Market Summary

Although selling of the dollar intensified during European trading hours the previous day, buying back occurred towards the end of trading in New York, reducing the decline.

Due to the US government shutdown, the release of major indicators has been suspended, and price movements are showing signs of correction due to a lack of information.

The market is trading in the high 147 yen range, keeping an eye on the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and the outcome of interim budget negotiations.

Expected range

We expect a small range centered around 147.20 to 148.20.

Movements in US long-term interest rates are showing signs of settling down, and the direction of movement appears to be limited.

The upper limit will be heavy around 148.20, while the lower limit will need to find support around 147.20.

tactics

For the time being, there is a lack of clear information, so we will choose a tactic based on range rotation.

Consider selling on a pullback near the upper limit, and consider buying on dips in small amounts near the lower limit.

It is advisable to keep your position light in case of sudden breaks.

trigger

If there is a move to break above 148.30, we should be wary of the possibility of increased buying in the short term.

When the price clearly falls below 147.00, selling pressure is likely to prevail.

Be aware of situations where interest rate trends during European hours or changes in U.S. Treasury yields are triggers.

Nullification Conditions

If it remains within the range of 147.50 to 148.00, it will be difficult to determine direction and the tactic will be ineffective.

Assumptions also collapse if there are sudden major fluctuations due to important people's statements or intervention observations.

If a sudden fluctuation that cannot maintain the range is confirmed, switch to waiting and seeing.

Risk Event

Reports of progress in the US government's interim budget negotiations and the prolonged shutdown.

A chain reaction of sudden fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and risk-off in the stock market.

Changes in interest rate hike expectations due to comments by Bank of Japan officials.

Position Management

Keep position size to about half of normal size and aim for short-term rotation.

Set the target profit target at around 20 to 30 pips, and prioritize early profit capture.

Set your stop loss at a level 10 to 15 pips outside the expected range.

Checklist

Will the range of 147.20 to 148.20 continue to be maintained?

Are there any changes in US long-term interest rates or bond market trends?

Is the news of the interim budget negotiations affecting market sentiment?

Market Summary

The previous day, the market was in a range, fluctuating up and down due to US interest rate trends and eurozone inflation indicators.

The partial U.S. government shutdown has left markets without clues as key economic data is not released.

The rate continues to hover in the low 1.17 range as attention is focused on accelerating inflation in the eurozone and the ECB's stance.

Expected range

We expect the price to move mainly within the range of around 1.1680 to 1.1780.

The downside is likely to be supported around 1.1680, while the upside is likely to be around 1.1780

With a lack of clear information, it is likely that the price will continue to move within a range.

tactics

For the time being, we will focus on range rotation and respond in small increments while checking the upper and lower levels.

Consider buying on dips near the lower limit and selling on rallies near the upper limit.

Keep your positions small and prepare for sudden breaks

trigger

Beware of short-term buying accelerating when the price clearly breaks above 1.1800

If the price breaks below 1.1660, expect selling pressure to increase.

Economic indicators and movements in US bond yields during European trading hours are likely to trigger changes.

Nullification Conditions

If the range of 1.1680-1.1780 continues to hold, the effectiveness of the tactic will diminish.

Invalidate assumptions even if sudden changes occur due to unexpected statements by important figures or intervention observations.

If the direction is unclear on the short-term chart and the price movement converges, wait and see.

Risk Event

Progress in negotiations over the US government's interim budget and reports of a prolonged shutdown

Revised Eurozone Consumer Price Index and ECB Officials' Statements

News on US employment statistics and interest rate trends

Position Management

Limit your risk by keeping your position size at about half of what you normally would.

Aim for 20-30 pips as your target for profit taking, and prioritize reliable profits.

Set the stop loss at a level 10 to 15 pips outside the range.

Checklist

Will the range of 1.1680-1.1780 be maintained?

Are there any changes in US interest rates or government bond yields?

Are there any comments from ECB officials or news related to inflation in the eurozone?

Market Summary

The US government shutdown prevented major indicators from being released the previous day, limiting the dollar's upside.

In the UK, some BOE members have expressed a positive view towards lowering interest rates, leading to mixed speculation over the policy stance.

Despite fluctuating up and down, it rose slightly and continued to fluctuate in the upper 1.34 range.

Expected range

Expect a range of around 1.3420-1.3520

The focus will be on whether the downside can be supported around 1.3420.

On the upside, resistance around 1.3520 is likely to be a concern.

tactics

In the short term, trade based on range rotation, while assessing the balance between ups and downs.

Consider buying on dips near the lower limit, and consider selling on rallies near the upper limit.

Maintain a light position due to lack of new information

trigger

If the price breaks above 1.3530, buying is likely to strengthen.

A break below 1.3400 could lead to selling

UK economic indicators and US bond yield movements during European trading hours are likely to be triggers

Nullification Conditions

If the price remains within the range of 1.3420-1.3520, the strategy will be difficult to implement.

If there is a sudden change due to sudden news such as a statement by a BOE official, we will review our tactics.

If the direction is unclear on the short-term chart and trading volume is thin, wait and see.

