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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | β | September Consumer Price Index (CPI) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¨π³ China | β | September Producer Price Index (PPI) [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | August Industrial Production [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | August Industrial Production [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | October New York Fed Manufacturing Index |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | Beige Book: Report on Economic Conditions of the Federal Reserve Banks of the United States |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day, while keeping an eye on US interest rate trends, the market lacked direction and continued to move within a small range. As the market is prone to swings both up and down, we must continue to pay close attention to initial price movements.
Although the euro was sold during European trading hours the previous day, buying came in during New York trading hours and the lower end was solidified. We need to see at what level the upside will be heavy and selling on the rebound will intensify.
The previous day, the UK wage index was slightly weak, which led to selling of the pound during European trading hours, but during New York trading hours, a pause in the dollar's strength led to buying back and a movement to consolidate the lower end. Today, we will be watching to see if selling on the rebound intensifies as the market tests the upper end.
The Australian dollar was sold off during European trading hours the previous day, but during New York trading hours, a pause in the dollar's strength led to buying back and reduced the decline. Although the bottom has not yet been consolidated, the short-term downside is being confirmed as being heavy, and today we will be keeping an eye on the upper resistance and assessing the momentum of the recovery.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Although it was sold off in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, selling was again dominant in New York. The firmness of the lower end has not yet been confirmed, and the reaction to 151.00 became the focus of attention.
The ECB's wait-and-see attitude and the sluggish growth of US interest rates were in focus, and a pause in the dollar's strength supported the euro. Buying was ahead from Tokyo to Europe, and although it was pushed down in the early hours of the New York market from Europe, buying resumed and the euro closed in the high range.
While the slowdown in UK wage growth and the Bank of England's cautious stance were in focus, the sluggish growth of US interest rates led to a pause in the dollar's strength. Buying was ahead from Tokyo to Europe, but growth stagnated in the latter half of Europe. In New York, the market was pushed down for a time, but buying returned and the market closed in the high range.
The sluggish growth of US interest rates has led to a pause in the dollar's strength, supporting the Australian dollar. Buying was ahead from Tokyo to Europe, and after a brief push in New York, buying returned, narrowing the decline. While the market remains heavy on the upside, it cannot be said that selling was dominant.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| Price Fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
β Range lower limit
There is no upper limit that people are likely to be conscious of, so round numbers and other factors are likely to be taken into consideration.
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
On the previous day, despite being aware of US interest rate trends, no new direction was seen, and the yen continued to fluctuate in a narrow range in the lower 152 yen range.
The decline in expectations of a US interest rate cut and the Bank of Japan's cautious stance are in balance, with price movements remaining limited as we enter the middle of the week.
With US economic indicators and key figures due to be released today, there is a possibility of short-term changes during this time of increased liquidity.
Expected range
Around 151.80 to 152.70
The focus is on whether the upside can exceed 152.70
The indicator for the adjustment will be whether the downside falls below 151.80.
tactics
In the short term, we will focus on range rotation and prepare for a breakout either up or down.
Consider buying if the price breaks above the target, and selling if the price breaks below the target.
In the event of sudden fluctuations, lighten your position and leave room for observation.
trigger
On the upside, a break above 152.70 could gain momentum
If the price falls below 151.80, stop selling is likely to be triggered.
Wait and see in the morning in Tokyo, focus on developments after US index releases in New York
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly falls below 151.50
If the closing price does not break above 152.70, the upward scenario will be put on hold for the time being.
If price range is limited and volatility decreases, we will hold off.
Risk Event
US retail sales, corporate earnings reports, Fed official comments
Japanese political news and comments from the Ministry of Finance
Geopolitical risk aversion: yen buying
Position Management
Limit each position to about half the usual amount
Take profits at 20-30 pips, and set stop losses based on the most recent highs and lows.
When changing direction, do not try to maintain the opening price but withdraw flexibly
Checklist
Regularly monitor trends in US interest rates and the dollar index
Actual demand flow in the Tokyo market and whether there were any intervention warning statements
Volatility and trading volume changes before and after the release of US indexes
Market Summary
On the previous day, selling of the euro was dominant during European trading hours, but buying came in during New York trading hours, consolidating the lower end.
