Market Summary

The yen's weakest level in seven months has been reached due to a combination of yen selling and dollar buying.

The price has settled in the upper 150 yen range and continues to hover in the high range.

Expected range

Expected to move around 150.50 - 152.00

On the downside, there is a strong support trend around 150.50, while on the upside, 152.00 is likely to be a focus.

tactics

The basic stance is to prioritize buying on dips

While taking advantage of short-term adjustments, we are considering testing the upper limit.

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above 151.50, there will be a push for higher prices

If it breaks below 150.50, there is a possibility of a correction selling.

Pay attention to the time of US economic indicator releases

Nullification Conditions

If the price breaks below 150.30 and the downward trend intensifies, the scenario will be negated.

Also, if the market develops in a way that leaves a long upper shadow, be aware of the slowdown in momentum.

Risk Event

Major economic indicators such as the US CPI

Statements by Bank of Japan officials and changes in policy stance

Changes in dollar supply and demand due to trends in US long-term interest rates

Position Management

Enter with a smaller size than usual to prepare for overheating

Take profits gradually, aiming for 20-40 pips

Stop loss is clearly set below 150.30

Checklist

Will the 150.50 support hold?

Is there momentum to break through 151.50?

Will the market trend change depending on the US CPI and interest rate trends?

Market Summary

Political uncertainty in France has led to a preponderance of euro selling

By Tokyo time, the price had already fallen below the previous day's low and was clearly testing the lower end.

Expected range

Expected to move around 1.0550 - 1.0650

The downside is likely to be around 1.0550, while the upside is likely to be a resistance zone at 1.0650.

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on selling on rebounds

Prioritize short-term recovery and selling

trigger

If it clearly breaks below 1.0550, beware of an accelerating decline

A break above 1.0650 could lead to stronger buying.

Price movements during European trading hours will likely determine today's direction.

Nullification Conditions

A sustained rise above 1.0670 would negate the sell scenario.

Also, if the price tests the lower limit but leaves a long lower shadow, you need to be wary of a rebound.

Risk Event

New reports on French politics

Eurozone economic indicators (especially inflation-related)

Trends in US long-term interest rates and the dollar index

Position Management

Adjust trade size conservatively to prepare for sudden fluctuations

Take profits in stages, aiming for around 20 to 40 pips

Stop loss set when price clearly breaks above 1.0670

Checklist

Will the 1.0550 support hold?

Will there be a move to break through the upper resistance of 1.0650?

Will French political news after European time affect the market?

Market Summary

Selling pressure on the pound continues, and the pound has fallen below the previous day's low during Tokyo time, testing the lower limit.

Even during European trading hours, the selling trend was still evident, limiting the recovery.

Expected range

Expected to move around 1.2170-1.2300

On the downside, support is likely to be seen around 1.2170, while on the upside, resistance is likely to be seen around 1.2300.

tactics

The basic stance is to prioritize selling on rebounds

Even if there is a short-term recovery, we will wait until we see selling pressure before making a move.

trigger

A clear break below 1.2170 could accelerate selling

A scenario where a break above 1.2300 would lead to stronger buying

European index releases are likely to be a factor influencing the direction of the market.

Nullification Conditions

If the price breaks above 1.2320 and the rally continues, the sell scenario will be negated.

Also, if the price tests the lower price and leaves a long lower shadow, you need to be wary of a rebound.

Risk Event

UK economic indicators (especially PMI and employment-related indicators)

Major US indicators and long-term interest rate trends

Comments on UK politics and fiscal policy

Position Management

Smaller than normal size for selling purposes

Take profits gradually, aiming for 20-40 pips

Set stop loss above 1.2320 to limit risk

Checklist

Will the 1.2170 support hold?

Will there be a move to break through the resistance at 1.2300?

Will European economic indicators and US interest rate trends change direction?

Market Summary

Selling pressure continued on the Australian dollar, which fell below the previous day's low during Tokyo time and tested the lower limit.

The market has been weak even after European trading hours, and recovery has been limited.

Overall, the market will continue to explore the lower end of its range, and the focus will be on determining the bottom level.

Expected range

The expected range is around 0.6450–0.6550

The lower limit is likely to be seen as support around 0.6450.

On the upside, the area around 0.6550 is seen as resistance.

tactics

The basic stance is to focus on selling on rebounds

Short-term buybacks are expected to be limited, so we prioritize going with the flow.

Plan your entry while keeping in mind the fluctuations within the range

trigger

If the price breaks 0.6450, downward pressure is likely to intensify.

