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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August New Manufacturing Orders [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August New Manufacturing Orders [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed | - | 🇨🇳 China | - |
Today's Outlook
Following the election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, expectations for fiscal expansion are spreading, and pressure for a weaker yen continues. The yen continues to trade above the psychological threshold of 150 yen, and there is a tendency for the yen to test the upper limit. We are now at a stage where we need to determine how long the short-term momentum can be sustained.
The previous day saw a downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France, but buying back occurred towards the close, leaving a lower shadow on the daily chart. Some have suggested that this movement has solidified the bottom, but this is not enough to provide conclusive evidence, and market instability remains. Today, attention will be focused on the direction of the initial movement, as it will determine whether the bottom will be tested again, or whether the top will be tested after confirming support.
The previous day saw no clear direction, and today is likely to be another day of searching for short-term direction, with no major developments.
The previous day saw a shift in the market, but it remained within a small range, making it a day lacking direction. Today is also likely to be a day of searching for short-term direction, with no major news.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
During Tokyo hours, the yen mainly fluctuated in the 150 yen range, but as European hours began, yen selling became dominant and the level rose. During New York hours, dollar buying intensified against the backdrop of rising US long-term interest rates, and yen selling accelerated all at once. As a result, the yen broke through the highs reached during the employment statistics shock in August and closed at a high level.
Political uncertainty in France continued to weigh on the market, and selling of the euro took the lead from Tokyo trading. As European trading began, the selling momentum accelerated, and the market began to test the lower end of the range. There was a temporary buying spree during New York trading, but selling resumed toward the close, and the euro began to test the previous day's low. However, the downward momentum did not continue, and trading ultimately ended with a small recovery, as if time had run out.
Selling of the pound took the lead during Tokyo hours, and the decline accelerated during European hours. There was a temporary buying back during New York hours, but dollar buying became dominant due to US interest rate trends, and the pound began to fall again. However, the selling momentum weakened towards the close, and the pound ultimately ended up near the previous day's low.
During Tokyo hours, the pair was seen to test the previous day's high, but then lost momentum and fell back. Selling pressure continued into European hours, temporarily widening the lower end. There was a brief buying spree during New York hours, but dollar buying again prevailed against the backdrop of US interest rate trends, pushing the AUD/USD pair downwards. Ultimately, the pair closed near the previous day's low, limiting its ability to test the upper end. Overall, there was little material to report, and it was an impressive day of trading that remained within a range.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
Sanae Takaichi was elected as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, and expectations for fiscal expansion have grown, leading to a continued weakening of the yen and maintaining the dollar-yen exchange rate at the 150 yen level.
Expected range
Expected to be around 149.50 to 151.00
The stock continues to stagnate at a level above the psychological threshold, and there is a sense of it testing the market.
tactics
Buying on dips is the basic strategy, with emphasis on entry near support
On the other hand, be cautious when chasing high prices and prioritize taking profits at the upper limit of the range.
trigger
If the yen clearly breaks through 151.00, selling pressure on the yen may reignite.
If the price falls below 149.50, the dip buying strategy will collapse.
Tokyo time: Government officials make remarks, European time: New York time: focus on US economic indicators
Nullification Conditions
If the price falls significantly below 149.50 and breaks below the lower limit of the range, the dip buying strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if the price breaks through 151.00 and settles there, it will be difficult to implement a sell-on-rebound strategy.
Risk Event
Possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities and related statements
Risk of a US government shutdown and Congressional news
Major US economic indicators and interest rate trends
Position Management
Keep position size at about half of normal size to prepare for increased volatility
Prioritize short-term profits by targeting 30-50 pips for profit taking.
Stop loss is set when the price clearly breaks through support or resistance.
Checklist
Checking the degree of stability in the 150 yen range
Keeping a close eye on the statements and intervention stance of the Japanese authorities
Examining whether US economic indicators will continue to be a factor in dollar buying
Market Summary
There was a downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France, but it was bought back towards the close, leaving a lower shadow on the daily chart, and although it was unstable, it confirmed its support.
