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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) releases minutes of monetary policy meeting |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | September Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [MoM] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | September Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised value) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¬π§ England | β | September unemployment claims |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¬π§ England | β | September unemployment rate |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π¬π§ England | β | August unemployment rate (ILO method) |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | October ZEW Business Sentiment Survey (Expectations Index) |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | October ZEW Business Sentiment Survey |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statements by VIPs | πΊπΈ America | Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remarks | |
| Statements by VIPs | π¬π§ England | Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks |
Today's Outlook
The previous day was a day of strong corrections due to the combined holidays in Japan and the US. Technically, it cannot be said that the lower limit has been solidified, so we will need to see whether liquidity recovers and the price will test either the upper or lower limits of the range.
The previous day, with limited participants, euro selling took the lead, but follow-up was weak and the momentum stalled. From a technical standpoint, it is difficult to say that the lower end has been solidified, and even in the recovery phase, the upper end will be heavy. Today, liquidity has returned after the market holiday, and we will be looking to determine the continuity of price movements by time of day, whether the recent range will be tested above or below.
The previous day, the US Treasury holiday limited participation and there was little new news from the UK, so GBP/USD remained in a small range. From a technical perspective, it is difficult to say that the bottom has been solidified, and even in the recovery phase, the topside will be heavy. Today, liquidity will return after the holiday, and attention will be focused on which side will be tested.
The previous day, the US Treasury holiday limited the number of participants, and the AUD/USD pair remained in a narrow range. Technically, it cannot be said that the bottom has been consolidated, nor that the upside is heavy, so it will be interesting to see if liquidity returns and the pair will test the bottom again.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
The previous day saw a calming trend in US interest rates, and the market lacked direction and continued to move within a small range. The market as a whole was in a wait-and-see mood, and it was a day of waiting for the next clue.
Selling of the euro became dominant during European trading hours, but buying back began during New York trading hours as the rise in US interest rates eased, and the euro closed at a high level. The daily chart showed a bullish candle, confirming the strength of the euro in the high 1.15 range.
Following an indicator that the UK's wage growth rate had slowed, selling of the pound took the lead during European trading hours, but during New York trading hours, buying came in on the back of a pause in rising US interest rates, narrowing the decline. With the market also aware of the firmness of the downside, it was a day lacking in sense of direction.
The Australian dollar was sold during the Tokyo and European trading hours, but the rise in US interest rates subsided during New York trading hours, and although there was some buying, the recovery was limited. By the end of the day, it was slightly lower in the low 0.65 range, and the overall trend throughout the day was to continue searching for lower levels.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| Price Fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
β Range lower limit
There is no upper limit that people are likely to be conscious of, so round numbers and other factors are likely to be taken into consideration.
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
Liquidity has recovered after the market holiday, and the market is more likely to reflect the impact of US interest rates and headlines in prices.
News related to trade with China and US interest rate forecasts will influence the direction of the dollar, so be careful of tests of the recent range.
A wait-and-see mood is likely to remain in Tokyo, with attention focused on the flow after entering Europe and the reaction in the morning in New York
Expected range
Around 151.50β152.50
On the downside, 151.70 to 151.50 is a potential pullback point, while on the upside, 152.40-152.50 is the initial barrier for selling on a rebound.
The price range may widen depending on the event, but the center of the range is expected to be around 151.90β152.20.
tactics
The basics are range rotation
Selling on rebounds near the upper limit and buying on dips near the lower limit in the short term
Only when a break occurs, follow lightly, and if it does not extend, withdraw quickly.
trigger
Breakout: Stuck above 152.50 β Pullback holds, room for test around 152.80
Downward break: Breaking below 151.70 β Confirming the quality of the run and rebound up to 151.50
The time period was early in Europe and in the morning in New York, when a unidirectional change in US interest rates occurred at the same time.
Nullification Conditions
The upper limit failed to settle above 152.50, but fell below 152.20 again, returning to dominance.
If the downside does not continue to fall below 151.50 and recovers to 151.90 in a V-shape, the downward pressure will be denied.
In both cases, the breakouts are not accompanied by any trading patterns and have little volume, so they tend to be invalid.
Risk Event
China-related trade headlines
US interest rate-related statements by key figures and headlines
Flow fluctuations before and after option cuts
Position Management
Size is 0.5β0.7 times the normal size, split execution to avoid slippage
Profit taking is within the range of 15-25p Asari, and when following the break, extend it by half
Loss cut is mechanically cut at 2-3 points or more on the most recent pullback.
