Market Summary

The dollar/yen pair was sold off heavily the previous day, falling to the high 146 yen range, and attention is focused today on whether the downward trend will continue.

While investors are aware of U.S. interest rate trends and expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown is a cause for concern.

Caution is required as imbalances in supply and demand due to month-end rebalancing may cause temporary fluctuations.

Expected range

The focus is on price movements around 146.20 to 147.80.

The lower limit will be around 146.00, while the upper limit is expected to test 148.00.

We need to assume that a range move is more likely than a major trend reversal.

tactics

In the short term, it is likely that the basic approach will be to sell on rebounds.

There is a possibility that it will try to recover to around 147.50, and we will see how it reacts from there.

As there remains a desire to buy at dips, we will respond carefully and avoid being overly biased in one direction.

trigger

On the upside, the focus will be on following suit if there is a clear break above 148.00.

On the downside, if the price falls below 146.00, there is a possibility that the movement to search for lower prices will intensify.

US employment-related indicators and reports on the risk of a US government shutdown will influence price movements.

Nullification Conditions

If the price steadily breaks above 148.50 and settles there, the sell-on-rebound strategy will be negated.

On the other hand, if it falls significantly below 146.00, it will be necessary to search for a new low and reconsider tactics.

If the expected range is significantly deviated from, reset your position.

Risk Event

Whether there is any news coverage related to the risk of a US government shutdown.

the results of key U.S. economic indicators, particularly employment statistics and inflation indicators;

Commentary and observations on the Bank of Japan's policy stance.

Position Management

Keep the size lower than usual and avoid holding excessive positions before and after the event.

Profits are taken in increments of 20 to 40 pips to ensure reliable profits.

Set clear cut-loss points such as above 148.50 or below 145.80.

Checklist

Check the balance between US interest rate trends and expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike.

Be aware of the impact of supply and demand flows due to month-end rebalancing.

They are sensitive to reports of the risk of a US government shutdown.

Market Summary

Today, comments from President Lagarde and German indicators provide clues to the interest rate outlook.

Speculation about US interest rates and US indexes is also mixed, so the tug-of-war between suppressing upside and buying back is likely to continue.

Be aware that month-end rebalancing flows may amplify short-term fluctuations

Expected range

We expect the price to test the ups and downs of the 1.1600–1.1800 range.

The upper limit is likely to be seen as a target for a rebound around 1.1760 to 1.1800.

Focus on the downside reaction around 1.1640-1.1600

tactics

For the time being, we will switch between buying on dips and selling on rallies based on range rotation.

Before and after the event, tighten your positions to prepare for widening spreads and sudden changes.

When breaking, check for a re-return to avoid relying on momentum.

trigger

Breaking above 1.1800, there is room for a test of the pullback, and the initial movement during European hours is confirmed.

With a clear break below 1.1600, caution is needed regarding downward pressure, and continuity after the New York market entry will be monitored.

Immediately after Lagarde's remarks and German indexes, observe whether there will be a reversal after the spike.

Nullification Conditions

If the trend continues to significantly exceed the expected range, review the range assumptions.

If the price settles at 1.1820 or falls below 1.1580, a restructuring of tactics will be necessary.

If the basis is lost due to temporary shadows derived from the indicator, return to square.

Risk Event

Lagarde's remarks and key German indicators

US interest rate headlines and major US indexes

Intermittent flows around end-of-month rebalancing and London FIX

Position Management

Keep the size smaller than usual and spread out your entries, focusing on the average opening price

Take profits in stages at 15 to 35 pips increments, prioritizing the preservation of unrealized profits

Place stop loss outside the milestone and handle re-entry with time diversification

Checklist

The tone of Lagarde's remarks and the direction of surprises in German indicators

US interest rates by time zone and changes in flows from European hours to New York

Timing of end-of-month rebalancing impact fading and degree of price movement convergence

Market Summary

The previous day, the price was heavy on the upside and the recovery was slow, so today we will carefully monitor whether there are any signs of a reversal.

There is a strong sense of waiting for new information as speculations about US interest rate trends, the BoE's stance, and UK wages and PMIs clash.

It is important to note that month-end rebalancing flows may cause temporary imbalances in supply and demand.

Expected range

Expected to be around 1.3380–1.3560

The resistance level is around 1.3400 on the downside, and 1.3520-1.3560 on the upside.

Tokyo tends to be limited to fluctuations, while the direction of European trades is important

tactics

For the time being, prioritize range rotation and switch between selling on rallies and buying on dips in the short term.

Before and after the index, limit open positions to prepare for spreads and sudden fluctuations.

If there is a one-way flow due to the end of the month, avoid forcing a counter-trend

trigger

Breaking above 1.3560 has receded the dominance of pullback selling, and there is room to test the dip.

A break below 1.3400 will likely increase downward pressure, with the focus now on the battle for 1.3380

The time when European indicators and important people make statements tend to be the starting point for a breakout.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to remain stable in the 1.3600 range, we will reconsider the range assumptions.