The yen continued to move slightly in the upper 1.15 range as investors took note of a pause in rising US interest rates and a correction in the dollar's strength.
Overall, there is little sense of direction, and in the short term, we need to assess the balance between recovery momentum and selling pressure.
Expected range
Around 1.1530 to 1.1680
The mid-1.15 range is seen as the lower limit, with around 1.17 seen as upper resistance.
Volatility is expected to decline slightly and remain within a narrow range.
tactics
While focusing on selling on rebounds, consider short-term buying on dips after confirming the bottom
Flexible response with consideration for selling at the upper limit of the range and buying at the lower limit
Avoid excessive following in one direction when indicators are released
trigger
A breakout above 1.1700 could boost short-term buying
A break below 1.1530 is likely to trigger stop selling
Pay attention to the time of US retail sales and important speeches
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price clearly exceeds 1.1700, temporarily withdraw the pullback selling strategy.
If it breaks below 1.1500, be wary of the risk of a reversal of the trend to the downside
If the price range continues to narrow, shift to waiting for a break
Risk Event
US retail sales, comments from Fed officials, price indexes in major European countries
Geopolitical risks and sudden fluctuations in energy prices
Policy-related comments by ECB members
Position Management
Adjust position size to less than half of normal size
Take profit at 20-30 pips, stop loss based on the most recent high and low
When a break occurs, close gradually without bias in one direction
Checklist
Regularly monitor US interest rate trends and the direction of the dollar index
European economic indicators and the tone of ECB officials' comments
Trading volume and price movements during the period of increased liquidity during New York hours
Market Summary
The previous day, weak UK wage data led to selling of the pound during European trading hours.
During New York trading hours, the dollar's strength eased and buying began, with the price consolidating in the lower 1.33 range.
Overall, there is a lack of direction, and selling pressure is expected as prices test higher.
Expected range
Around 1.3260 to 1.3410
On the downside, 1.3260 is seen as support, with resistance around 1.34.
Moderate volatility, prone to both ups and downs
tactics
While focusing on selling on rebounds, we would like to see a reaction in the upper 1.33 range.
Avoid deep buying during short-term buying periods and consider selling again when prices rebound.
Keep the position light until you get a sense of direction, and use range rotation in combination.
trigger
A break above 1.3420 will likely lead to short-term investors buying back
A break below 1.3260 could trigger stop selling, increasing downward pressure
Focus on London time flows and price movements after US index releases
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price clearly breaks above 1.3450, the pullback selling scenario will be put on hold for the time being.
If there is a drop below 1.3200, avoid following it as it will be overheated.
If the price movement is stagnant in the 1.33 range, a temporary no-position option is also an option.
Risk Event
UK CPI and employment updates
US retail sales and comments from Fed officials
Geopolitical factors and sudden fluctuations in government bond yields
Position Management
The size of each position is limited to half of the usual size.
Take profits at 20 to 30 pips, and set stop losses at the most recent high and low prices.
Gradually close positions to avoid short-term fluctuations
Checklist
Check UK economic data and pound interest rates
Understand the direction of US long-term interest rates and the dollar index
Beware of temporary fluctuations due to actual demand flow during London time
Market Summary
On the previous day, selling of the Australian dollar was dominant during European trading hours, and at one point it attempted to break below 0.65.
During New York time, the dollar's strength eased and buying began, narrowing the decline.
Although the market has yet to solidify its bottom, the mid-week market is seeing the weight of the bottom in the short term.
Expected range
Around 0.6480 to 0.6620
The 0.65 range is seen as a support zone, with the lower 0.66 range as resistance.
Overall, it is likely that the price will remain within a range.
tactics
The basic stance is to combine buying on dips and selling on rallies, focusing on range rotation.
For short-term upside, prioritize finding a selling point just before 0.66
Keep your position light until you get a sense of direction, and focus on short-term rotation
trigger
Breaking above 0.6620 will likely lead to short-term investors buying back
If the price breaks below 0.6480, stop selling is likely, so caution is needed against a downward slide.
Wait-and-see mood during Tokyo time, focus on US economic indicators during New York time
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price clearly breaks above 0.6640, temporarily suspend the pullback selling strategy.
