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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | β | August Machinery Orders [Month-on-month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π―π΅ Japan | β | August Machinery Orders [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¦πΊ Australia | β | September new hires |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¦πΊ Australia | β | September unemployment rate |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¬π§ England | β β | August Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [MoM] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¬π§ England | β | August Manufacturing Production Index [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¬π§ England | β | August Industrial Production [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¬π§ England | β | August Industrial Production [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | October NAHB Housing Market Index |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statements by VIPs | πͺπΊ Europe | Statement by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde |
Today's Outlook
The previous day saw a sell-off in Tokyo and a recovery in Europe, but selling again dominated in New York. The firmness of the lower end has yet to be confirmed, and today we will be looking to see where the lower end can be consolidated.
The previous day, buying was ahead from Tokyo to Europe, and although it was pushed down in New York, buying returned and it closed in the high range. However, it did not give the impression of consolidating at the top, so it is necessary to determine at what point it will remain high.
The previous day, buying was ahead from Tokyo to Europe, and in New York, after a drop in prices, buying picked up again and the market closed at a high. However, the market has not yet confirmed that it has stabilized at a higher level, so it will be important to see where it will remain high.
The previous day, the price was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after a brief push in New York, buying resumed, narrowing the decline. While the upper limit remains heavy, it cannot be said that selling is dominant, and we will need to gauge the strength and weakness of the price through a battle around 0.65.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
During Tokyo trading, buying was dominant. In Europe, the decline was initially halted, but in New York, dollar selling intensified due to the decline in US interest rates, limiting the recovery. The market closed at a low level at the end of the day.
The euro was supported by a pause in the dollar's strength, as investors focused on the sluggish growth of US interest rates and the ECB's stance depending on data. Tokyo and Europe continued to trade in a range with little sense of direction as investors waited for new information. In New York, buying prevailed on the back of falling US interest rates, and there were occasional flows to pick up dips. In the final stages, the market tested the upper limit, closing in the high range.
Expectations of a slowdown in UK wages and inflation and the Bank of England's cautious stance kept prices down, while sluggish US interest rates put a halt to the dollar's strength. During European trading hours, the market remained directional, waiting for new information. In the short term, there was a mix of selling on gains and buying on dips, limiting the price range. In New York, there was buying back, and there were instances where the market tested the upper limit, but the market closed slightly higher in the final stages.
The market was focused on sluggish US interest rates, the RBA's stance depending on data, trends in China, and fluctuations in resource prices, limiting the sense of direction. From Tokyo to Europe, markets continued to fluctuate as investors waited for new information. Traffic in New York also continued to move back and forth. The recovery was slow in the final stages, and the market closed slightly lower amid a sense of weight on the upside.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| Price Fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
β Range lower limit
There is no upper limit that people are likely to be conscious of, so round numbers and other factors are likely to be taken into consideration.
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
Fluctuations in US interest rates and government restraints remain key factors, with concerns about intervention likely to keep prices from rising.
The previous day saw a sell-off in Tokyo, which recovered in Europe, but selling became dominant again in New York, and the firmness of the bottom price is unclear.
Today, we expect a battle for the 151 yen range due to the strength of actual demand flow and short-term investors.
Expected range
Around 150.50 to 152.00
The focus will be on whether the 150.50 level can be maintained, and if it breaks, there will be room for confirmation around 150.00.
On the upside, 151.90 to 152.00 is the target for a return, and if it exceeds that, the next resistance will be around 152.70.
tactics
Basically, use a combination of buying on dips and selling on rallies, focusing on range rotation.
While watching the reaction between 150.50 and 151.00, beware of a slowdown in the upward movement between 151.90 and 152.00
The size is kept low during the break phase, and the lure gradually follows.
trigger
Breaking above 152.00 will likely result in short-term buying.
If the price breaks 151.00, downward pressure is likely to intensify, so keep an eye on the battle as it approaches 150.50
Pay attention to actual demand in the morning in Tokyo and the time of US indexes and statements by important figures in New York time
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price continues to clearly exceed 152.00, we will reconsider prioritizing selling on rebounds.
If the price clearly falls below 150.00 and continues to update its lows, we will hold off on buying on dips.