If a clear break of 1.3360 becomes established, the downward bias will intensify, so we will reconsider our tactics.

Refrain from following false breakouts without volume

Risk Event

UK high-frequency indicators and dignitaries' statements

US interest rate headlines and major US indexes

Intermittent flows due to month-end rebalancing

Position Management

Keeping the size smaller than usual, split entry and diversified profit taking are the basics

Profit taking is carried out in stages in increments of 20 to 40 pips

Stop loss is set outside the milestones such as above 1.3560 or below 1.3360

Checklist

Is there a bias between the initial movement during European trading hours and the flow after the New York opening?

Has the interaction between UK indicators and US interest rate outlook changed the direction?

Have you misjudged the timing when the impact of the end-of-month rebalancing will fade?

Market Summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its policy interest rate today, so attention will be focused on its interest rate stance.

Uncertainty over the risk of a U.S. government shutdown is likely to influence dollar movements.

Month-end rebalancing flows may amplify temporary fluctuations

Expected range

It is expected to fluctuate around 0.6560–0.6660

On the upside, the resistance zone around 0.6640 to 0.6660 is being considered.

We want to see a reaction on the downside around 0.6560-0.6580

tactics

For the time being, prioritize range rotation and respond to small buys on dips and small sell-offs on rallies.

Before and after policy decisions, hold down open positions to prepare for sudden fluctuations

It is advisable to refrain from following suit until the flow after the announcement becomes clear.

trigger

Breaking above 0.6660 will allow for potential buying on dips, confirming continuity during European trading hours

If the price breaks 0.6560, downward pressure is likely to intensify, and the reaction during New York hours will be the focus.

The initial movement immediately after the announcement of the Australian policy interest rate is likely to trigger a trend

Nullification Conditions

If the stable trend in the 0.6680 range continues, the assumption of a sell-off will need to be revised.

If the price continues to break below 0.6540, we will reconsider our buying strategy.

If the price falls outside the expected range, return to square one and re-establish your position.

Risk Event

Reserve Bank of Australia policy rate announcement and statement

US government shutdown risk and related headlines

US major economic indicators and interest rate news

Position Management

Keep the size smaller than usual and split the entry to be conscious of the average price

Take profits in increments of 15 to 30 pips to accumulate profits

Set stop loss outside the milestone to prepare for the possibility of a false start

Checklist

Tone of statement and direction of initial response after Australian policy interest rate announcement

Reports and market reaction to the risk of a US government shutdown

The time period and intensity of the impact of month-end rebalancing

Looking back

In Tokyo, dollar selling dominated, pushing prices down, while Europe continued to recover and slow down. After entering New York, prices continued to test lows.

summary

The day was prone to short-term fluctuations due to the combination of US interest rates, the Bank of Japan's observations, and the end-of-month rebalancing.

The recovery was limited, with a noticeable convergence to around 148.00, and the direction of the price movement was dependent on the material.

Today's price movements

Tokyo saw a downward trend, while Europe's recovery continued to slow, and New York saw the market test the lower end again.

On the upside, the area around 148.40-148.50 was heavy, while on the downside, the reaction around 147.50-147.80 was in focus.

Background/materials

The outlook for U.S. interest rates and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown dictated the direction of the dollar.

The flow was intermittently affected by expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike and headlines of key figures' comments.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

As the price rebounded, the trend continued to decline, and short-term sell-offs were likely to occur.

The 148.20-148.50 range was seen as a resistance band, with the 147.80-147.50 range being monitored as a potential support range.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the 149.00 level was seen as a turning point, with the 147.00 to 147.50 range seen as a potential support area.

In the medium term, the market remained prone to fluctuations based on factors, with the assumption that the market would return to a range.

Impressions

I felt that it was more effective to wait before reaching a turning point than to chase in one direction.

During periods of thin liquidity, caution was required regarding widening spreads and shadows.

Trading Impressions

Open positions were small and dispersed, and the strategy of switching between selling on rallies and buying on dips in the short term worked well.

It was appropriate to take profits in small increments and set conservative stop losses outside the milestones.

Checklist

US Interest Rate Headlines and Bond Futures Direction

Impact of the London FIX and end-of-month rebalancing

Times of statements by important figures and major US indexes, and whether or not there was any expansion in price ranges

Looking back

Tokyo and Europe saw buying take the lead, but were pushed down by the previous day's highs, and New York was unable to break out and remained in a range.

summary

Lagarde's comments and speculation about German data have shaken interest rate expectations, and the direction is awaited

Month-end rebalancing flows amplify short-term fluctuations, limiting price range

Options trading is facing a turning point, making it difficult for prices to rise either up or down

Today's price movements

The upside is likely to stall around 1.1760-1.1800, slowing the recovery

The lower limit was around 1.1710-1.1700, with buying back and the price hesitant to fall.