Checklist
Are US interest rates and DXY direction aligned with price movements?
Difficulty in executing orders and order depth between 152.40β152.50 and 151.70β151.50
Whether volatility increased during the European market and the morning in New York, and whether news occurred at the same time
Market Summary
Liquidity is likely to recover after the market holiday, and the euro's selling the previous day was slowed down with little follow-up, so the trend is toward a return to a range.
Expected range
Around 1.1550β1.1700
The center is expected to be around 1.1600β1.1660
During expansion, watch out for the downside near 1.1520 and the upside near 1.1720
tactics
The basics are range rotation
When the price approaches the upper limit, sell on the rebound, and when the price approaches the lower limit, buy on the dip by dividing it into small lots.
Follow the break lightly and withdraw quickly if it does not extend
trigger
Breakout is staying above 1.1670 and pullback is maintained
The downside is 1.1550. The break and recovery are weak.
The time period was the early European trading session and the morning volatility expansion in New York.
Nullification Conditions
The upside failed to exceed 1.1670, but fell back to 1.1620 and returned to dominance.
The downside is that the break below 1.1550 will not continue and the price will recover to the 1.1600 level, negating the downward pressure.
Breaks without a finished product tend to be invalid
Risk Event
European economic outlook and headlines of key figures
US interest rate-related indicators and statements
Sudden changes in trade-related news
Position Management
Size is 0.5-0.7 times the normal size to prevent slippage
Take profit within the range of 15-25p, follow the break and extend by half
Stop loss is executed mechanically 2-3 points outside the most recent pullback
Checklist
Are US interest rates and DXY direction aligned with price movements?
Is it becoming more difficult to execute orders and trades around 1.1670 and 1.1550?
Did news and volatility increase occur simultaneously in early Europe and in the morning in New York?
Market Summary
Liquidity is likely to recover after the market holiday, but the previous day was in a small range and lacked direction.
The impact of US interest rates and trade headlines with China is relatively strong, while UK news is limited
Expected range
Around 1.3320β1.3365
The center is expected to be around 1.3335β1.3355
tactics
The basics are range rotation
Sell on rebounds near the upper limit, and buy on dips near the lower limit in small increments
trigger
Breakout is staying above 1.3365 and pullback is maintained
The breakout was at 1.3320, and the weak recovery was confirmed.
The time period was the early European trading session and the morning volatility expansion in New York.
Nullification Conditions
The upside failed to exceed 1.3365, but fell back to 1.3340 and returned to dominance.
The downside is 1.3320, but the break does not continue and the price recovers to 1.3350, negating the downward pressure.
Risk Event
US interest rate-related headlines and statements by key figures
European data surprises
Sudden changes in trade-related news
Position Management
Size is 0.5-0.7 times the normal size to prevent slippage
Take profit within the range of 15-25p, follow the break and extend by half
Stop loss is executed mechanically 2-3 points outside the most recent pullback
Checklist
Are US interest rates and DXY direction aligned with price movements?
Are there any signs of increased order volume or transaction delays around 1.3365 and 1.3320?
Did news and volatility increase occur simultaneously in early Europe and in the morning in New York?
Market Summary
Liquidity is likely to recover after the market holiday, and there is room for expansion from the previous day's narrow price movements.
The bottom end is not solidified enough, but the top end is heavy and lacks a decisive blow, so the price is likely to return to the range.
Note the synchronicity of RBA minutes, China-related headlines and US interest rates
Expected range
Around 0.6465β0.6530
Broadly speaking, around 0.6450β0.6560
Center assumed to be 0.6485β0.6515
tactics
The basics are range rotation
When the price approaches the lower limit, try buying on dips in small lots
When approaching the upper limit, prioritize selling on the rebound and take profits shallowly
trigger
Breakout is staying above 0.6530 and pullback is maintained
If the price continues to rise, it will be considered to follow the trend above 0.6560.
The breakout was at 0.6465, and the weak recovery was confirmed.
Nullification Conditions
The upward trend failed to reach 0.6530 and broke below 0.6510, leading to a return to a rebound advantage.
If the downside breaks below 0.6465 and fails to materialize, but recovers to the 0.6500 level, the downside will be denied.
Breaks that are not supported by the market conditions or time period tend to be invalid.
