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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πͺπΊ Europe | β β | European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Minutes |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statements by VIPs | πΊπΈ America | Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remarks |
Today's Outlook
The yen continued to sell throughout Tokyo and European trading hours the previous day, briefly testing 153 yen, but by New York time, dollar selling had become dominant as expectations of a rate cut intensified following the Federal Reserve minutes, reducing the gains. However, the yen selling trend itself has not significantly collapsed, and the situation is one in which a battle for control at higher levels is likely to be noticed. Today will be a time to confirm the initial trend, as to whether there will be a move to test the 153 yen level again, or whether the price will move to consolidate around 152 yen.
The previous day, the instability of French politics led to euro selling from Tokyo to Europe, and the euro briefly fell below 1.1600 during New York time. The decline then narrowed as dollar selling in response to US interest rate movements, and the euro closed with a lower wick. Today, the battle for 1.1600 will once again be a focus, and attention will be focused on whether the euro will attempt to break below or bounce back. Overall, with selling pressure remaining, it looks like this will be a day to gauge the firmness of the lower end.
The previous day saw selling take the lead from Tokyo time, and the downward trend continued into European time, but the decline narrowed during New York time due to dollar selling following the Fed minutes. Today, the pound remains under selling pressure, but the market will be watching to see whether there will be any buying back at the lower end.
The previous day, selling was dominant during Tokyo hours, and Europe also showed signs of weakness, but by New York hours, a rebound at the lower end prevailed due to dollar selling following the Federal Reserve minutes. As a result, the daily chart formed a bullish candle with a long lower wick, indicating the presence of buying at low levels. Today, attention will be focused on whether the level around 0.6500 can be maintained, or whether there will be another test of the downward trend.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
During European trading hours, buying came in and the price reached a new high from the previous day, but the price was pushed back above 153 yen as it was perceived as being heavy on the upside. During New York trading hours, dollar-buying pressure intensified again against the backdrop of US interest rate movements, and there was a temporary attempt to move upward, but it did not clearly break through the milestone. Nevertheless, the price remained in the high range and remained firm towards the close.
As European trading began, selling of the euro intensified amid political uncertainty in France, accelerating the test of lower levels. As New York trading began, dollar buying became dominant in response to US interest rate movements, widening the decline and slightly exceeding the target level for selling, closing at a low level.
During Tokyo trading hours, the movement lacked direction, but as European trading hours began, selling of the pound became dominant and the market tested the lower end. During New York trading hours, dollar buying accelerated against the backdrop of US interest rate movements, causing a sudden drop. As a result, the market slightly surpassed the selling target line, and closed the day maintaining a low range.
Buying prevailed during Tokyo trading hours, and the pair temporarily tested the upper limit, but as European trading hours began, dollar buying pushed the pair down, increasing downward pressure. However, there was also some bargain hunting at the lower end, and by New York trading hours, the pair tested the upper limit again. However, dollar buying then prevailed, driven by US interest rate trends, and the pair hit a new low from the previous day. Towards the end of trading, the pair maintained a low range.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| Price Fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
β Range lower limit
There is no upper limit that people are likely to be conscious of, so round numbers and other factors are likely to be taken into consideration.
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
β Upper limit of range
β‘Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The yen continued to sell off on the previous day, briefly testing 153 yen, but in New York time, expectations of an interest rate cut this year following the Federal Reserve minutes increased, pushing the dollar down.
Although the increase narrowed in the end, the yen remained at a high level and the yen selling trend did not significantly change.
Expected range
Expected range: around 152.00 β 153.50
On the downside, support is expected to be in the 152 yen range, while on the upside, the focus will be on attempts to break through the 153 yen range.
tactics
As the battle for the high price continues, it is likely that people will be focusing on buying on dips.
A trend-following stance that confirms the underlying trend is more effective than a contrarian stance that takes advantage of short-term adjustment phases.
trigger
If the price clearly breaks above 153.00, it could be a sign that buying pressure is strengthening.
Conversely, if it falls below 152.00, it will be a sign of profit taking and adjustment movements spreading, so keep an eye on it.
Pay attention to times when US interest rate trends and US economic indicators are likely to give direction.
Nullification Conditions
If the price falls below 151.80 and the decline accelerates, the buying on dips scenario will likely be negated.
On the other hand, if the momentum does not continue even after exceeding 153.50, the upward trend may slow down.