Risk Event

Negotiations over the US government's interim budget and reports of a prolonged shutdown

UK economic indicators and additional comments from BOE members

Changes in US employment-related indicators and interest rate trends

Position Management

Limit your risk by keeping your position size at about half of what you normally would.

Set the profit taking amount to 20-30 pips and accumulate profits in small increments.

Stop loss is set at a level 10 to 15 pips outside the range.

Checklist

Will the range of 1.3420-1.3520 be maintained?

Will there be any major changes in US interest rates or government bond yields?

Are you checking whether there are any statements by BOE officials or news related to the UK economy?

Market Summary

Although the previous day's price fluctuated up and down, the daily chart ultimately became an insubstantial crosshair.

The partial U.S. government shutdown has prevented major economic indicators from being released, leaving the dollar in a slump.

Australia has confirmed a shrinking trade surplus, and fluctuations in resource prices are also affecting prices.

Expected range

Expect a small range centered around 0.6460-0.6540

On the downside, support is likely to be found around 0.6460, while on the upside, weight is felt around 0.6540.

Amid a lack of material, it is likely that the price will continue to fluctuate within a range

tactics

For the time being, we will focus on range rotation and respond to short-term fluctuations in the upper and lower levels.

Consider buying on dips near the lower limit, and consider selling on rallies near the upper limit.

Keep your position light and prioritize preparation for sudden breaks

trigger

A breakout above 0.6560 could signal stronger short-term buying momentum.

If it breaks below 0.6440, selling is likely to prevail.

Australian economic data during Asian trading hours and interest rate movements in Europe and the US could be potential triggers

Nullification Conditions

If it remains in the 0.6460-0.6540 range, the clear tactical effect will be diminished.

If there are sudden changes due to statements by important figures in Australia or the United States, the assumptions will be disrupted.

When there is little sense of direction in the short-term chart and trading volume is declining, prioritize a wait-and-see approach.

Risk Event

Australia's trade balance and comments from RBA officials

Negotiations over the US government's interim budget and concerns about a prolonged shutdown

US employment statistics and bond market trends

Position Management

Limit your risk by keeping your position size to about half of what you normally would.

Take profits early, aiming for 20-30 pips.

Set stop loss at a level 10 to 15 pips outside the range to prepare for unexpected fluctuations.

Checklist

Will the range of 0.6460-0.6540 hold?

Are there any new developments in Australian economic indicators or resource prices?

Are there any changes in the US political situation or interest rate-related news?

Looking back

During European trading hours, dollar selling led to a decline, but buying back during New York trading hours reduced the decline.

summary

The partial US government shutdown meant that data releases were postponed, leaving the market short of clues.

The day saw a mix of dollar selling and buying, limiting direction.

The daily chart showed a small body and a lower shadow, indicating a corrective movement.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo time, the price fluctuated around 147.50 and there was no significant movement.

During European trading hours, the exchange rate fell to around 147.20, with dollar selling prevailing.

During New York time, there was a buying spree and the price returned to around 147.80.

Background/materials

US government's interim budget negotiations have stalled, raising concerns about a prolonged shutdown

With no major economic indicators released, investors focused on interest rate trends and statements by key figures.

Although expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike were high, new information was limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the hourly chart, the range of 147.20 to 147.80 was kept in mind and the price fluctuated up and down.

The RSI was neutral at around 50, making it difficult to determine direction.

The short-term moving average was flat and no clear trend was confirmed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart showed a small body with a lower shadow, indicating the presence of a pullback.

The price continues to move around the 20-day moving average, and the Bollinger Bands are contracting.

In the medium term, the price range of 147.00 to 148.50 is considered the main range.

Impressions

Due to the lack of major news, the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude and price movements were limited.

With policy-related uncertainty remaining, we feel that caution is needed against sudden movements.

In situations where it is difficult to determine the direction, it seems appropriate to respond by focusing on the range.

Trading Impressions

For short-term traders, the target was movement between 147.20 and 147.80.

Rather than hoping for a breakout, the strategy of accumulating small price ranges was a good fit.

There was a strong wait-for-new-information attitude, making it difficult to take aggressive positions.

Checklist

Will the range of 147.20 to 147.80 continue to be maintained?

Are there any reports of progress in the US government's interim budget negotiations or a prolonged shutdown?

Are there any changes in the interest rate differential between Japan and the US or in the trends of US bond yields?

Looking back

During European trading hours, euro buying took the lead, but dollar buying took over after the New York market opened, widening the decline. However, buying back came in towards the end of the day, narrowing the decline.

summary

The partial shutdown of the US government meant that major indicators were not released, leaving the market lacking material.

Eurozone inflation indicators and the ECB's stance were taken into consideration, but they were not decisive.

As a result, the market lacked direction and settled in the low 1.17 range.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the market moved little around 1.1730, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing

During European trading hours, the exchange rate rose to around 1.1770 at one point, with euro buying taking the lead.

During New York trading hours, dollar buying intensified, and the pair attempted to break below 1.1700, but recovered to the 1.1720 range towards the end of the day.

Background/materials

With no data released due to the US government shutdown, investors focused on interest rates and statements by key figures.