If the price breaks below 0.6460, reconsider your short-term buying strategy.
If the price movement remains in a narrow range between 0.65 and 0.66, refrain from new entries.
Risk Event
US retail sales and comments from Fed officials
Australian employment statistics and RBA comments
Selling of commodity currencies due to Chinese economic indicators and risk aversion
Position Management
Adjust the size per position to less than half of the normal size
Take profit is approximately 20 to 30 pips, and stop loss is set based on the most recent high and low prices.
Avoid bias in one direction and close positions gradually
Checklist
Australian data and RBA outlook changes confirmed
Understand US interest rate trends and the dollar index
Keep a close eye on risk sentiment in the Chinese market and trends in resource prices
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Although it was sold in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, selling became dominant again in New York. The firmness of the lower limit was not confirmed, and the reaction to 151.00 became the focus of attention.
summary
The environment in which government restraint and fluctuations in US interest rates simultaneously suppress both upside and downside
Although intervention caution and actual demand flow have limited the surge, there is still little sense of direction.
In the short term, the price will continue to trade in the 151 yen range, with a strong tendency to wait for new information.
Today's price movements
Early in Tokyo, selling on the rebound led to an attempt to break below 151.20
In Europe, buying has picked up and the price has recovered to around 151.60
In New York, selling prevailed again and the price was pushed back to around 151.00.
Background/materials
The dollar fluctuates due to sluggish US interest rates and speculation over key figures' comments
Continued vigilance against headlines about Japanese authorities' statements
Flows linked to stock market strength also have an impact
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The upper limit is resistance at 151.90 to 152.00
The lower limit is 151.00 and 150.50
Short-term indicators are in the neutral zone with little momentum bias
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
Maintaining a range of 150.00-152.70
A breakout requires a consolidation accompanied by volume
On the downside, the psychological milestone of 150.00 is a concern
Impressions
The market is likely to see an increase in participants who hold off on trading, limiting the price range.
Waiting for a reaction is more advantageous than expecting a breakout
Trading Impressions
Based on a range rotation, aiming for a rebound around 151.00 and a slowdown in the return to 151.90-152.00
Breaks are small and follow up gradually, but reverses quickly.
Checklist
151.00 and 151.90-152.00 board and reaction
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Whether or not there are statements from the authorities or hints at intervention, and how much this has been factored into the market
Looking back
The ECB's wait-and-see attitude and the sluggish growth of US interest rates were in focus, and after a period of initial buying in Tokyo and Europe, the market briefly fell, but in the latter half of the New York period buying back led to a closing high.
summary
While the dollar's strength is easing and supporting the euro, there is no confirmation that it will remain at an upper limit.
In the short term, we expect the price to continue trading between 1.1580 and 1.1660, and will monitor the reaction at the upper resistance level.
Market conditions are such that the market is waiting for an event, and developments are likely to be influenced by time-specific flows
Today's price movements
Asian trading hours remained firm due to the lingering effects of the previous day's buying.
After entering Europe, the market is struggling to move higher due to the wait for indicators, and there are signs of a downward trend.
In New York, a buying spree took place against the backdrop of a lull in interest rates, and prices remained high in the final stages of the day.
Background/materials
ECB remains data-dependent, pricing in limited further measures
US interest rates and dollar index fluctuations define euro's upper and lower bounds
Changes in stock and credit sentiment affect short-term flows
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 1.1630-1.1660 range is a resistance zone for the rebound, and if it breaks above it and settles, we will check for room for further rebound.
1.1580-1.1600 is the target range for support, and if it breaks, beware of accelerating downward pressure.
Short-term momentum is leaning towards neutral, so be wary of fluctuations around the index
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The search for direction continues within the range of 1.1550-1.1700
The moving average is flat, limiting the trend advantage
In the higher time frame, selling pressure on rebounds and demand for buying on dips were in balance.
Impressions
As investors wait for new information, the flow of trade is primarily driven by technical factors.
Aiming for a break requires a supporting pattern, and it is safe to follow up in stages.
In the short term, focus on time period and liquidity rather than level
Trading Impressions
The basic strategy is to use range rotation as the axis, buying on dips at the bottom and selling on rallies at the top.