Risk Event
US initial unemployment claims
Trends in U.S. Treasury yields
Risk of comments by Japanese authorities regarding currency intervention
Position Management
Position size will be smaller than usual and adjusted according to price movements between 152.00 and 153.00.
Take profits frequently, aiming for 20-30 pips
Stop loss will be set flexibly when the price falls below 152.00 or when volatility increases suddenly.
Checklist
Check if support near 152.00 works
Determine whether or not the price will break through 153.00 and whether it will be sustainable.
Check the strength of dollar buying and selling due to US economic indicators and interest rate fluctuations
Market Summary
Selling of the euro was dominant due to political uncertainty in France, and the euro briefly fell below 1.1600 during New York time.
After that, the decline narrowed due to dollar selling in response to the trend in US interest rates, and the market closed with a lower shadow.
Although selling pressure remains overall, a rebound in the low range was also confirmed.
Expected range
Expected to move around the 1.1570β1.1700 range
Downward focus will be on whether the break below 1.1600 will continue
On the upside, the strength of the rebound was confirmed around 1.1700.
tactics
In the short term, we will focus on selling on rebounds, but also be wary of buying back at low prices.
If you lack a sense of direction, be mindful of range rotation.
Flexibility is required to respond sensitively to initial price movements
trigger
If there is a clear break below 1.1600, selling pressure is likely to intensify.
A move above 1.1700 increases the likelihood of a short-term pullback test
Volatility may intensify with the start of European trading hours and the release of US economic indicators.
Nullification Conditions
A sustained rise above 1.1720 would negate the downside scenario.
If the daily close can hold at 1.1600, the selling-dominant scenario will weaken.
If there is no material and price movement is limited, switch to a range strategy.
Risk Event
Changes in monetary policy stance due to statements by Fed officials
Headlines related to European politics, with a focus on France
US unemployment insurance claims and other economic indicators released
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 1.1600 area is seen as short-term support.
The 1.1650 level is likely to be a benchmark for sell-offs.
The short-term chart shows a pattern with a lower shadow.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The downward trend continues on a daily basis.
The 1.1700 level is likely to be seen as an upper resistance zone for a rebound.
The focus is on whether the price will show signs of slowing down amid the downward trend
Impressions
It is noteworthy that despite the predominance of selling, the stock showed a rebound after breaking the milestone.
The market is likely to continue fluctuating up and down rather than moving in one direction.
The market is also waiting for new information, so taking excessive positions is risky.
Trading Impressions
In the short term, the basic pattern is to follow any attempts to break below 1.1600 with selling
On the other hand, if there are signs of a rebound in the low price range, it would be effective to aim for a small buyback.
Overall, it is advisable to keep positions light and limit risks.
Checklist
Keep a close eye on the battle at the 1.1600 mark
Checking news headlines related to European politics
Be prepared for dollar movements around U.S. economic data releases
Market Summary
On the previous day, selling of the pound was dominant from Tokyo to Europe, and the trend continued to test the lower end.
During New York time, the dollar fell sharply due to selling following the Federal Reserve minutes, and the dollar recovered at a low level.
Overall, the market was aware of the firmness of the lower end despite the remaining selling tone.
Expected range
Expected to move around 1.2170β1.2270
While support is seen around 1.2200, the 1.2250-1.2270 range is a target for recovery.
tactics
The basic strategy is to focus on selling on rebounds.
However, if the price fails to reach a new low, prepare for a short-term buyback.
trigger
If it breaks 1.2200, downward momentum is likely to strengthen.
A break above 1.2270 could make the recovery clearer
Price movements during European trading hours will be key to determining today's direction.
Nullification Conditions
If the price closes clearly above 1.2300, the sell-on-return strategy will be negated.
If the strong rebound continues, we will reconsider the scenario of a new low.
Risk Event
Pound fluctuations due to UK economic data releases
US interest rate trends and statements by important figures
Impact of geopolitical risks and political uncertainty in Europe
Position Management
Start new positions small and increase them after checking the direction.
Take profits at 20 to 30 pips
Place stop loss outside the most recent high or low to limit risk
Checklist
Keeping an eye on the battle for 1.2200
Check European market price movements and US interest rate trends
Know the indicators and scheduled speeches of important people in advance
Market Summary
Although selling was ahead on the previous day, dollar selling progressed in New York time following the Federal Reserve minutes, and there was concern about a rebound at the lower end.
On the daily chart, a bullish candle with a long lower shadow was formed, confirming the existence of buybacks at low prices.