Eurozone inflation rate rises to the low 2% range, providing a test of the ECB's stance

In the US, expectations of an interest rate cut were simmering, and the trend in dollar interest rates influenced the market.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the hourly chart, the price fluctuated between 1.1700 and 1.1780.

The RSI was neutral around 50, limiting short-term momentum.

The short-term moving average is flat, suggesting a range-bound rotation.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart had a small body and upper and lower wicks, giving it a shape with little sense of direction.

The 20-day moving average remained almost flat, and the trendless situation continued.

The 1.1680-1.1780 range is the main range and medium-term trend line.

Impressions

With a lack of material, the exchange rate remained within a range and no major direction was observed.

The absence of policy-related and economic indicators appears to have dampened market participants' enthusiasm.

Volatility was limited and trading was mainly focused on ranges.

Trading Impressions

Buying on dips near 1.1700 and selling on rallies near 1.1780 were likely to be noticed.

Due to a clear lack of material, a strategy focused on short-term trading was appropriate.

We were waiting for new information to determine the medium- to long-term direction.

Checklist

Confirm that the range of 1.1700-1.1780 will be maintained

Pay attention to ECB officials' statements and eurozone indicators

Check how the dollar reacts to reports of US interest rates and interim budget negotiations

Looking back

During European trading hours, pound buying took the lead, but dollar buying took over after the New York market opened, widening the decline. However, buying back came in towards the end of the day, narrowing the decline.

summary

The partial US government shutdown led to major indexes being postponed, leaving markets short of clues.

The UK side was aware of expectations of a BOE interest rate cut and speculation regarding monetary policy.

Overall, the market fluctuated up and down due to a lack of material, but the sense of direction was limited.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the exchange rate remained small, around 1.3470.

During European trading hours, the exchange rate rose to around 1.3520, and pound buying temporarily became dominant.

During New York trading hours, dollar buying intensified and the pair attempted to break below 1.3440, but returned to the 1.3480 range towards the end of the day.

Background/materials

Due to the US government shutdown, scheduled economic data was not released and interest rate headlines took center stage

On the UK side, comments from BOE members signaled a positive stance toward interest rate cuts.

The lack of risk events kept market participants calm

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the hourly chart, the range of 1.3440 to 1.3520 was kept in mind and the price continued to fluctuate up and down.

The RSI remained around 50, showing no clear signs of overheating.

The short-term moving average was flat, indicating a trendless situation.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart had a small body with upper and lower wicks, indicating uncertainty.

The 20-day moving average was flat, showing little medium-term direction.

The price range of 1.3400 to 1.3550 was considered the main range.

Impressions

Limited new material in both the US and UK led to less active market participants

There were instances where the market reacted to interest rate trends and statements by important figures, but this lacked sustainability.

In the short term, the market appears to have continued to fluctuate between adjustments.

Trading Impressions

Short-term trading focused on buying on dips at 1.3440 and selling on rallies at 1.3520.

It was difficult to make a decision on taking a medium- to long-term position due to a lack of information.

Small rotations within the range were a realistic strategy.

Checklist

Will the range of 1.3440-1.3520 continue to be maintained?

Pay attention to BOE member comments and UK indicators

Check the impact of US interim budget negotiations and US interest rate trends

Looking back

In the early European session, Australian dollar buying took the lead, but in the latter half of the European session, dollar buying became dominant and the price fell, but by the end of the New York session, buying back narrowed the decline.

summary

The partial shutdown of US government agencies led to a lack of material for the day as major indicators were postponed.

The upside was limited due to concerns about Australia's shrinking trade balance and fluctuations in resource prices.

Price movements were mostly within a range, with limited directionality.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the price continued to move slightly around 0.6500.

In the early European session, buying came in and the price rose to around 0.6530.

After the second half of the European trading session, dollar buying intensified and the exchange rate fell to around 0.6470, before returning to the 0.6500 range in the second half of the New York trading session.

Background/materials

US interest rates and interim budget news led the market headlines

In Australia, news of a shrinking trade surplus led to awareness of sluggish external demand

Intraday fluctuations in resource prices influenced short-term Australian dollar flows.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The range of 0.6460 to 0.6540 was taken into consideration, and reversals up and down were noticeable.

The RSI remained neutral around 50, showing little momentum.

The short-term moving average is flat, suggesting a return to a range.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart showed a crosshair with a small body, indicating a wait-and-see mood.

The price moved near the 20-day moving average, and the Bollinger Bands contracted slightly.

0.6440 and 0.6560 are seen as potential divergences for the time being.

Impressions

Amid a lack of material, interest rates and headline-driven sensitivity were the only factors that made the day particularly sensitive.

Flows that react to range reversal points rather than breaks were dominant

Volume was limited and it seemed like follow-up would be short-lived.

Trading Impressions

When the price approached the lower limit, buying on dips and selling on rallies worked well.

It was appropriate to prioritize taking small profits and suppress expectations of a breakout.

It was safe to keep the size about half of the normal size to prepare for sudden changes.

Checklist

Confirm that the range of 0.6460-0.6540 will be maintained

Ensure that US interest rate headlines and resource prices are aligned

Check for any changes to the schedule of Australian indicators and key figures' remarks.