Risk Event
RBA minutes and dignitaries' remarks
China's economy and resource market headlines
US interest rate-related indicators and statements
Position Management
Size is 0.5-0.7 times the normal size to prevent slippage
Take profits in stages within the range of 15-25p
Stop loss is mechanically executed at 2-3 points or more on the most recent pullback.
Checklist
Are the DXY and US interest rate directions aligned with prices?
Is it becoming more difficult to get orders in order or execute orders around 0.6530 and 0.6465?
Did news and volatility increase occur simultaneously in early Europe and in the morning in New York?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
As US interest rates showed signs of settling down, the yen lacked direction and continued to trade in a narrow range in the low 152 yen range.
summary
The previous day, the market continued to lack decisive momentum in either the up or down direction due to a lack of material.
Trading remained within a limited range as expectations of a US interest rate cut and the Bank of Japan's cautious stance were at odds.
Overall, there was a strong mood of waiting for clues, and participants maintained a wait-and-see attitude.
Today's price movements
The price was quietly trading at around 152 yen during Tokyo time.
There was little movement during European hours, and no significant reaction was seen during New York hours.
Trading remained directionless throughout the day, with short-term investors dominating the buying and selling.
Background/materials
Expectations of a US interest rate cut and slowing inflation are limiting the dollar's upside
On the other hand, expectations of a revision in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy have receded, limiting the momentum for a stronger yen.
There were limited factors that affected the exchange rate, such as geopolitical factors and news about US-China relations.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 152.70 level was perceived as resistance, and the price stalled without being able to break through.
The 151.80 to 152.00 range will act as support, limiting downward pressure.
The short-term moving average is flat, lacking a clear direction.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, there is a sense of a pause in the upward trend, and the market is in a correction phase due to overheating.
The price has bounced back above 153.00 multiple times, and is seen as a strong resistance level.
Mid-term support is around 151.00, and the trend is likely to be maintained until it breaks below this level.
Impressions
A day when the market as a whole lacked momentum and a decline in liquidity was clearly evident
There was no active trading, mainly due to position adjustments ahead of the event.
Market sentiment remains somewhat cautious, with many waiting for the next US economic indicators.
Trading Impressions
The market is dominated by short-term trading in a narrow price range, making it difficult to aim for a breakout.
Many participants, other than those focused on scalping, refrained from entering the market.
An environment where it is effective to avoid taking unreasonable positions and deal with the upper and lower limits of the range.
Checklist
Check the trends of US long-term interest rates and the dollar index
Check for Bank of Japan-related news and comments on currency intervention
A review of this week's US economic indicators schedule
Looking back
Selling of the euro was dominant during European trading hours, but buying back began during New York trading hours as rising US interest rates eased, resulting in a positive closing.
summary
The dollar strengthened in the early stages of the previous day, but adjustments were made in the latter half of the day, and the euro cut its lower limit.
With little material, the day will be influenced by the trend of US interest rates and position adjustments.
Although the direction was limited, the firmness of the upper 1.15 range was noticed.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the exchange rate fluctuated around 1.1570, with little movement.
After falling to around 1.1550 during European hours, buying intensified during New York hours, closing at the 1.1590 level.
Although selling temporarily took the lead, the stabilization of US interest rates supported the euro.
Background/materials
A pause in rising US interest rates and a correction in the dollar index contributed to dollar selling.
Concerns about a slowdown in the European economy and the ECB's cautious monetary stance continue to restrain the market from rising.
Geopolitical risks are limited, and the overall trend is technically driven.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.1550 will act as short-term support, with resistance around 1.1600
The short-term moving average is flat and volatility is declining
The RSI is moving near the neutral zone and showing no clear direction.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The pair continues to trade within a range of 1.1500-1.1700, showing a lack of direction.
The medium-term trend is slightly downward, but the momentum of new lows is slowing
On the weekly chart, the support zone is being maintained and a cross-holding stage is underway.
Impressions
Amid a lack of material, short-term trading is the dominant trend
The interest rate differential between Europe and the US is narrowing, and the momentum for dollar buying is fading.
The next US economic indicators and comments from ECB officials may provide direction.
Trading Impressions
A market where buying on dips and selling on rallies within a narrow range are effective
The reaction was slow during the day, and liquidity during European and US time zones was key
A day when short-term rotation is more suitable than trend following
Checklist
Check the trends of US long-term interest rates and the dollar index
Check out European economic indicators and ECB speech schedule
Keep an eye on trading volume and reaction to the price movement between 1.1550 and 1.1600
Looking back
The pound was sold during European trading hours following an indicator that the rate of wage growth in the UK had slowed, but buying back occurred during New York trading hours, reducing the extent of the decline.
summary
With limited information available the previous day, short-term price movements were mainly driven by index results.
