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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ America | β | October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
news
[Japan] Komeito withdraws from coalition government
Today's Outlook
Although the previous day saw multiple pushbacks at the 153 yen high, buying momentum had not clearly weakened. With the price remaining firm, it is likely that the market will attempt to move upward again. However, with the weekend coming as a factor, rebalancing flows are likely to be a concern, and caution is needed against sudden price movements.
The previous day, selling of the euro was dominant due to political uncertainty in France and the trend in US interest rates, and it fell slightly below the line that had been set as the selling target. There was a temporary buying back afterwards, but the recovery was limited and it continued to trade in the lower range. Today, it is likely that a downward movement will continue to be observed, but there is also concern about flows due to rebalancing as a weekend factor.
The previous day saw pound selling take hold from European trading hours, and as dollar buying also took place during New York trading hours, the market continued to test the lower end. As a result, the selling target line was slightly updated, and the market remained in a low range. Today, it is likely that the market will continue to test the lower end, but with the possibility of rebalancing flows being added as a weekend factor, caution is needed regarding erratic price movements.
It was an unstable day with both buying and selling from the previous day, but the price fell after confirming the weight of the upper limit. We need to be cautious of any moves that test the lower limit today, and we also need to be careful of the impact of weekend rebalancing.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
During European trading hours, there was a temporary surge in yen buying following news of the Komeito Party's withdrawal from the coalition, but the market continued to trade in a range-bound manner, lacking any clear direction. During New York trading hours, President Trump's comments sparked speculation of additional tariffs on Chinese products, accelerating dollar selling and resulting in a significant drop in the dollar's value. Overall, it was a day marked by a sense of uncertainty on both the political and trade fronts.
Due to the impact of weekend rebalancing, the market showed a lack of direction and strong correction during European trading hours and early New York trading. In the latter half of New York trading, President Trump's comments raised speculation that tariffs would be strengthened on Chinese products, leading to dollar selling. In response, the euro temporarily rebounded, recovering to the 1.16 range and closing in a range above the highs.
As European trading began, the market continued to test the lower end of the previous day. After a sell-off, the market attempted to recover, but it was pushed down again and slightly surpassed the previous day's low. As New York trading began, dollar selling intensified following President Trump's comments on tariffs on China, leading to a significant recovery and the market closing.
During Tokyo and European trading hours, the market lacked direction due to weekend rebalancing flows. As New York trading began, risk aversion intensified after President Trump hinted at significant tariffs on Chinese products, accelerating selling of the Australian dollar. The pair fell below 0.6500 and closed significantly lower.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| Price Fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
β Range lower limit
There is no upper limit that people are likely to be conscious of, so round numbers and other factors are likely to be taken into consideration.
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
While USD/JPY continues to be capped at the 153 yen level, buying momentum remains strong and the market is focused on stability.
The stock has attempted to hit a new high but has been pushed back, with upward momentum and pullback selling pressure balanced.
Expected range
Around 152.20β153.50
While we expect the price to remain in a range around the high end, there is a possibility that the range of fluctuations will widen due to weekend rebalancing factors.
tactics
Basically, keep in mind buying on dips, but also consider range rotation in the short term.
It is advisable to take profits flexibly in small increments, anticipating sudden fluctuations due to the flow.
trigger
A break above 153.30 is likely to strengthen short-term buying momentum
If it breaks below 152.20, the correction will intensify and temporary selling pressure may accelerate.
Focus on European time flows due to weekend factors
Nullification Conditions
If the price falls firmly to the 151 yen range, the dip buying scenario will be invalidated.
If selling pressure in the high range intensifies during New York trading hours, a review of the direction is necessary.
Risk Event
US economic indicators (employment-related, inflation-related)
Changes in monetary policy stance due to statements by key figures
Weekend position adjustment flow
Position Management
Enter with a smaller lot size than usual to prepare for the risk of fluctuations typical of weekends.
Take profits in small increments of around 20 to 30 pips
Stop losses are managed based on milestones such as breaking below 152.00
Checklist
Check whether the yen will break through the 153 yen mark
Assuming weekend rebalancing flows
Always be aware of US interest rate trends during New York time
Market Summary
On the previous day, the euro was sold due to political uncertainty in France and US interest rate movements, and the euro fell slightly below the target line.