Expected range
Expected to be around 1.1660 to 1.1740
There is a possibility of both lower and upper test prices, so attention will be focused on the direction of the initial movement.
tactics
Based on range rotation, consider buying on dips near support and selling on rallies near resistance
Respond flexibly to short-term movements and prioritize taking profits
trigger
If the price clearly exceeds 1.1740, the upward test will intensify.
If it breaks below 1.1660, it may move into a trend of testing the lower end again.
European indexes and statements by important people, as well as US economic indexes in New York, tend to be factors.
Nullification Conditions
If the price falls below 1.1660 and continues to make new lows on the daily chart, the dip buying strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if the price clearly breaks through 1.1740 and settles there, it will be difficult to implement a sell-on-rebound strategy.
Risk Event
Additional reports on French politics and increased political risks
New data released on eurozone inflation
Risk of a US government shutdown and release of major economic indicators
Position Management
Keep position size smaller than usual to prepare for volatile price movements
Take profits at 20 to 40 pips and focus on short-term profit taking.
Stop losses are executed when support or resistance is clearly broken.
Checklist
Check whether the range of 1.1660-1.1740 is maintained
Keeping an eye on the impact of French political developments on the euro
Examining whether US interest rates and US economic indicators will influence the direction of the dollar
Market Summary
The previous day saw a lack of direction, with limited up and down movement.
There is a lack of major news today, so it is expected to be a day of searching for short-term direction.
Reactions to US interest rate trends and UK economic indicators may lead to localized price movements.
Expected range
Expected to trade in a range around 1.3380–1.3480
The downside is likely to be around 1.3380, while the upside is likely to be suppressed around 1.3480.
In the short term, we will focus on trading within a narrow price range.
tactics
Currently, there is a lack of clear direction, so focus on range rotation
Consider buying on dips at lower prices and combine it with selling on rallies at higher prices.
Aim for small profit margins but avoid unreasonable positions
trigger
The focus for the breakout will be whether it clearly exceeds 1.3500.
Beware of a downward break if 1.3360 is broken.
UK economic indicators during European time and US interest rate trends during New York time could be turning points
Nullification Conditions
If the price exceeds 1.3520, the sell-on-return strategy may be negated
Conversely, if the price breaks 1.3340, buying on dips will become less effective.
Check whether the direction changes at the daily closing price
Risk Event
UK economic indicators (construction and service industries)
Reports on US interest rates and the risk of a government shutdown
Sudden fluctuations due to statements by key figures from major countries
Position Management
Maintain small position size due to range expectation
Aim for a small profit of around 20 to 30 pips
Set tight stop loss based on the most recent highs and lows
Checklist
Trade with an eye on the range of 1.3380-1.3480
Check the release times of UK and US economic indicators
Keep your positions light to prepare for sudden news or important statements
Market Summary
The previous day, buying was ahead in Tokyo, selling dominated in Europe, and dollar buying progressed in New York, with trends varying from market to market.
However, overall, the price remained in a narrow range around 0.6600, and continued to lack direction.
There is little notable new information today, so the market is likely to be searching for short-term direction.
Expected range
Expected to trade in a range centered around 0.6580–0.6640
The lower limit is likely to be around 0.6580, and the upper limit is likely to be around 0.6640.
No major trends are likely to emerge, with small movements expected.
tactics
In the short term, the basic tactic is to rotate the range.
The idea is to buy on dips when the price approaches the bottom and sell on rallies when the price approaches the top.
It is effective to avoid large positions and aim for small profits.
trigger
A breakout will occur if there is a clear movement above 0.6650.
A downside break occurs when a break below 0.6570 is confirmed.
Flows during European time zones and US interest rate trends during New York time will be key
Nullification Conditions
If the price exceeds 0.6660, the strategy of selling on rallies may be negated.
Conversely, if the price breaks below 0.6560, buying on dips will be less effective.
Keep an eye on the daily closing price to see if there are any signs of a negation of the range.
Risk Event
Economic indicators related to Australia and China are released
US interest rate news and government shutdown risk
Sudden information from statements by important figures of major countries
Position Management
Maintain a light position as it is in the center of the range
Take profits early at around 15 to 25 pips
Stop loss is set tightly based on the most recent high and low prices
Checklist
Respond with an awareness of the range of 0.6580 to 0.6640
Check the trends in US interest rates and Chinese economic news
Keep your positions light in case of unexpected events
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
After trading in the 150 yen range during Tokyo hours, yen selling prevailed during European hours, and during New York hours, yen selling accelerated against the backdrop of rising US interest rates, breaking through the August high and closing at a high.
summary
The weak yen trend was supported by political factors and rising US interest rates.
