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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | September Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | August Retail Sales [MoM] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | August Retail Sales [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statements by VIPs | 🇪🇺 Europe | Statement by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde | |
| Statements by VIPs | 🇬🇧 England | Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks | |
| Closed | - | 🇨🇳 China | - |
news
[Japan] The LDP presidential election was held on the 4th, and Sanae Takaichi was elected.
France's Prime Minister Lecornu resigns
Today's Outlook
Following Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election, the yen has been weakening due to expectations of fiscal expansion. The week started with a large gap, and yen selling continued to dominate. First, we want to see how long this momentum will continue. On the other hand, there is a possibility of the gap being filled, but with a difference of over 200 pips, it seems unlikely that it will be filled immediately.
The risk of a U.S. government shutdown and weak ISM data continue to weigh on the dollar, while rising inflation in the eurozone has led to speculation about the ECB's policy stance, leading to mixed signals. The range-bound movement has continued for several days, with the market exploring whether to test the upper or lower limits. A small gap was seen at the opening of the week, raising concerns about gap-filling. Overall, while the market is responding to the signals, it lacks a clear direction and continues to move in a corrective manner.
Weak UK service and manufacturing PMIs have led to a cautious outlook for the economy, while the risk of a government shutdown and weak ISM in the US are holding back the dollar's upside. Amid these mixed signals, the market continues to search for direction. The market opened with a small gap at the start of the week, and the market is focused on filling that gap. Overall, while the market is reacting to the signals, no clear trend has formed, and the market continues to move calmly.
While the RBA's decision not to cut interest rates is seen as providing some support, the risk of a government shutdown in the US and the weakness of the ISM are weighing on the dollar, and there are mixed signals. Trends in the Chinese economy and resource prices continue to attract attention as background factors, but the market has remained in a small range for several days, and is in a phase where it will test whether it will break out in either direction. Overall, the market is moving in a corrective manner, with investors waiting to see how things develop.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Following Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election, expectations for fiscal expansion spread, leading to a significant weakening of the yen. The yen opened up during Tokyo hours, rising and breaking through the 150 yen level, leading to a dominance of yen selling. The yen selling trend continued during European hours, and there was a sense that the dollar would test the upper limit. In the early New York session, dollar buying intensified on the back of US interest rate movements, but ultimately the day ended with the dollar remaining in the high range, and the market was left assessing its sustainability.
The euro was heavily sold during European trading hours due to concerns about political instability in France, including reports of Prime Minister Le Cornu's resignation. During New York trading hours, dollar buying increased on the back of US interest rate trends, significantly reducing the decline. The exchange rate stabilized at the bottom amidst volatile price movements.
Until European trading hours, there was little sense of direction and price movements were limited. Towards New York trading hours, dollar buying became dominant due to the trend in US interest rates. As a result, the pound/dollar pair tested the upper limit and ended the day maintaining a high range.
Buying was ahead during Tokyo hours, but selling took over during European hours. During New York hours, dollar buying progressed against the backdrop of US interest rate trends, and the AUD rose again. Towards the end of the day, trading remained in the high range, but overall, while the trend changed depending on the market, no major direction was apparent and the market remained within a small range.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election has raised expectations for fiscal expansion, leading to a weakening of the yen.
The week started with a large gap, and yen selling has continued to dominate since then.
Expected range
Expected to be around 148.50 to 150.50
Although there is a sense of gap filling, there is a difference of over 200 pips, and in the short term, the upper limit is being tested.
tactics
The basic strategy is to buy on dips, and if there is a downward trend, take a stance of gradually picking up
However, be cautious when buying after the market, keeping in mind the possibility of gap filling.
trigger
If the price clearly breaks above 150.50, there is a possibility that yen selling will accelerate.
If it falls below 148.50, the movement will become more focused on filling the gap.
Political news is a major factor during Tokyo hours, while US economic indicators are a major factor during New York hours.
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks below 148.50 and moves toward filling the gap, the dip buying strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if the price clearly exceeds 150.50 and settles, the sell-on-return strategy will no longer be viable.
Risk Event
Additional reports and key comments regarding the Japanese government's fiscal policy
Risk of a US government shutdown and release of major economic indicators
Trends in long-term interest rates that affect the interest rate differential between Japan and the US
Position Management
Keep position size smaller than usual and consider gap filling risk
Take profits in stages, aiming for 30 to 50 pips
Set stop loss when support or resistance is broken to prepare for unexpected movements.