After that, there was a temporary buying back, but the recovery was limited and the price continued to move in the lower range.
A downward trend is expected again today, but caution is needed regarding the flow due to the weekend rebalancing.
Expected range
The price movement is expected to be centered around 1.1520 as the lower limit and around 1.1620 as the upper limit.
1.1600 is likely to be perceived as a psychological turning point and is likely to become the focus of attacks and defenses.
On the downside, whether or not the 1.1550 level is tested will be an important turning point.
tactics
The basic strategy is to focus on selling on rebounds.
When short-term buying occurs, respond carefully by assessing the reaction at the resistance zone.
It is necessary not to follow a sudden rebound, but to check whether the rebound is weak.
trigger
A break of 1.1550 is likely to be a trigger for a downward move.
If the price continues to move above 1.1620, it will be seen as a signal for a rebound.
Fluctuations tend to be concentrated at the start of European time and early New York time, so close attention is needed.
Nullification Conditions
If there is a clear break above 1.1650, the sell-on-return strategy may become less effective.
A stable closing price above 1.1620 suggests that the test scenario is invalid.
When sudden news flow causes a sudden rise, the assumption of short-term selling dominance is denied.
Risk Event
In addition to the release of US economic indicators, comments from Federal Reserve officials will be closely watched.
European political news continues to be perceived as a factor in selling the euro
Weekend rebalancing flows may cause sudden fluctuations
Position Management
Keep position sizes conservative and consider weekend uncertainty
Set small downside targets for profit taking and avoid excessive pullbacks
It is advisable to take stop losses early when the price clearly breaks above 1.1650.
Checklist
Check for break of 1.1550
Observe the strength of the battle over 1.1600
Be wary of sudden flows due to weekend rebalancing
Market Summary
Selling of the pound has become dominant, and with dollar buying also taking place, the market is continuing to search for lower prices.
The previous day's sell target line was slightly updated, and the stock closed at a low level.
Expected range
Expected to move around the 1.2550β1.2700 range
On the downside, a break of 1.2550 is a concern, while on the upside, a recovery is likely to be suppressed just before 1.2700.
tactics
Assuming a sell-dominant trend, a strategy based on selling on rallies is effective.
However, buying back is likely to occur at the lower end of the price range, so caution is required when chasing lower prices.
trigger
A clear break below 1.2550 increases the likelihood of selling accelerating
On the other hand, if the price exceeds 1.2700, it will be easier to think of a recovery phase.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 1.2700 and the trend in the low range is denied, the scenario of searching for a lower price will be invalidated.
If dollar selling pressure suddenly increases, adjustments to assumptions will be necessary.
Risk Event
Irregular price movements due to weekend position adjustments and rebalancing flows
Acceleration of dollar buying and selling due to US interest rate-related comments and index releases
UK economic indicators and political news may have a sudden impact
Position Management
New entries are sized more modestly than usual
Profit taking will be carried out gradually with a target of around 1.2550 as the lower limit
Place stop loss above 1.2700 to clearly control risk
Checklist
Check whether the price will break below 1.2550
Check whether there is any sudden flow due to rebalancing
Monitor the impact of US interest rate trends and UK index results
Market Summary
The previous day saw unstable price movements with buying and selling intersecting, and ultimately the market turned downwards after confirming the weight of the upper limit.
The Australian dollar showed price movements that indicated a weak recovery against the US dollar, and continued to trade in the low range.
Expected range
Expected to trade in a range centered around 0.6460β0.6540
While there is a tendency for the market to test the lower end, a rebound to the mid-0.6500 range is likely to be the upper limit.
tactics
The basic policy is that a sell-off based on rebounds is likely to be prioritized.
While taking into consideration buying back at lower levels, tactics that assume dollar-buying pressure are effective overall.
trigger
If the price clearly breaks below 0.6460, the downward trend may accelerate.
If it breaks above 0.6540, buying will prevail in the short term, with a potential rise to around 0.6570.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6550 and a bullish candlestick is established on the daily chart, the downside scenario will be negated.