Above 0.6550, a test of upward movement is expected

Price movements after European hours and the release of US indexes will be factors in fluctuations

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly breaks above 0.6550 and settles in the high range

If the buying momentum strengthens in the short term and the selling scenario collapses

If the price is confirmed to have consolidated at the lower end and rebound

Risk Event

Release of US economic indicators (especially inflation and employment-related indicators)

Chinese economic indicators and resource price trends

Geopolitical risks and changes in overall financial market sentiment

Position Management

Keep entry size to about half of normal size

The target for profit taking is small, around 20 to 30 pips.

Set stop loss at the most recent high or upper limit of the range.

Checklist

Check whether selling will accelerate if the price breaks below 0.6450

Keep an eye on whether there will be a move above 0.6550

Also check the trends of US interest rates and the dollar index

Looking back

Selling of the yen was dominant from Tokyo to Europe, and the yen rose to 153 yen at one point, but it stagnated due to dollar selling following the Fed minutes.

summary

Although the dollar/yen exchange rate maintained a high range, the direction of the exchange rate fluctuated throughout the day due to changes in policy expectations.

While the market was aware of the possibility of an interest rate cut this year, the market developments confirmed that the yen's depreciation remained the underlying trend.

Today's price movements

The yen continued to sell off from Tokyo time through Europe, testing the 153 yen level.

In the early New York trading session, the market was pushed down by profit-taking selling, but after that, buying back supported the lower end.

After the release of the Fed minutes, dollar selling prevailed, and the correction intensified towards the close.

Background/materials

In Japan, there was little expectation of additional monetary policy measures, and the yen was sold due to the interest rate differential.

In the US, dollar buying due to rising long-term interest rates was mixed with expectations of a rate cut, which emerged from the Federal Reserve minutes.

Political factors and geopolitical risks were limited, and the market focus was on the outlook for monetary policy.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The daily chart shows that the upward trend is maintained, but there is a sense of weight on the upside around 153.00.

On the 1-hour chart, the upward movement subsided, and there was a movement that seemed to be trying to confirm the pullback.

The 150.80 to 151.20 range is seen as short-term support.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On a weekly basis, the stock has reached a new high for the first time in seven months and is still in an uptrend.

The 152.50-153.00 range is functioning as an important resistance band, and attention will be focused on price movements after breaking through it.

In the medium term, the support level of the lower 150 yen range will limit downside risk.

Impressions

The tug-of-war between interest rate differentials and policy outlooks has become even clearer, making it difficult to predict the short-term direction.

On the other hand, the yen's depreciation trend has not been disrupted, and the market is prone to sudden fluctuations depending on the new factors.

Trading Impressions

Buying at high prices is risky, so it was important to carefully assess the pullback.

Contrarian selling must be limited to a limited price range, making it a day where position management was put to the test.

As a result, the market was testing both upside and downside, and it was a situation where price range management should have been prioritized over direction.

Checklist

Will it be able to break above the resistance zone around 153.00?

Can the support around 150.80-151.20 be maintained?

Will we continue to pay attention to US interest rate trends and changes in the Fed's stance?

Looking back

Selling was dominant from Tokyo to Europe, and the price tested 1.1600 during New York time, but rebounded, narrowing the decline and closing the day after the Federal Reserve minutes as the dollar was sold.

summary

Uncertainty over the French political situation continued to weigh on the euro, leading to a continued search for lower prices.

On the other hand, there was also buyback demand at low prices, confirming a certain degree of rebound.

Although selling was dominant overall, the day did not see a one-sided decline and included some adjustments.

Today's price movements

Selling continued from Tokyo time through European time, making the downward trend clear.

At the beginning of the New York session, the price briefly fell below 1.1600, but then bottomed out and rebounded.

Towards the close, selling of the dollar took over, and trading ended with a narrowing of the decline.

Background/materials

Political uncertainty in France continued to be seen as a risk factor for the market

US interest rate movements and Federal Reserve minutes prompted dollar selling, supporting the euro/dollar

Eurozone economic data lacked any major surprises, with politics and US monetary policy dominating the picture overall.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The 1.1600 level was seen as a benchmark for the lower limit, and there was a rebound even after it was broken through.

In the short term, the price movement was unstable, testing the lower end but also rebounding.

Although selling was dominant on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts, rebounds with lower shadows were occasionally observed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the trend of searching for lower prices continues, and the recovery phase remains limited.

Resistance is expected to rise towards the 1.1700 level, making it a likely starting point for pullback selling.

On a weekly basis, the price is maintaining the recent low range, and we are still assessing the direction of the price.

Impressions

Although selling dominated the day, the rebound in the low range was also a development that could not be ignored.