For an upward breakout, wait for a settlement above 1.1660 and follow suit slightly. For a downward breakout, wait for a recovery after breaking below 1.1580.
Keep the size down just before the event to prepare for the initial fake
Checklist
Plate thickness and reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1630-1.1660
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Tone of ECB officials' statements and headlines of major indicators
Looking back
While the slowdown in UK wage growth and the Bank of England's cautious stance were in focus, the dollar's strength took a breather due to sluggish US interest rates, with buying leading the way from Tokyo to Europe, and a pullback in New York, leading to a closing high.
summary
Fundamentals are mixed with positive and negative factors, and direction remains limited
In the short term, the quality of the recovery and the point at which it stalls will need to be examined, as the upper limit has yet to be confirmed.
Time-specific flows and fluctuations before and after the indicators affect the price range
Today's price movements
Asia starts off firm, but tests upside as Europe enters
Although it was pushed down in the early New York session, it was bought back after US interest rates eased
The closing price remained in the high range, and the battle for the upper limit of the range continued.
Background/materials
Slowing wage growth in the UK has fuelled speculation that interest rates will be cut, but expectations remain that rates will remain unchanged for a long period of time
Fluctuations in US interest rates and stock market risk tolerance will determine the rise and fall of the pound
Market sentiment continues to be overly sensitive to statements by key figures and high-frequency data
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The resistance zone on the upside is 1.3400-1.3450
The downside is likely to be between 1.3330 and 1.3350
Momentum is neutral, and a breakout requires back-to-back confirmation
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
Searching for direction within the range of 1.3300-1.3480
The moving average is flat, limiting the trend advantage
In the higher time frame, selling pressure on rebounds and demand for buying on dips were in balance.
Impressions
As investors wait for new information, the flow of trade is primarily driven by technical factors.
Focus on time periods and changes in liquidity rather than levels
Be aware that sudden changes tend to lead to a news-driven trend
Trading Impressions
The basic strategy is to rotate between the ranges, buy on dips at the bottom, and sell on rallies at the top.
Follow-up will be gradual, with initial movement size kept low
If you make a fake break, retreat quickly and try again.
Checklist
Reactions to the order book at 1.3330 and 1.3400-1.3450
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
BOE key figures' comments and potential surprises in UK indexes
Looking back
The dollar's strength eased due to sluggish US interest rates, supporting the Australian dollar. After leading the buying in Tokyo and Europe, the market closed with a narrowing of its declines in New York.
summary
Fundamentals are showing limited direction as weak Australian news and a pause in US interest rates compete.
In the short term, the price will fluctuate between 0.6480 and 0.6520, and the quality of the recovery and the depth of the pullback will be examined.
Market conditions are easily affected by time-of-day factors as events await
Today's price movements
Asia remains firm on the back of the previous day's buying
In Europe, the market tried to rise but failed to grow, and then fell back in the early New York session.
At the end of the day, there was a buying spree and the price returned to around 0.65.
Background/materials
Weak Australian employment and the RBA's cautious stance will limit upside
Sluggish US interest rates have led to a pause in the dollar's strength, supporting the Australian dollar
Fluctuations in Chinese indicators and resource prices influence sentiment
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the upside, 0.6520 is resistance, and if it is surpassed, there will be room for a retracement to 0.6550.
The downside potential is 0.6500 and 0.6480
Oscillators are in the neutral zone and momentum is counterbalanced
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
Searching for direction within the wide range of 0.6400-0.6700
The moving average is flat and the trend advantage is limited
In the higher time frame, selling pressure on rebounds and demand for buying on dips were in balance.
Impressions
Rather than hoping for a break, I want to focus on rotation while checking the reaction.
Effective size management that is not affected by news-driven initial movements
In the short term, focus on time period and liquidity rather than level
Trading Impressions
The basic strategy is to rotate between different ranges, buying on dips below and selling on rallies above.
Divide the following into smaller groups and quickly withdraw the initial counterattack.
Before and after the event, refrain from new trades and wait for highly likely patterns.
Checklist
Plate thickness and reaction at 0.6480 and 0.6520
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
RBA headlines and China data tone
FX Journal