Traffic from Europe to New York is mainly at 1.17 km/h

Background/materials

The ECB's future stance is highly dependent on data, and the outlook for rate cuts remains uncertain

Speculation about U.S. interest rates and U.S. indexes will swing the dollar's direction intraday

Noise increases around the time of London FIX due to rebalancing and headlines

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the highs are falling and the lows are rising, but the trend is converging.

There are many reactions around the 5-20 EMA band, so it is difficult to gain momentum.

Checking for a return after a break is effective

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, we will be watching closely the battle at key points, assuming the range of 1.1680-1.1850 will be maintained.

The distance from the 200-day moving average is small, so the direction will depend on the indicators.

On the weekly chart, the upper resistance just before 1.19 is weighing on the price

Impressions

On days when events and flows overlap, time zone habits are more important than level guessing.

A passive approach of waiting before a turning point works better than trying to follow through unreasonably.

Trading Impressions

Divide open positions into small lots to adjust the average price and prioritize short-term profit taking

Immediately after the spike, there is a high risk of a reversal, so refrain from entering until further confirmation.

Place stop loss outside the milestone and rebuild with false returns

Checklist

The tone of Lagarde's remarks and the direction of surprises in German indicators

Imbalance in flows before and after the London FIX and whether or not price ranges widened

US interest rate headlines and continuity in early NY trading

Looking back

Amid a flow focused on month-end rebalancing, the sense of direction was limited and fluctuations around the London fix were noticeable.

summary

British indexes and US interest rate forecasts were mixed, and the mood of waiting for new information continued.

The recovery was slow and the upside was heavy, but the market conditions were favorable for buying back at the dips.

Today's price movements

Tokyo is in a wait-and-see range, while Europe tries to recover but the upside is limited.

After entering New York, there was a steady flow of stocks, and the price range narrowed towards the end of the day.

During the day, the temperature remained mostly in the high 1.34 range to around 1.35.

Background/materials

US interest rate headlines and BoE stance speculation shook short-term flows

Month-end rebalancing was prone to inducing one-way flows around the time of FIX.

The assessment of UK GDP and PMI was divided, making it difficult for growth to occur either up or down.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The recovery is likely to slow around 1.3520-1.3560

Buybacks are likely to occur around 1.3440-1.3400

In the short term, there was a mix of rising and falling prices, and the trend was converging.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart continues to search for direction within the range of 1.34 to 1.36.

There are many reactions around the moving average range, and the durability of the break is limited.

To break out, we need volume and timeframe support.

Impressions

I want to focus on the time zone and the relationship between milestones rather than guessing the level.

Spikes before and after the fix should be handled with caution as they may be reversals.

Trading Impressions

Divide open positions into small lots to adjust the average opening price and prioritize small profit taking

When the market moves backward, calmly cut losses outside the milestone and assume reconstruction.

Immediately after the event, refrain from following the event until confirmation of resumption.

Checklist

Flow bias and price range expansion before and after the London FIX

US interest rate headlines and continuity in early NY trading

Changes in the tone of UK indexes and key figures' comments and market reaction

Looking back

The RBA maintained its policy stance, but cited the risk of inflation rising sharply, leading to a buying trend.

summary

The hawkish interpretation of the statement has supported the Australian dollar, creating a market environment where short-term pullbacks are likely to be limited.

Speculation about US interest rates and the risk of a US government shutdown remained prone to fluctuations over time.

Today's price movements

The market rose gradually from the beginning of the Asian session and continued to test highs after entering Europe.

There were many instances where the price maintained its upward trend despite temporary spikes before and after the index.

A sense of accomplishment emerged towards New York, and growth slowed, but prices remained mostly in the high range.

Background/materials

The RBA's decision to keep rates unchanged and to be cautious about inflation curbed expectations of early easing.

US interest rate outlook and shutdown-related headlines swayed dollar direction

Month-end rebalancing and biased flows around the London fix caused short-term fluctuations

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The battle for the 0.6600 level continued, and buying back was easy at the dips.

While the market maintained a high in the uptrend, the momentum for chasing higher prices was lacking.

The downward pressure on the short-term moving average was shallow and the rebound was quick.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The wide range of 0.6400 to 0.6700 was maintained, with trading mainly at key points.

The deviation from the 200-day moving average was limited, so trend judgments were awaited.

On the weekly chart, selling pressure and buying pressure were balanced, suggesting a holding pattern.

Impressions

Immediately after the event, the emphasis on checking the return of the spikes was felt to be effective.

Prioritize time zones and changes in liquidity over targeting levels

Trading Impressions

The strategy of thoroughly diversifying open positions and small amounts, and adjusting the average opening price worked well.

Profits were taken in small increments and stop losses were fixed outside the milestone.

When the time came to reverse, I returned to square and rechecked the scenario.

Checklist

Reinterpretation of RBA statements and change in tone of statements by key figures

US interest rate headlines and continuity in early NY trading

Imbalance in month-end flows around the London FIX and whether price ranges widened