound led the way, and with the firmness of US interest rates also contributing to dollar buying, the market was dominated. However, there was also buying back at the lower end, and there were times when the dollar hesitated to fall. Today, attention will be focused not only on the dollar's movements, but also on position adjustments ahead of the UK fiscal indicators. Overall, it is expected that the market will continue to search for a sense of direction within a short-term range.
The previous day saw selling prevail during European trading hours, but buying back at the lower end led to a reluctance to fall. Today, the market is expected to continue searching for a direction within a short-term range, keeping an eye on trends in US interest rates and resource-related issues.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
The dollar/yen exchange rate today had limited clues due to a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting and domestic price indicators, as well as a lack of direction for US interest rates. In Tokyo, yen buying led the way due to a preference for safe assets, and then in Europe and New York, there was a mix of recovery and pullback. Neither the upward trend nor the downward trend continued, and the exchange rate generally remained within the range of correction, making for a day lacking in direction.
Selling prevailed in the latter half of the European session, driven by the firmness of US interest rates and the sluggish growth of eurozone indicators. Meanwhile, in New York, buying took the lead on the back of rising stock prices and position adjustments, recovering all of the losses. Ultimately, the market closed slightly higher.
The previous day saw selling dominate the pound-dollar exchange rate after the UK Consumer Price Index fell short of market expectations. The pound fell sharply during European trading hours, even falling below the benchmark level, but in New York, buying occurred on the back of rising stock prices and a sense of a lull in the dollar. As a result, the market recovered most of the losses, and trading ended with a lack of direction at the end of the day. Overall, after temporary price movements following the index results, it was a day dominated by adjustments.
With a lack of material, the market fluctuated up and down, but remained within a small range overall. During European trading hours, selling on the rebound was dominant, while in New York, buying due to position adjustments took the lead. Towards the end of the day, the market fluctuated around key points, and the sense of direction was limited.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
①Upper limit of range
②Range lower limit
①Upper limit of range
②Range lower limit
①Upper limit of range
②Range lower limit
①Upper limit of range
②Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The yen continued to weaken against the backdrop of expectations for fiscal expansion following the birth of the Takaichi administration, and the dollar/yen exchange rate remained in a high range.
Expected range
Around 151.00 to 152.30
tactics
The basic stance is to be mindful of buying on dips, but be cautious about chasing higher prices.
Anticipating a short-term adjustment phase, we want to assess the reaction around turning points.
trigger
Breaking above 152.30 could lead to renewed momentum for a weaker yen
A break below 151.00 signals a short-term correction.
Statements by key figures in the morning in Tokyo and trends in US long-term interest rates are likely to be short-term turning points.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly falls below 151.00 and remains at the closing price, we will postpone our buying strategy for the time being.
Even if risk-off sentiment intensifies due to falling US interest rates and falling stock prices, we will refrain from chasing higher prices.
Risk Event
Nationwide CPI (September) scheduled for release on October 23rd
US unemployment insurance claims and other key indicators
Statements by foreign exchange authorities and government officials, and comments warning of intervention
Position Management
Entry is targeted at pullbacks around 151.20 to 151.50
Profit taking is expected around 152.20, and stop loss is expected below 150.80.
Keep position size to about 50-70% of normal, and prioritize adjustments before events
Checklist
Check whether the pullback around 151.00 can be maintained
Check the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Beware of government and Bank of Japan comments on foreign exchange
Market Summary
With US interest rates remaining firm, dollar buying prevailed, putting downward pressure on the euro/dollar exchange rate.
In the short term, the yen showed signs of hesitation in falling below 1.16, but the recovery remained limited.
Expected range
Around 1.1550 to 1.1650
tactics
The basic stance is to focus on selling on rallies and respond carefully to rebounds on the upside.
Even if there is a short-term correction, we should be aware of selling pressure again at the resistance zone.
trigger
Breaking above 1.1600 will test short-term recovery
If the price breaks 1.1550, downward momentum is likely to strengthen.
VIP comments during European trading hours and US interest rate trends could be turning points
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 1.1650 and maintains it on a closing price basis, we will postpone the sell-on-return strategy.
If US interest rates fall sharply and dollar selling becomes dominant, the strategy will be suspended.
Risk Event
US CPI (re-release) scheduled for release on October 24th
US unemployment insurance claims and other employment-related data
Statements by ECB board members and important figures (such as Vice President de Guindos)
Position Management
Consider selling when the price rebounds to around 1.1600-1.1620
Take profits around 1.1550, stop losses above 1.1650
Position size is about 50-70% of normal, and will be reduced before events
Checklist
Check whether the range of 1.1550-1.1650 can be maintained
Check the direction of US long-term interest rates and the dollar index
Check out what ECB officials have to say and how the market is reacting
Market Summary
On the previous day, selling of the pound was dominant due to concerns about the UK's finances, while buying of the dollar continued.
There was some buying back at the lower end, and the price was reluctant to fall in the upper 1.33 range.