Concerns about a slowdown in the UK economy continued to hold down the upside, but dollar buying also slowed as the rise in US interest rates eased
Overall, the market continued to move within a range, and it was a day lacking direction.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: little movement around 1.3330
During European trading hours, the price fell to around 1.3300, testing the lower end in the short term.
As New York time approached, there was a buying back and the price movement was somewhat calm at the end of the day, closing at the 1.3340 range.
Background/materials
Slowing UK wage data was the main driver of the pound sell-off
While US interest rates support the dollar, risk-averse dollar buying is limited
Speculation about when the BOE will cut interest rates and concerns about an economic slowdown continued to be a concern.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.3300 is seen as support on the downside, with 1.3380-1.3400 as the target for a rebound.
The short-term moving average is flat, and momentum is in the neutral zone.
Volatility is declining, and range-bound adjustments continue
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The range of 1.3200 to 1.3450 has been maintained, and the trend is one of range-bound fluctuation in the medium term.
The medium-term trend is downward, but the momentum for new lows is weakening.
On the daily chart, a candlestick with a long lower shadow appears, suggesting a firm short-term downside.
Impressions
Even after the pound selling was over, there was no active buying back, and it seemed like there was a lack of direction.
Trading volume is limited as markets await the next US economic indicators and comments from BOE officials
While assessing risk factors, range trading is likely to continue for the time being.
Trading Impressions
A market where short-term rotation is effective, with buying on dips at the bottom and selling on rallies at the top.
It was a day of lack of activity, requiring a more conservative approach rather than aiming for a breakthrough.
For short-term positions, it is safe to set a shallow stop position and prepare for adjustments within the range.
Checklist
Check the results of UK economic indicators (employment and prices) and market reaction
Tracking US long-term interest rates and the dollar index
Keep an eye on reports about BOE officials' comments and outlook for the next meeting
Looking back
The Australian dollar was sold during Tokyo and European trading hours, but was bought back during New York trading hours as rising US interest rates eased, ultimately trading slightly lower in the low 0.65 range.
summary
Uncertainty over US-China relations and risk aversion have limited the Australian dollar's upside
Australian dollar weakens against US dollar as RBA maintains cautious stance
The market regained some composure during New York hours, but overall the market continued to seek lower prices.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the index fluctuated around 0.6550, with downward pressure due to weak Asian stocks.
During European trading hours, the price attempted to break below 0.6500, but there was some buying support at the lower end.
During New York trading hours, the dollar rebounded slightly after a pause in its strength, but the recovery was limited and the price closed around 0.6520 in the final stages.
Background/materials
Concerns over renewed US-China trade frictions fuel risk aversion, triggering selling of the Australian dollar
The RBA minutes indicated that they were in no rush to cut interest rates further, but concerns about an economic slowdown were taken into account.
The pause in the rise in US interest rates and the sluggish growth of the dollar were the reasons for the reluctance to fall.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 0.6480-0.6500 level is seen as short-term support
The upper resistance zone for the rebound is around 0.6550, and there is a lack of momentum to break out.
The short-term moving average is flat, and the price continues to test the lower limit of the range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The market continues to be in a range between 0.6400 and 0.6650, and there is a lack of direction in the medium term.
The medium-term moving average is pointing downwards slowly, and no signs of an upward trend have been confirmed.
The weekly chart shows a bearish candle with a lower shadow, and there is still some buying demand at the lower end.
Impressions
The Australian dollar was unpredictable as risk aversion and interest rate factors intersected.
The market is waiting to see how US interest rates will develop, and Australian dollar-led movements are limited
Technically, there are signs of a consolidation at the bottom, but the upper limit remains heavy.
Trading Impressions
In the short term, it will be effective to rotate with an eye on the pullback below 0.65 and the rebound around 0.6550.
A market suitable for day trading with a limited price range rather than aiming for a breakout
It is safe to keep positions light and prepare for the risk of news-driven fluctuations.
Checklist
Confirming comments from RBA officials and outlook for the next meeting
Tracking US interest rates and the dollar index
Keep an eye on the impact of Chinese economic indicators and stock price movements on the Australian dollar
FX Journal