Market sentiment remains biased towards selling the euro, but the euro remains vulnerable to dollar factors.

It seems necessary to be cautious about short-term fluctuations in the face of event risks.

Trading Impressions

The focus was on the battle around 1.1600, and the rebound after breaking through reminded investors of the importance of risk management.

In short-term trading, both bottom-following and rebound-targeting were successful, but the environment was not favorable for holding.

There is a strong impression that position adjustments were made due to dollar selling towards the close.

Checklist

Check the battle around 1.1600 and whether there is any rebound.

Reassessing the impact of the Fed minutes on the dollar

Considering the continuity of European political risks in selling the euro

Looking back

During Tokyo hours, selling was ahead and there was temporary buying in Europe, but during New York hours, the market tested the lower end again, and the decline narrowed due to dollar selling following the Fed minutes.

summary

Overall, the day was dominated by selling of the pound.

However, dollar selling led to adjustments at low prices, and the decline was not all down, but rather a narrowing of the decline towards the close.

Although the pound remains weak, it has shown signs of rebounding at key points.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, selling was dominant and the downward trend was noticeable.

There was a temporary buying back during European trading hours, which prevented the price from falling in the short term.

The market tried to move downward again during New York time, but the decline was limited by dollar selling following the minutes.

Background/materials

There was little new news from the UK, and no single factor supporting the pound was seen.

In the US, the Federal Reserve released minutes of its meeting, raising speculation that interest rates will be cut this year, triggering dollar selling.

The overall market was susceptible to dollar-led price movements.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The area around 1.1600 was seen as a turning point for the downside

Although selling continued to dominate in the short term, the market rebounded during New York trading hours and saw a rise in prices.

The recovery was limited, and the upside remained heavy.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the downward trend continues with the recovery being suppressed.

The level around 1.1700 is likely to be seen as a limit for recovery.

In the medium term, the pound selling bias is maintained, and the direction is likely to depend on the dollar.

Impressions

The pound remains weak and is being heavily influenced by the dollar amid a lack of material.

The minutes provided short-term support but did not change the underlying trend.

It can be said that the situation remains one in which caution remains on the downside.

Trading Impressions

Even in the prevailing selling trend, there was a rebound at low prices, so caution was required when entering a follow-up order.

If the decline could be confirmed near 1.1600, there was a possibility of a short-term rebound.

Overall, a sell-on-return stance was dominant, but it was necessary to take into account the rebound triggered by expectations of a rate cut.

Checklist

See how Fed minutes' rate cut expectations affected dollar selling

Reassess whether the support around 1.1600 was effective

Review both the selling points and short-term rebounds and use them in your next strategy.

Looking back

Selling was ahead during Tokyo trading hours, but buying came in during European trading hours and prices rebounded from the downside. During New York trading hours, there was little movement, and dollar selling prevailed following the Fed minutes, forming a bullish candlestick.

summary

Between Tokyo and European trading hours, there was a mix of selling and buying.

There was little notable activity during New York time, but the trend changed following the Federal Reserve minutes late at night.

In the end, the market closed with a bullish candlestick, leaving both lower and upper wicks, making for a day lacking direction.

Today's price movements

The market was under selling pressure in the first half, but rebounded during European trading hours, showing signs of stability.

During New York time, there was a strong sense of stalemate, and a wait-and-see mood prevailed until the Fed minutes were released.

After the announcement, dollar selling prevailed and the Australian dollar recovered.

Background/materials

Markets closely monitored the Fed's monetary policy outlook and reacted sensitively to the minutes.

Growing expectations of a rate cut this year prompted dollar selling

There was little information on the Australian side, and the overall situation was swayed by US factors.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The daily chart is a bullish candle with a long shadow, making it difficult to see the short-term direction.

The downside was supported near the previous day's low, but the upside was also limited.

In the short term, a rebound from the lower end of the range was confirmed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price continues to move within a range, with no clear trend forming.

The battle around the moving average continues, and the market is searching for direction.

A situation where both support and resistance levels are likely to be considered

Impressions

Overall, the trend was driven by US monetary policy, and there was little unique material for the Australian dollar itself.

Price movements are limited, and it remains difficult to gauge direction.

Participants were often happy or sad about dollar-side news.

Trading Impressions

There were some opportunities for short-term trading, with some selling followed by buying back.

However, there was little movement during New York time, and any risky entry was high.

The day was mainly spent adjusting positions to suit the event.

Checklist

See market reaction to Fed policy outlook

Clearly grasp the upper and lower limits of the range

Check whether there are any Australian economic indicators and their impact