If the volume continues to decline and the price range narrows, switch to waiting for a break
Risk Event
US economic indicators and comments from Fed officials
Changes in comments and stance of Japanese authorities regarding foreign exchange
Geopolitical headlines and stock market fluctuations
Position Management
Position size starts at half the normal size and increases or decreases gradually upon triggering.
Take profit is approximately 20 to 30 pips, and stop loss is set at the most recent high or low.
There is a maximum of two entries in the same direction, and if you fail consecutively, there is a cooldown.
Checklist
Plate thickness and reaction of 151.00 and 151.90-152.00
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Statements by the Japanese authorities, hints at intervention, and market reaction
Market Summary
The euro remains firm despite a pause in the dollar's strength, driven by sluggish US interest rates and the ECB's wait-and-see stance.
After leading the buying in Tokyo and Europe, the market was temporarily pushed down in New York, but buying then returned and the market closed in the high range.
However, the consolidation of the upper limit has not been confirmed, and the focus for the time being is on determining whether the price will remain high.
Expected range
Around 1.1580 to 1.1660
Below, we can see the depth of the pullback between 1.1580 and 1.1600.
On the upside, check whether the recovery will slow down around 1.1630-1.1660
tactics
Basically, prioritize buying on dips while assuming range rotation
In a downtrend, wait until the price reacts to around 1.1600 before entering
On the upside, when the recovery slowed down, short-term selling was also used.
trigger
Breaking above 1.1660 will likely result in short-term buying.
If the price breaks below 1.1580, stop selling is likely, so be careful of downward pressure
Pay attention to the widening fluctuations before and after the European market entry and the New York market index
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price continues to clearly exceed 1.1660, reconsider the assumption of a pullback sell.
If the price clearly breaks below 1.1560 and continues to update its lows, we will hold off on buying on dips.
If the volume declines and the price range narrows, switch to waiting for a break
Risk Event
ECB remarks and eurozone inflation-related headlines
Major indicators affecting US interest rates and statements by Fed officials
Risk aversion due to geopolitical and stock market fluctuations
Position Management
The initial movement starts at about half the normal size and gradually increases and decreases.
Profit taking is approximately 20 to 30 pips, and stop loss is mechanically executed when the most recent high or low price is broken.
Re-entry in the same direction is limited to a maximum of two times to avoid consecutive losses
Checklist
Check the order book and reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1660
Regularly monitor the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Examining the tone of ECB headlines and how markets are pricing them in
Market Summary
The pound is on a recovery trend, but is also aware of its upper limit, as sluggish US interest rates and the Bank of England's cautious stance clash.
Buying was ahead in Tokyo and Europe, and after a temporary drop in NY, buying returned and the market closed at a high.
The upside has not been confirmed, and the focus today is on determining whether the price will remain high.
Expected range
Around 1.3330 to 1.3450
Below, the depth of the pullback is confirmed at 1.3330-1.3350
On the upside, check whether the recovery will slow down around 1.3400-1.3450
tactics
Basically, prioritize buying on dips based on range rotation
In the upper range, short-term selling on rallies will be used in combination, and the following will be done gradually.
Before and after the indicator, keep the size low and see the reaction before participating
trigger
A break above 1.3460 is likely to trigger short-term buying
If the price breaks below 1.3330, stop selling is likely, so be careful of downward pressure
Pay attention to the time of arrival in London and US indicators and statements by important figures in New York time
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price continues to clearly exceed 1.3460, reconsider the assumption of a pullback sell.
If the price clearly breaks below 1.3300 and continues to update its lows, we will hold off on buying on dips.
If the price range narrows and the volume decreases, switch to waiting for a break
Risk Event
UK employment and price news and comments from BOE officials
Major indicators affecting US interest rates and statements by Fed officials
Risk aversion caused by stock market and geopolitical headlines
Position Management
The initial movement starts at about half the normal size, and gradually increases or decreases when the trigger is established.
Take profit is approximately 20 to 30 pips, and stop loss is executed mechanically when the price breaks through the most recent high and low.
Re-entry in the same direction is limited to a maximum of two times to avoid consecutive losses
Checklist
Plate thickness and reaction at 1.3330 and 1.3400-1.3450
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Tone of BOE-related headlines and market pricing
Market Summary
The sluggish growth of US interest rates and the RBA's cautious stance are intertwined, and the Australian dollar is attempting to recover but is perceived as having difficulty moving higher.