Having crossed the milestone, the market is now testing the sustainability of short-term price movements.
The market is entering a phase where it is searching for new upside potential.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the market was mainly trading in the range of 150.20 to 150.80.
During European trading hours, selling of the yen became dominant, and the exchange rate rose to a level approaching 151.00.
During New York time, dollar buying progressed on the back of rising US long-term interest rates, and the exchange rate temporarily reached around 151.50.
Background/materials
Takaichi was elected as the LDP president, and expectations of fiscal expansion led to yen selling.
In the US, rising long-term interest rates supported dollar buying.
There was no particular risk aversion factor, and trading focused on a weaker yen prevailed in the market.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The latest rally saw the price clearly break through 151.00, hitting a new August high.
The short-term moving average is supporting the lower end, maintaining buying pressure.
The RSI is in the high range, and there is a sense of short-term overheating.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The uptrend continues on the daily chart, with the price rising above its lows.
On the weekly chart, the price has broken above long-term resistance, showing signs of strengthening the trend.
On the other hand, the price is approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger Band, so a correction remains possible.
Impressions
A combination of political factors and US interest rates solidified the yen's weakness on this day.
Short-term price movements have shown strength, but we must remain cautious about overheating.
The market is entering a waiting stage for the next news, and we want to carefully check the sustainability of the movement.
Trading Impressions
A dip-buying stance was effective, but new entrants needed to be cautious when crossing a turning point.
In short-term trading, taking profits at high prices was effective, and buying on the heels of the trend was risky.
There was room for strategic entry while checking the range cutoff.
Checklist
Check the sustainability after breaking through 151.00
Keep an eye on whether US interest rates will remain supportive
Prepare for the risk of short-term adjustment due to overheating
Looking back
Selling of the euro became dominant from Tokyo time onwards and accelerated in Europe. There was a temporary buyback in New York, but it was sold again towards the close, but the decline did not continue and trading ended.
summary
Concerns over French politics continue to weigh on the euro, resulting in an overall weaker trend
On the other hand, the momentum of the downward trend slowed due to buying back during New York trading hours, and the market recovered slightly in the final stages.
Overall, the trend of selling the euro continued, but there were times when it was not possible to push through.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the index fell below 1.10, increasing downward pressure.
Selling accelerated during European trading hours, with the exchange rate testing the upper 1.09 range.
During New York time, there was a temporary buying back, bringing the price back down to the low 1.10s, but it was sold off again towards the close.
Background/materials
Continuing political uncertainty in France has undermined the euro's investment potential.
US interest rates continued to support the dollar, highlighting the relative weakness of the euro.
Weak European economic data also reinforced the selling of the euro.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The battle continued around January 10th, and it was seen as a psychological turning point.
Support was initially confirmed near the previous day's low, but the rebound was limited
The short-term moving average continues to point downward, suggesting a heavy upper limit
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the trend of cutting down highs continues, and the recovery phase tends to be limited.
On a weekly basis, the correction from the 1.12 range continues, and the 1.09 level is a potential medium-term support area.
The long-term trend remains in favor of the dollar
Impressions
Political factors continue to drive selling of the euro, but the market remains cautious as it has not fallen sharply.
It seems that the situation has continued to maintain a certain balance as buying has occurred while testing the lower end.
The market continues to be difficult to move in one direction, and the market is prone to fluctuations depending on the developments.
Trading Impressions
The strategy of riding the trend of short-term selling was effective, but there were times when adjustments were forced due to buying back during New York time.
The trading battle continued around the milestone of 1.10, making it suitable for short-term trading.
Carrying over positions makes it difficult to determine the direction, so careful position management is required.