Expected range
Price movement expected to be around 0.6470β0.6560
Buyback pressure is likely to be felt at the lower limit, while sell-offs are likely to be felt at the upper limit.
tactics
The basic stance is to keep range rotation in mind
In the short term, it is effective to be conscious of buying on dips at the lower end of the price range, while prioritizing profit taking on rebounds.
trigger
If it clearly breaks below 0.6500, the downward test may accelerate.
A break above 0.6560 could confirm a short-term recovery.
Focus on US index releases and resource price trends during Asian hours
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6600, the scenario of searching for lower prices will likely be negated.
Even if there is a downward test, unless it falls below 0.6450, the view that the downward trend will continue will be suppressed.
Risk Event
Statements by Federal Reserve officials and U.S. economic indicators
China's economic data and fluctuations in resource prices
Sudden market fluctuations due to geopolitical risks
Position Management
Set the entry size small to accommodate volatility
Set profit taking around 0.6530-0.6550 as a guideline
Stop loss: Risk management based on breaking below 0.6450
Checklist
Check for a reaction around 0.6500
Assessing the impact of resource prices and China-related indicators
Keep an eye on US interest rates and Fed news
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Although the price reached a new high from the previous day during European trading hours, it was pushed back by a heavy upward pressure above 153 yen, and although buying pressure increased again during New York trading hours, it was unable to break through and closed at a high level.
summary
While the upward trend continues, the 153 yen level was in focus, but the fact that it did not break through was a notable feature of today's price.
While the market remained in the high range overall, caution was seen in chasing higher prices.
While dollar-buying remains dominant, the yen has not been sold off entirely, and the movement has included some adjustments.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the yen continued to fluctuate in the upper 152 yen range, lacking direction.
During European trading hours, buying intensified and the price reached a new high from the previous day, but was pushed back at 153 yen.
Buying resumed during New York hours on the back of rising US interest rates, and the stock tried to move higher but failed to break through.
Background/materials
Rising US long-term interest rates supported dollar buying, leading to buybacks during New York trading hours.
On the other hand, expectations of a rate cut following the Fed minutes remain in focus, making it unlikely to lead to aggressive dollar buying.
Markets are torn between the direction of US monetary policy and concerns about the weak yen
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 152.80 level is seen as a short-term support level.
The focus will be on whether the resistance zone around 153.20 can be clearly broken through.
On the daily chart, the price remains in the high range while leaving an upper shadow.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The upward trend from the upper 150 yen range continues.
If it exceeds 153.50, there is a possibility that the upside will increase, but at present, the upper limit is conspicuous
On the other hand, if the yen falls below 152 yen, there is a possibility that the correction will intensify.
Impressions
Although the upward trend continues, there appears to be a lack of material to break through the milestone.
The market continues to react strongly to US interest rates and the Fed's policy stance, and remains vulnerable to external factors.
Although the overall trend is upward, attention must be paid to the risk of adjustment in the short term.
Trading Impressions
The strategy of picking up dips is effective, but profit-taking should also be considered near turning points.
Avoid large positions and enter and exit multiple times for safety
Contrarian trading at high prices requires careful consideration
Checklist
Check whether support around 152.80 will work
Keep an eye on whether the 153.20β153.50 resistance zone will be broken
Tracking the impact of US interest rate trends and Fed-related comments on the dollar/yen
Looking back
Selling of the euro intensified during European trading hours, while buying of the dollar accelerated during New York trading hours, slightly updating the selling target level.
summary
Political uncertainty in France weighed on the euro, leading to a decline after European trading hours.
During New York time, dollar buying intensified due to US interest rate trends, temporarily accelerating the decline.
Ultimately, after the selling had finished, the decline narrowed somewhat, and the stock price recovered and closed at a low level.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price lacked direction and fluctuated around 1.1600.
During European trading hours, selling of the euro was dominant, and the price fell below 1.1600.
During New York time, dollar buying intensified, and the dollar fell to a new level that was set as a selling target.
Background/materials
Continuing political uncertainty in France weighed on the euro
US interest rate trends supported dollar buying, causing a decline during New York time
The Fed minutes strengthened expectations of a rate cut, leading to dollar selling in the final stages and reducing the decline.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Although it tried to break below 1.1600, the decline was limited
Towards the end of the day, a lower shadow formed, leaving room for a short-term rebound.