If there is a strong rebound after a new low, you will need to reconsider your selling tactics.
Risk Event
Fluctuations in the dollar due to the release of US economic indicators (CPI and employment-related data)
Chinese economic announcements and fluctuations in resource prices affect the Australian dollar
Sudden flows due to weekend rebalancing
Position Management
Keep the entry size to about 50-70% of the usual size to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations
It is reasonable to set the profit target at around 0.6470 and the stop loss at above 0.6550.
Limit position holding periods to short periods and liquidate promptly after the event has passed.
Checklist
Check the upper limit around 0.6500
Determine whether the decline will accelerate once the price breaks 0.6460
Beware of sudden flows due to weekend rebalancing
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Buying of the yen was dominant during European trading hours, while selling of the dollar accelerated during New York trading hours, causing a significant drop.
summary
The news of Komeito's withdrawal from the coalition and the US's hint of tariffs on China led to risk-averse buying of the yen.
The dollar/yen exchange rate temporarily fell below 153 yen, resulting in a weak trend.
The market reacted sensitively to political factors, with risk-driven movements prominent.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo market saw little movement and a lack of direction.
As European trading began, yen buying intensified following news of the country's withdrawal from the coalition, temporarily testing a downward trend.
During New York time, selling of the dollar accelerated following President Trump's remarks regarding China, widening the downside.
Background/materials
In addition to political uncertainty in Japan, comments about US trade policy dampened market sentiment.
Geopolitical and political risks will drive developments rather than US interest rate trends
Position adjustments ahead of the weekend also increased selling pressure on the dollar.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
A break below support near 153.00 triggered a stop sell.
During the recovery phase, the 152.80 to 153.00 area is likely to be seen as resistance.
In the short term, the lower end of the range will continue to be traded with increased volatility
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
A temporary correction during an uptrend on the daily chart
The focus is on whether the 20-day moving average (low 152 yen range) can be maintained.
With the price falling below 152.00, the possibility of a mid-term momentum reversal is being considered.
Impressions
Market sentiment remains sensitive to policy-related news
A situation where the market is more susceptible to short-term risk flows than fundamentals
We will be watching closely from next week onwards to see if the impact of the remarks and reports calms down somewhat.
Trading Impressions
There were many sudden fluctuations due to news headlines, so careful responses were required.
The trend of selling on rebounds was dominant rather than chasing higher prices.
A day where small settlements that emphasize risk-reward are effective
Checklist
Are you aware of the risk of temporary yen buying due to political news?
Have you checked the impact of US political factors such as comments on tariffs against China?
Do you manage risk by anticipating position adjustment flows over the weekend?
Looking back
After a rebalancing adjustment, the euro rebounded in response to US comments and closed at a high.
summary
With the weekend approaching, the market was dominated by flows and continued to lack direction.
In the latter half of New York time, selling of the dollar became dominant after President Trump suggested imposing tariffs on China.
The euro recovered to the 1.16 range, showing signs of a short-term pause in its decline.
Today's price movements
European trading hours saw a correction due to weekend rebalancing
Until the early New York session, the price remained in a narrow range of 1.1550 to 1.1580.
The comments sparked selling of the dollar in the latter half of the New York market, and the rate temporarily rose to around 1.1620.
Background/materials
President Trump's threat to tighten tariffs on China weighs on market sentiment
Risk-off trend temporarily shifts to dollar selling
New economic indicators are scarce in Europe, with US factors taking the lead
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.1550 is seen as support, limiting downside
The 1.1620-1.1650 range is an upper resistance band, and the price is unable to break through
The 5-day moving average (around 1.1590) is the immediate turning point
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price is recovering amid a downward trend
The focus is on whether the price can break above the 20-day moving average (around 1.1670)
If it falls below 1.1500, the risk of a mid-term downside retest will re-emerge.
Impressions
The market is driven by material trends, and fundamentals appear to lack consistency.
Political and trade comments are likely to increase short-term volatility
From next week onwards, indicators such as the US CPI will likely be the deciding factor in determining the direction.
Trading Impressions
Even with a lack of direction, there were many price movements in response to the news.
I get the impression that short-term buying on dips with the price at 1.1550 was effective.