Checklist
Check whether it is moving within the range of 148.50 to 150.50
Keep a close eye on the progress of filling windows
Examining the impact of fiscal policy and US indicators on the exchange rate
Market Summary
The risk of a US government shutdown and a weak ISM are weighing on the dollar, while rising inflation in the eurozone is raising speculation about ECB policy, leading to a range-bound movement with little sense of direction.
Expected range
Expected price movements to be around 1.1700 to 1.1800
Neither the top nor bottom has been able to break through, and the market has been in a state of flux for several days.
tactics
In the short term, the basic strategy is to rotate within a range, buying on dips near support and selling on rallies near resistance.
Prioritize short-term profit taking until a breakout occurs
trigger
The focus for the breakout will be whether it clearly exceeds 1.1800
A break below 1.1700 is expected
Eurozone indicators and US economic indicators released during European hours are likely to trigger fluctuations
Nullification Conditions
A significant break below 1.1700 would negate the dip buying strategy.
On the other hand, if the price breaks through 1.1800 strongly and settles there, the sell-on-return strategy will no longer be viable.
Risk Event
U.S. government shutdown progress and related news
Eurozone inflation indicators and comments from ECB officials
US economic indicators (especially employment-related indicators)
Position Management
Keep position size to about half of normal size to prepare for reversal risks specific to range markets
Aim for profit taking of around 20 to 40 pips, and take profits early when prices are slow to move.
Set stop loss when support or resistance is clearly exceeded, and respond flexibly to avoid being caught in false starts.
Checklist
Check whether the range of 1.1700-1.1800 is maintained
Examining the impact of US political risks and economic indicators
Keeping an eye on the impact of eurozone inflation data on ECB policy outlook
Market Summary
While the UK PMI showed weak results, raising concerns about the economy, the risk of a US government shutdown and the weakness of the ISM weighed on the dollar, and the GBP/USD pair continues to search for direction.
Expected range
Expected range centered around 1.3400 to 1.3500
The market is currently searching for a breakout either up or down, and a gap filling at the start of next week is also in sight.
tactics
Based on range rotation, buy near support and sell near resistance
Prioritize short-term price fluctuations until a clear breakout is confirmed.
trigger
The focus for the breakout will be above 1.3500, and the trigger is likely to be European indexes or US economic announcements.
A break below 1.3400 will be closely watched, and if the gap filling movement accelerates, downward pressure could intensify.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks through 1.3500 and settles there, the sell-on-rebound strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if the price falls significantly below 1.3400 and settles below it, the buying on dips strategy will no longer be viable.
Risk Event
UK economic indicators and comments from BoE officials
News reports and negotiation progress regarding the U.S. government shutdown
Trends in release of major US economic indicators
Position Management
Keep the position size at about half of the usual size to prepare for the reversal risk inherent in range markets.
Aim for taking profits at 20 to 40 pips, and consider closing early if price movements are sluggish.
Set stop loss when support or resistance is clearly exceeded, to prepare for unexpected price movements.
Checklist
Check whether the 1.3400-1.3500 range is maintained
Understand the evolving risk of a US government shutdown
Examining the impact of UK economic indicators and BoE statements on the market
Market Summary
The RBA's decision not to cut interest rates has supported the Australian dollar, while the risk of a government shutdown in the US and the weakness of the ISM have weighed on the dollar, leaving the AUD/USD pair lacking direction amid mixed factors.
Expected range
Expected to move around 0.6580 to 0.6650
The price continues to search for a direction to break out of the range that has continued for several days.
tactics
For the time being, we will focus on range rotation, combining buying on dips at support levels and selling on rallies at resistance levels.
Until a breakout is confirmed, focus on short-term price fluctuations and maintain a strategy that prioritizes taking profits.
trigger
The focus will be on whether the breakout will be able to settle above 0.6650
A break below 0.6580 will be the warning line for a downside break, and fluctuations are likely to intensify with the release of indexes during European and New York hours.
In particular, news related to resource prices and the Chinese economy could act as triggers.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks through 0.6650 and settles there, the sell-on-rebound strategy will be negated.