The previous day, the market was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down once in New York, buying resumed and the market closed with a smaller decline.
Currently, the battle continues around 0.65, and it is being determined which flow will prevail.
Expected range
Around 0.6480 to 0.6620
Below, we see the depth of the pullback at 0.6500 and 0.6480.
On the upside, check whether the recovery will slow down around 0.6600-0.6620
tactics
The basic strategy is to rotate within the range, and prioritize buying on dips below.
At the upper end of the range, wait for signs of a slowdown in the recovery and use short-term selling on the recovery.
Keep the size low just before the event, and then gradually participate after seeing the reaction
trigger
A break above 0.6620 is expected to lead to short-term buying.
If the price breaks below 0.6480, stop selling is likely to occur, so be wary of downward pressure
Pay attention to the increase in volatility in the Tokyo afternoon, early London, and around the New York index.
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price continues to stay above 0.6640, reconsider the assumption of selling on a rebound.
If the price clearly breaks below 0.6460 and continues to hit new lows, we will hold off on buying on dips.
If the price range narrows and the volume decreases, switch to waiting for a break
Risk Event
Australian employment news and RBA officials' comments
Interest rate fluctuations due to major US indicators and statements by Fed officials
Sentiment changes due to sudden fluctuations in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
Position Management
The initial movement starts at about half the normal size, and gradually increases or decreases when a trigger is established.
Profit taking is approximately 20 to 30 pips, and stop loss is mechanically executed when the price breaks through the most recent high and low.
Re-entry in the same direction is limited to a maximum of two times to avoid consecutive losses
Checklist
Reactions to the price at 0.6500 and 0.6600-0.6620
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Tone of RBA comments and China headlines
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Buying dominated in Tokyo, but growth in Europe was sluggish. In New York, dollar selling intensified as US interest rates fell, closing at a low.
summary
The sluggish growth of US interest rates has led to a pause in the dollar's strength, and the price remains heavy on the upside.
Expectations of a government crackdown have discouraged investors from chasing higher prices, making it difficult for the initial break to continue.
The day was dominated by a range with significant movement between 151.00 and 151.60.
Today's price movements
Tokyo is being supported by a search for a pullback, but Europe's recovery is slowing down
In New York, falling interest rates have led to increased selling, limiting recovery
The closing price was around 151.00.
Background/materials
The environment is difficult to determine direction due to the US interest rate plateau and awaiting indicators.
On the Japanese side, authorities' warnings and speculation of intervention are limiting the upside
Changes in stock risk appetite affect short-term flows
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the upside, the resistance zone for a rebound is 151.60β151.90
The downside is 151.00, which is the immediate turning point, and there is room for a test of 150.50 if it breaks.
Short-term MA is flat and oscillator is in neutral zone
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
Unless 152.00 is established, preference for selling on pullbacks will remain
150.00 is a psychological turning point that measures the continuity of downward pressure
The daily chart has a small body and prominent shadows, suggesting a slowdown in the trend
Impressions
Despite waiting for new information, the market appears to be highly sensitive to interest rate headlines, leading to volatile price movements.
The initial direction is likely to reverse, so follow carefully
Trading Impressions
The range rotates around the pullback near 151.00 and the retracement near 151.60.
If the break doesn't continue to come in small, immediately withdraw
Before and after the event, limit the size and manage stop-loss orders tightly
Checklist
Confirm the thickness and contract of 151.00 and 151.60
US interest rates and dollar index move in the same direction
Check whether there are any government-related headlines and how much they are factored into the market
Looking back
The euro closed at a high as the dollar's strength eased amid concerns over the sluggish growth of US interest rates and the ECB's stance depending on data.
summary
Although the direction is limited, the number of periods when buying is dominant is increasing, and the market is more likely to pick up dips.
The break is unlikely to continue as events await, and the price range fluctuates depending on the time of day.
Today's price movements
Tokyo remains firm amid small movements, while Europe also sees early gains
Growth in Europe stagnated in the second half of the year, but in New York, interest rates fell and buying intensified, resulting in a closing high.
Background/materials
Slowing US data momentum and expectations of interest rates hitting a plateau keep dollar in check
ECB continues to rely on data, with hawkish and dovish views mixed
Equity and credit risk tolerance determines short-term flows
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the upside, 1.1660β1.1680 is the resistance zone for a rebound.