Expected range
Around 1.3340 to 1.3500
tactics
For the time being, focus on selling on pullbacks, and carefully consider entering at the upper resistance zone.
We expect trading to rotate within a range, with short-term buybacks expected at the lower end.
trigger
A break above 1.3500 could strengthen the pullback test
Breaking 1.3340 will increase downward momentum
Pay attention to UK finance-related headlines and US interest rate trends scheduled during European hours
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 1.3500 and maintains it on a closing price basis, we will postpone the pullback selling scenario for the time being.
Even if concerns about the UK's finances subside and risk appetite prevails, a review of the strategy will be necessary.
Risk Event
UK finance-related news and government officials' statements
US Existing Home Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims
Speculation over the re-release of the US CPI the next day
Position Management
Consider entry on a rebound to around 1.3460-1.3480
Take profit around 1.3360, stop loss above 1.3520
Limit position size to 50-70% of normal and prioritize risk mitigation before the event
Checklist
Check whether the 1.3340-1.3500 range can be maintained
Check the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Keep a close eye on UK finance-related news and statements by key figures
Market Summary
On the previous day, selling of the Australian dollar was dominant during European trading hours, but buying back at the lower end of the market prevented the dollar from falling.
Overall, the market remains in a range-bound correction mode, with no clear direction emerging.
Expected range
Around 0.6450 to 0.6520
tactics
For the time being, we will focus on range rotation, selling on rebounds at the top and buying on short-term dips at the bottom.
As materials are being waited for, flexible responses are required to take advantage of short-term fluctuations.
trigger
A breakout above 0.6520 could strengthen the rebound test
If it breaks 0.6450, downward pressure is likely to come back.
Fluctuations in US interest rates and commodity prices (iron ore and gold) are likely to be short-term triggers
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price clearly breaks above 0.6520, postpone the pullback selling strategy for the time being.
If US interest rates fall sharply and dollar selling becomes dominant, the downward pressure assumption will be invalidated.
Risk Event
US Existing Home Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims
Resource-related news (especially iron ore prices and Chinese economic indicators)
Position adjustments ahead of the US CPI re-release the next day
Position Management
Consider entry when the price rebounds to around 0.6500-0.6510
Take profit around 0.6460, stop loss above 0.6530
Before the event, limit your position size to about 50-70% of normal and be careful of slippage when liquidity decreases.
Checklist
Check whether the 0.6450-0.6520 range can be maintained
Keep a close eye on the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Check fluctuations in resource markets (iron ore and gold)
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
The dollar/yen exchange rate remained in a narrow range today amid a wait-and-see mood ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting and domestic price indicators.
summary
During Asian trading hours, yen buying temporarily took the lead due to a desire for safe assets, but then buying back came in and the market recovered.
There was also a small amount of movement from Europe to New York, reflecting the trends in US interest rates and stock prices.
The market lacked direction and remained within the range of adjustment.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, yen buying was dominant and there were occasions when the exchange rate was temporarily pushed back.
After European trading hours, there was a buying spree, and trading in New York was again mostly within a range.
In the final stages, the price remained in a narrow range, centered around the 151 yen range
Background/materials
Domestically, expectations for the Takaichi administration's economic measures are mixed with cautionary statements from the Ministry of Finance
In the US, the government shutdown delayed the release of key statistics, and interest rates also lacked direction.
With the national CPI due for release over the weekend, investors are in a wait-and-see mood ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The upper limit is expected to be around 152 yen, making it likely that there will be sell-offs on the back of the price.
The lower limit is supported at around 151 yen, and in the short term the focus is on maintaining the lower end of the range.
Volatility is declining, with trading dominated by short-term investors
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The price continues to move around the 20-day moving average, and the direction is unclear.
The weekly chart shows that the price is on an upward trend, but the 152 yen barrier is likely to be a concern.
If the yen falls below the upper 150 yen range, temporary adjustments may intensify.
Impressions
Market remains quiet ahead of policy events, with price movements limited
Wariness of intervention is a certain inhibiting factor
It appears that many of the participants want to see how things will turn out after the event.
Trading Impressions
In short-term trading, it is effective to make small movements after checking the reaction of the upper and lower limits of the range.
It is not the time to take a large position, so avoid times of low liquidity
There is also a decision to keep positions light in preparation for after the event has passed.
Checklist
Focus on statements by key figures and reports ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting
Confirmation of correlation between US interest rates and stock prices
Determine whether the 151-152 yen range can be maintained
Looking back
Although selling of the euro was dominant in the latter half of the European market, buying in New York led to a slight increase.
summary
The firmness of US interest rates and sluggish growth in eurozone indicators weighed on the dollar, temporarily encouraging dollar buying.
During New York time, rising stock prices and position adjustments weighed on the dollar's upside, while the euro recovered.
Overall, it was a day with a lack of direction, fluctuating up and down.
Today's price movements
There was little movement during Tokyo trading hours, and selling on rebounds was dominant from the early European session
Downward pressure intensified in the latter half of the European market, but buying in New York led the way and eliminated the decline.