In the thin trading caused by the weekend, it was reasonable to avoid any risky entries.
Checklist
Are you aware of dollar fluctuations due to US trade-related statements?
Did you anticipate temporary price movements due to weekend flows and rebalancing?
Are you aware of any position adjustments ahead of the US CPI announcement next week?
Looking back
After testing the lower end in Europe, the dollar turned to selling in New York and rebounded to close
summary
During European trading hours, selling continued as per the previous day's trend.
During New York time, dollar selling prevailed following President Trump's remarks, and the pound began to rebound.
The market also saw some adjustments ahead of the weekend, and ended the day recovering from the lows.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price moved slightly between 1.2520 and 1.2540.
Selling intensified in early European trading, briefly dropping below 1.2500
During New York time, the tariff comments triggered an acceleration in dollar selling, and the dollar rose to around 1.2570 and closed at 1.2570.
Background/materials
Concerns about a slowdown in the UK economy continued to weigh on the market during European trading hours, leading to selling of the pound.
The dollar weakens across the board after President Trump announced he would impose tariffs on Chinese products.
The weekend rebalancing flow also contributed to market instability.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.2500 acts as temporary support
The 1.2570-1.2580 level is the upper limit of the rebound, and in the short term it appears to be forming a range
Moving near the 5-day moving average (around 1.2560)
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, there are signs of a pause in the downward trend.
The medium-term focus is whether the price can break above the 20-day moving average (around 1.2650)
If the price breaks below 1.2450, the chances of the pair searching for lower prices again will increase.
Impressions
Overall, developments are driven more by external factors than by the pound alone
Position adjustments were noticeable due to US comments and weekend factors.
Although the price range was limited, volatility appeared to be maintained.
Trading Impressions
Short-term buying against the backdrop of 1.2500 worked, but the rebound was limited
A day with many news-driven movements, making technical judgments difficult
Considering the weekend factors, it was a situation where we should have avoided building unreasonable positions.
Checklist
Do you understand the impact of the US administration's statements and tariff policies on China?
Did you see 1.2500 as short-term support?
Are you anticipating any risk of price movements after the rebalancing toward the start of next week?
Looking back
Trump's remarks spark risk aversion, accelerating selling of Australian dollar
summary
During Tokyo and European trading hours, the market continued to show a lack of direction due to the impact of weekend rebalancing.
A risk-off mood spread during New York time following President Trump's suggestion of tariffs on China.
The Australian dollar fell due to dollar-buying pressure and remained at low levels in the final minutes of the day.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: small fluctuations around 0.6520-0.6540
During European trading hours, dollar buying prevailed slightly, dropping to around 0.6500.
During New York time, selling of the Australian dollar intensified following the tariff comments, and the dollar temporarily fell to around 0.6470.
The recovery was slow towards the end of trading, and the index finished trading in the 0.6480 range.
Background/materials
Markets dominated by rebalancing flows ahead of the weekend
Trump's threat of tariffs on Chinese goods fuels risk aversion
Combined with rising US interest rates, the dollar strengthened.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The break below 0.6500 has broken short-term support.
0.6530-0.6540 is seen as a benchmark for selling on rebounds
RSI is approaching short-term oversold levels, with room for correction
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The downtrend continues on the daily chart
Unless it clearly breaks above 0.6550, the recovery will be limited
On a weekly basis, the 0.6450 level is seen as the next downside target.
Impressions
Amid a decline in liquidity due to the weekend, it was a day marked by news-driven reactions.
The market reacted quickly to the remarks about tariffs on China, reflecting a market sentiment sensitive to risk aversion.
Markets are likely to react sensitively to political and trade-related comments from next week onwards.
Trading Impressions
Selling below 0.6500 worked, but caution was required when chasing the price lower.
For short-term traders, quick response to event headlines is key
Contrarian trading during rising volatility is risky and requires clear confirmation of a reversal
Checklist
Did you recognize the break of 0.6500 as a short-term support break?
Did you anticipate the risk of price fluctuations that are typical of weekends due to rebalancing?
Did you factor the risk of statements related to tariffs on China into your trading plans?
FX Journal