The situation is such that cross-holdings at recent lows are likely to be taken into consideration.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
Although the selling trend continues in the medium term, the bottom is also firming around 1.1600.
The daily chart showed a pattern with lower shadows, indicating a certain degree of downward resilience.
Trends in European political risks will be important in determining the medium-term direction
Impressions
Although the selling momentum continues, the price has not fallen significantly below the milestone.
Political risks and speculation about US monetary policy make it difficult to predict the direction of price movements
Overall, the market is weak, but it is a balanced development that leaves room for a short-term rebound.
Trading Impressions
The market continued to test the lower end, but it was easy to rebound near 1.1600.
Although the recovery was limited, the trend was not dominated by selling, and adjustments were also observed at the dips.
Strategies tend to differ depending on how you view price movements in the low price range.
Checklist
Will it clearly break below 1.1600?
The impact of uncertainty over French politics on the market
The direction of the dollar as expectations of a Fed rate cut change
Looking back
The pound fell sharply during European trading hours as dollar buying accelerated during New York trading hours.
summary
During Tokyo time, the market continued to lack direction.
After European trading hours, selling became dominant and the market began to test the lower end.
Dollar buying accelerated during New York time, widening the decline.
Today's price movements
As European trading began, selling pressure intensified and there were moves to test the key points.
During New York time, dollar buying was dominant due to the trend in US interest rates.
The sell target line was slightly updated and the stock closed at a low.
Background/materials
There were no notable economic indicators released by the UK, making it difficult to find information.
In the US, expectations of a rate cut grew after the release of the Federal Reserve minutes.
As a result, the dollar was the dominant force in market movements.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 1.2600 area was seen as temporary support.
The upside was held down around 1.2700, and selling on the rebound was effective.
In the short term, the trend of seeking lower prices continued.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On a daily basis, a weak candlestick was formed with a lower shadow.
Unless the price can clearly break above 1.2800, it will be difficult to keep prices above this level.
The downtrend continues in the medium term
Impressions
The pound's recovery was still weak, and the dollar was the driving force behind the move.
The rebound in the low price range was limited, and an imbalance in supply and demand was confirmed.
Despite the lack of material, the market reacted sensitively to dollar factors
Trading Impressions
In the short-term recovery phase, the trend of responding with selling was dominant.
After the milestone line was updated, there were occasional sales aimed at expanding the price range.
Towards the end of the day, there was a focus on consolidating prices at low levels
Checklist
Check whether support around 1.2600 will hold
Determine the strength of the resistance at the 1.2700 level
Keep a close eye on US interest rate trends and changes in the dollar index
Looking back
Although buying was dominant during Tokyo hours, there were instances of pressure during European hours, and although the stock briefly tried to rise during New York hours, it ultimately updated the previous day's low and closed in the low range.
summary
The Australian dollar saw a temporary buying spree, but dollar-buying pressure intensified and the trend was seen as downward.
As a result, the highs were limited, and the day was dominated by movements in the lower range.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, there was a test of around 0.6500.
Selling pressure intensified during European trading hours, with investors looking for lower prices.
There was a temporary rebound during New York time, but the trend eventually strengthened in the downward direction.
Background/materials
There were no notable economic indicators on the Australian side, and the material was limited.
The main reason for the decline was the predominance of dollar buying due to rising US long-term interest rates.
Speculation ahead of the Fed minutes also impacted the market.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Around 0.6500 is seen as a benchmark for the upper limit
On the downside, the 0.6450 area provided temporary support.
The trend of sell-offs on rebounds is clear in the short-term.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
Although there are lower shadows on the daily chart, overall the price continues to move in the low range.
Unless it can clearly recover to 0.6550, it is likely that the recovery will be limited.
In the medium term, the downside target is likely to be around 0.6400.
Impressions
The Australian dollar saw some buying back, but was pushed back by a trend driven by US interest rates.
Market participants tended to sell on rebounds, and movement appeared limited in the absence of clear information.
The Australian dollar lacked strength on its own, making it vulnerable to dollar-led developments.
Trading Impressions
In the short term, buying on dips to aim for a rebound was difficult, and selling on rallies was more advantageous.
Unless the price can clearly exceed 0.6500, buying will be difficult
As prices remained in the low range towards the end of the day, it was a day in which selling positions were likely to continue to dominate.
Checklist
Continue to monitor US interest rate trends
Be aware of the resistance around 0.6500
Keep an eye on the support band around 0.6450-0.6400
FX Journal