On the downside, 1.1600-1.1580 is a potential support point, and 1.1550 is being checked for a break.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
Be cautious about chasing higher prices unless 1.1700 is established
The daily chart continues to move at the upper end of the range, and the direction is awaiting further information.
Impressions
Fakes are likely to occur at the beginning, so it is effective to divide the follow-up and clarify the withdrawal criteria.
Note that there is high sensitivity to interest rate headlines
Trading Impressions
The basic strategy is to rotate between different ranges, buy on dips at the bottom, and sell on rallies at the top.
If the growth slows down, prioritize rotation efficiency by taking profits early and follow up with a small break
Checklist
Plate thickness and initial reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1660
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Presence or absence of ECB-related headlines and their degree of incorporation
Looking back
Europe was awaiting news and remained directional, but a buying spree in New York led to a slight increase.
summary
Sluggish US interest rates put a halt to the dollar's strength, supporting the pound
On the other hand, expectations of a slowdown in UK wages and inflation and the Bank of England's cautious stance will limit the upside
Today's price movements
Tokyo saw little movement, while Europe saw a gradual rise in the early stages but stagnated in the second half.
In New York, there were times when buying prevailed, and the market closed slightly higher after testing the upper limit.
Background/materials
Market conditions that tend to be linked to fluctuations in high-frequency indicators such as US housing and business sentiment, and US bond yields
The UK continues to be cautious about the strength of the real economy and is sensitive to headlines
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The upper limit will return to 1.3430β1.3450, a range where selling pressure is expected.
On the downside, 1.3350-1.3330 is a potential support point, with 1.3300 being the psychological turning point.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
If multiple bars do not settle above 1.3450, the focus will be on a return to the range
If the price continues to break below 1.3330, the range will likely shift downwards
Impressions
It is easy to get caught up in initial fakes, so it is important to check that the time period and interest rates are trending in the same direction.
The price range is limited, and it seems that rotation within the upper and lower bands is likely to work well in the short term.
Trading Impressions
The basic strategy is to rotate between different ranges, buying on dips below and selling on rallies above.
Take profits in 15-25 pip increments, and stop losses are managed at 10-20 pips before the most recent high or low.
Checklist
Plate thickness and initial reaction at 1.3350 and 1.3430
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Presence or absence of BOE-related headlines and the degree to which the market has factored them in
Looking back
Markets in Tokyo and Europe were in a state of flux as investors waited for news, while New York saw a slow recovery after traffic and closed slightly lower
summary
While sluggish US interest rates are putting a halt to the dollar's strength, the Australian dollar's upside is limited
The impact of trends in China and fluctuations in resource prices has been mixed
The battle around 0.6500 continues, and the direction is awaited by the next piece of information.
Today's price movements
Tokyo remains firm with little movement, but the upside remains sluggish
Europe tries to recover but fails to maintain momentum and returns to the range
NY reacts to interest rate headlines, with trading continuing and slightly lower in the final stages
Background/materials
RBA remains data-dependent, guidance limited
Slowing US data and expectations of interest rates hitting a plateau are limiting the dollar's upside
China-related news and fluctuations in resource prices influence sentiment
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the upside, 0.6540β0.6560 is the resistance zone for pullback selling.
On the downside, 0.6500β0.6480 is a potential support point, and a break below 0.6450 is being examined.
Short-term oscillators are in the neutral zone with little bias
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
Multiple bars above 0.6560 confirm potential for a move towards 0.6600
Stagnation below 0.6480 suggests a downward shift in the range
The daily chart shows little substance, so we will wait for the next piece of information to determine the trend.
Impressions
Fakes are likely to occur at the beginning, so it is effective to divide the follow-up and clarify the withdrawal criteria.
Be aware of spreads and slippage during thin order periods
Trading Impressions
The basic principle is to use range rotation as the axis, buying on dips below and selling on rallies above.
Profit taking is done in 10-20 pip increments, with emphasis on rotation efficiency
Limit stop loss to 10-20 pips before the most recent high or low, and reduce the size before the event
Checklist
Plate thickness and initial response at 0.6500 and 0.6540
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
RBA-related headlines and news from China
FX Journal