If the price falls significantly below 0.6580 and settles below it, the buying strategy will no longer be viable.
Risk Event
RBA-related statements and Australian economic indicators
News reports and progress in negotiations regarding the U.S. government shutdown
Fluctuations in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
Position Management
Set a conservative position size and prepare for a sudden breakout
Aim for taking profits at around 20 to 40 pips, and prioritize early profit taking when price movements are slow.
Set stop loss when the price clearly breaks through a major support or resistance level, and respond flexibly to avoid being caught up in false starts.
Checklist
Check whether the range of 0.6580-0.6650 continues to be maintained
Examining the impact of the RBA's policy stance and statements on the market
Keep an eye on how US and Chinese data will affect the Australian dollar
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election led to a weakening of the yen on expectations of fiscal expansion, with the dollar/yen exchange rate breaking through the 150 yen range and closing at a high.
summary
The market continued to rise after a gap opened up during Tokyo hours, and selling of the yen became dominant.
During European trading hours, there was a sense of a test of the upper limit, and during New York trading hours, dollar buying intensified against the backdrop of US interest rate trends.
Although there was some selling towards the end of the day, the stock remained at a high level, and the focus was on whether it could sustain its strength.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the exchange rate opened and rose sharply to over 150.00, with yen selling taking the lead.
During European trading hours, yen selling was dominant and there were times when the exchange rate tested the 150.30 level.
Dollar buying occurred early in the New York market, pushing the exchange rate to around 150.40, but a correction was seen towards the close.
Background/materials
Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election led to yen selling on expectations of fiscal expansion.
US interest rate trends supported dollar buying, and the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the US was taken into consideration.
On the other hand, the risk of a US government shutdown remains, weighing on the dollar.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
150.00 was considered a psychological milestone and was surpassed by a rapid rise during Tokyo hours.
The upper resistance level on the day was around 150.40, and profit-taking selling led to a sluggish performance towards the close.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, attention was focused on whether the price would settle above 150.00, and the possibility of breaking out of the range was explored.
The price is clearly above the 200-day moving average, confirming a strong support zone in the short to medium term.
Impressions
Political events have led to yen selling, pushing up the market, but the sustainability of this trend remains unclear.
Movements after breaking through the milestone were accompanied by caution among market participants, and aggressive follow-up appeared to be limited.
Trading Impressions
In the short term, buying on dips using gaps worked, but towards the close, the price range narrowed due to adjustments.
Many trades prioritized taking profits ahead of a major milestone, making it a day well suited to short-term trading.
Checklist
Confirmed fixation level of over 150.00
Watch closely to see if US interest rate trends will support dollar buying
Examining the impact of government shutdown risk reports on the dollar/yen
Looking back
The euro was sold during European trading hours due to political turmoil in France, but dollar buying came in during New York trading hours, reducing the decline.
summary
During European trading hours, the news of Prime Minister Le Cornu's resignation triggered selling of the euro, causing the market to fall sharply.
During New York time, dollar buying progressed due to US interest rate trends, and the euro/dollar pair rebounded from its lows.
As a result, the large decline was limited, and the price recovered to around 1.1710 towards the close.
Today's price movements
The decline began around 1.1740 and fell to around 1.1660 during European trading hours.
After that, dollar buying progressed during New York time, and the euro/dollar pair rebounded and closed around 1.1710.
The market experienced short-term volatile price movements and continued to lack direction.
Background/materials
The instability in French politics was perceived as a political risk in Europe, triggering selling of the euro.
Inflation-related comments from ECB officials provided support, but overall market sentiment was limited
While the risk of a government shutdown remains in the US, interest rates have boosted dollar buying.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.1740 was seen as the upper resistance level on the day, and was not broken through during European trading hours.
The 1.1660 level provided support on the day, and became the starting point for a rebound during New York time.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On a daily basis, the price continued to trade around 1.1700, and the price was seen consolidating at the lower end.
A break of 1.1650 is a warning level, while 1.1800 is seen as a medium-term resistance zone.
Impressions
Political uncertainty in Europe weighed on the euro, but was offset by US interest rate factors.
As a result, no major direction was apparent amidst the volatile movements, and the market appears to be waiting for further information.