Checklist
Check for news coverage of major political risks
Observe whether support remains around 1.10
Keep a close eye on US interest rate trends and the dollar index
Looking back
Selling of the pound became dominant from Tokyo time onwards, and the decline accelerated during European time. However, although there was temporary buying back during New York time, it was sold again towards the close and ended near the previous day's low.
summary
The day started with a sell-dominated market, and while there were some buybacks, the strength of dollar buying was noticeable.
Towards the end of the day, selling momentum weakened and trading remained at lower levels, resulting in a lack of direction.
Overall, it was a day in which the market continued to search for lower prices while reacting to new information.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, selling was dominant, and the price fell to around 1.29.
The decline accelerated during European trading hours, bringing the previous day's low into sight.
There was a temporary buying back during New York time, but dollar buying became dominant again, causing the level to fall.
Background/materials
Weak data from the UK's services and manufacturing sectors has led to uncertainty about the economic outlook.
In the US, rising long-term interest rates were perceived as a factor in buying dollars, which restrained the pound's recovery.
The risk-averse mood across Europe also had an impact, with the dollar showing particular strength among currencies in general.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 1.2900 area was seen as temporary support.
In the recovery phase, the upper limit will be around 1.2950, and in the short term, the market will be dominated by sell-offs.
On the downside, the previous day's low remained a key level.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to test the previous day's low, and the focus will be on whether or not a lower shadow will remain.
On the 4-hour chart, the price continues to test the lower limit of the range, and there are no clear signs of the decline bottoming out.
In the medium term, the 1.2800 level is seen as the next important support zone.
Impressions
It was a day dominated by selling, but there were signs of the decline bottoming out towards the close.
The market has been volatile, caught between concerns about the UK economy and the direction of US interest rates.
To determine the direction, it is necessary to assess future economic indicators and interest rate trends.
Trading Impressions
In the short term, selling on pullbacks was effective in many situations.
However, given the buying back seen during New York trading hours, there are still risks if the market is solely selling.
This was a situation that required us to focus on trading with small price fluctuations.
Checklist
Check out the UK economic data results
Tracking trends in US long-term interest rates and the dollar index
Keep an eye on whether the support band around 1.2900 will hold
Looking back
After testing the previous day's high during Tokyo hours, the market stalled, and after Europe, selling prevailed and the market closed near the previous day's low.
summary
There was little new material from Australia, and overall developments continued to be driven by external factors.
Dollar buying prevailed due to US interest rate movements, and the Australian dollar was pushed back until the end of the day.
The stock ultimately ended the day in the lower range, with limited directionality.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price temporarily rose to around 0.6640, testing the previous day's high.
Selling pressure intensified during European trading hours, and the price attempted to break below 0.6600.
There was a temporary buying back during New York time, but towards the end of the day it was sold again and settled around 0.6580.
Background/materials
There were no new indicators related to the Australian economy, and there was limited news related to the Chinese economy.
In the US, rising long-term interest rates were a concern, and the trend of dollar buying spread to the Australian dollar.
Overall, the market was vulnerable to external factors as participants searched for clues.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Around 0.6640 was seen as the immediate upper resistance.
Support is forming around 0.6580, and the short-term range is becoming clearer.
The intraday fluctuation range was around 60 pips, and volatility remained at a low level.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the upper shadow of the previous day and the lower shadow of today appear in contrast, resulting in a series of candlesticks with little sense of direction.
The moving average line has become more flat, and the lack of trend continues.
There is a possibility that the price will continue to test the ups and downs within the wide range of 0.6550–0.6700.
Impressions
A lack of material on the Australian side has led to market attention being focused on US interest rates and other external factors
Even though there are times when the price fluctuates up and down in the short term, it seems that it lacks the strength to break out of the range.
The market is in a state of awaiting further news, making it easier for cross-holdings to continue.
Trading Impressions
While the upward movement was limited, the downward movement was also firm, so caution was required for both short and long positions.
Short-term scalping mainly consisted of buying on dips and selling on rallies within a narrow price range.
Rotational strategies such as aiming for a rebound at the bottom of the range or selling at the top were easily noticed.
Checklist
Will the trend in US long-term interest rates influence the overall direction of the dollar?
Will the Chinese economy and small fluctuations in resource prices affect the Australian dollar?
The focus of short-term decisions will be on which way the 0.6550–0.6640 range will break out.
FX Journal