Towards the end of the day, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed again, and trading ended slightly in positive territory.
Background/materials
Eurozone economic and price indicators sluggish, and concerns about economic slowdown trigger euro selling
The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key statistics, limiting the dollar's impact.
The dollar's correction progressed in New York following the recovery of risk assets.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The upside is likely to be suppressed near the moving average, and selling pressure on rebounds is expected.
The downside was supported by the previous day's low level, and the price will remain within a range in the short term.
Volatility has declined slightly, and the direction is still being explored.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price is attempting a short-term recovery within a downtrend.
The price continues to move below the medium-term moving average, and the upward movement is heavy during the recovery phase.
The psychological turning point has not been overcome, and downward pressure remains
Impressions
There is a lack of new information in both the US and Europe, and overall the market remains within the range of adjustment.
Price movements driven by position adjustments are prominent, and no clear trend has formed.
Markets are entering a quiet period in anticipation of upcoming policy events
Trading Impressions
In the short term, the focus is on selling on rebounds at the upper limit of the range and buying on dips at the lower limit
Given the decline in volatility, it is safe to take a cautious approach by limiting position sizes.
It is advisable not to push too hard while waiting for the resumption of index releases and statements by key figures.
Checklist
Check out Eurozone PMI and CPI headlines
Keep an eye on whether there is any change in the correlation between US interest rates and stock prices
Check for signals that suggest a reversal of the medium-term trend
Looking back
Although selling of the pound was dominant following the UK CPI forecast being lower than expected, buying in New York eliminated the decline.
summary
During European trading hours, the pound fell sharply following inflation data results, accelerating selling mainly among short-term investors.
In New York, short covering progressed, supported by a sense of relief for the dollar and rising stock prices.
As a result, the market maintained the previous day's low price, and the market closed without any sense of direction in the final stages.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: wait-and-see, little movement
The decline intensified following weak CPI results in early Europe, briefly falling below the benchmark.
In New York, the market rebounded on the back of dollar selling and rising stock prices, returning to its range.
Background/materials
UK CPI falls short of market expectations, reviving speculation of interest rate cut this year
In the US, there are limited releases of indicators, and most of the trading is short-term, linked to interest rate and stock price trends.
Uncertainty over the policy outlook led to continued price movements driven by position adjustments.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The recovery after the sharp drop almost erased the intraday range, and the direction returned to neutral.
The upside tends to be suppressed near the short-term moving average, and selling pressure on rebounds remains
The downside rebounded near the previous day's low, which is seen as short-term support.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The downward trend remains dominant on the daily chart.
Selling pressure is likely to remain during a recovery phase, and there is a lack of material for a trend reversal.
In the medium term, the price will likely remain stable at low levels.
Impressions
After a brief sell-off in the pound following the CPI results, the market was dominated by corrections
Trends in US interest rates and stock markets will be key to clarifying the direction
The market is increasingly waiting for events, with short-term price movements taking the lead.
Trading Impressions
A level where sell-offs are expected in the short term
As the rebound continues after the sudden fluctuation, it is safe to keep positions light
Short-term buying is also on the cards once support is confirmed.
Checklist
Check UK inflation indicators and key figures
Keep a close eye on US interest rates and the dollar index
Determine entry timing by identifying when volatility is shrinking or expanding
Looking back
With a lack of material, the market fluctuated up and down, but overall remained within a small range.
summary
No new economic data from Australia leaves markets lacking clues on monetary policy
US interest rates also fluctuated little, and the foreign exchange market continued to move without any sense of direction.
After a sell-off in Europe became dominant, buying back progressed in New York due to position adjustments.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the market continued to move slightly within the previous day's range, and there was a wait-and-see mood.
As European trading began, dollar buying dominated, pushing the market down, but buying back occurred at the lower end.
In New York, buying prevailed as interest rates stabilized, approaching the upper limit of the range.
Background/materials
In Australia, there is a lack of new news, and expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy have eased.
In the US, the release of some indicators was delayed, resulting in a lack of trading material overall.
Commodity prices are mixed, with Australian dollar movements limited
Technical Memo (Short Term)
A stagnant market where the upper and lower limits of the range are taken into consideration
The battle continues around the short-term moving average, with no clear direction.
Volatility is declining, waiting for the next trend
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The market remains within a range in the medium term
There are few signs of a trend reversal, and the focus is on confirming support and resistance levels.
Trading volume is also on a downward trend, and a clear breakthrough is expected.
Impressions
There were few new clues in either Australia or the US, and the day was one of wait-and-see.
Market attention is shifting to future trends in US interest rates and risk assets
The environment is likely to remain quiet for the time being
Trading Impressions
In the short term, selling on rebounds at the upper limit of the range and buying on dips at the lower limit are expected
It is safe to reduce position size when volatility is declining
A strategy to avoid excessive positions is appropriate as we are waiting for new information.
Checklist
Check the schedule for major Australian and US indexes
Understand the direction of commodity markets (iron ore, gold, crude oil)
Observe the volume and reaction near the upper and lower limits of the range
FX Journal