Trading Impressions
Selling on rebounds worked during the downturn during European trading hours, but profit-taking by short-term investors stood out during the rebound during New York trading hours.
Towards the end of the game, position adjustments became the norm, and there were many moves to avoid carrying over.
Checklist
Check whether the price movement around 1.1700 will stabilize
Keeping an eye on the impact of French political developments on the euro
Examining how US interest rates and political risks will affect the dollar
Looking back
There was little sense of direction during European trading hours, but dollar buying intensified during New York trading hours, and the pound/dollar pair closed at a high.
summary
From Tokyo to Europe, there was a lack of material and price ranges were limited.
As New York time approached, dollar buying increased due to US interest rate movements, pushing down the pound
The stock ultimately closed at a high level, with no sign of breaking out of the short-term range.
Today's price movements
The price fluctuated around 1.3430-1.3450 without any major movements, fluctuating slightly depending on the time period.
From early New York trading onwards, supported by dollar buying, the exchange rate rose to the 1.3480 level and maintained that level until the close.
The range for the day was narrow and no major direction was apparent.
Background/materials
UK construction PMI and composite PMI were weak, dampening growth expectations
In the US, rising interest rates supported dollar buying, while the risk of a government shutdown remained.
Political factors and economic indicators intersected, and no clear trend was formed.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 1.3430 area acted as support on the day, holding up the lower end.
1.3480 was the upper resistance level and was tested several times before the close, but was unable to break through.
Range rotation was effective in short-term trading
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The level around 1.3400 was seen as medium-term support, limiting downside potential.
The market continues to see the 1.3500 area as a strong resistance.
The battle between the upper and lower limits of the medium-term range continues.
Impressions
Dollar buying was noticeable due to US interest rate factors, while pound economic indicators showed weakness
However, overall, the price range remains limited, and market participants continue to seek a broader direction.
Trading Impressions
In short-term trading, range strategies that took advantage of narrow price ranges were the main focus.
European trading was mostly quiet, so trading in line with New York trading was effective.
The tendency to prioritize taking profits was conspicuous, and many people avoided carrying over their positions.
Checklist
Check whether the range of 1.3430-1.3480 is maintained
Watch closely to see whether US interest rate trends will continue to support dollar buying
A look at how weak UK economic data could affect the pound
Looking back
Buying was ahead during Tokyo hours, but selling dominated during European hours, and during New York hours, dollar buying led to a rebound and the market closed at a high.
summary
There were no major developments on the Australian side, and the market was dominated by external factors.
During European trading hours, selling was dominant and there were times when the price tested the lower end, but during New York trading hours, the price was supported by dollar buying.
Ultimately, while the price remained in the high range, no major direction emerged and the price continued to move within the range.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price rose to around 0.6610, with buying prevailing.
During European trading hours, the price was pushed back to around 0.6600 and selling intensified.
During New York hours, dollar buying was triggered by US interest rate movements, causing the price to rebound to around 0.6620.
Background/materials
There were no new economic indicators released from Australia, making it a day lacking in material.
In the United States, the risk of a government shutdown and weak economic indicators remained a concern.
Resource prices and the Chinese economy were seen as factors supporting market sentiment.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
0.6600 acted as support and held down the downside
The upper resistance level around 0.6620 on the day was reached and the price was not broken.
Although the price range is narrow, the battle between support and resistance is clearly evident.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The range of 0.6580 to 0.6650 continues, making it difficult to determine the direction in the medium term.
The moving average line is showing a flat trend and no clear trend can be confirmed.
In the medium term, the level above 0.6700 continues to be seen as a strong resistance zone.
Impressions
The Australian dollar lacked unique factors and was dominated by fluctuations due to US factors.
Market participants are waiting for major events, limiting large trades
There was a noticeable trend of prioritizing taking profits amid short-term price movements.
Trading Impressions
Buying on dips during Tokyo hours was effective, but profits were taken as the price fell during European hours.
The rebound during New York time was mainly due to short-term investors buying back, and its sustainability was limited.
Overall, the day was dominated by short-term trading with an eye on range rotation.
Checklist
Check if 0.6600 support remains valid
Watch closely to see whether US interest rate trends will continue to support dollar buying
Check whether new economic data from Australia and China will affect the market
FX Journal