Market Summary

US indicators are limited and the situation is calm after the August PCE

On the Japanese side, the authorities' excessive restraint on fluctuations and the Bank of Japan's stance are likely to be taken into consideration.

The 150.00 mark is likely to act as upward pressure, and a battle is underway in the mid-149 yen range.

Expected range

The expected range is around 149.20–150.20

The upper limit is expected to be around 150.00-150.20, which is likely to lead to sell-offs.

The downside is expected to be at 149.20-149.40, but be careful of a run if it breaks through.

tactics

Basically, prioritize range rotation

Before 150.00, we will lean towards selling on the rebound, and around 149.30, we will consider buying on the dip.

During times when there is little advantage, limit the size and wait for the headlines.

trigger

If it breaks above 150.20, switch to short-term trend following and follow with limited risk

149.20 Clear break and switch to selling on rebound. Focus on time period after London.

The unidirectional movement of US interest rates and the dollar index can be confirmed.

Nullification Conditions

After breaking above 150.20, the price immediately fell back below 150.00, accompanied by high trading volume.

The break below 149.20 turns out to be a fake, and the price rebounds sharply to above 149.80 in a V-shape.

A situation where liquidity declines due to increased expectations of intervention and widening spreads

Risk Event

Headlines of statements by important figures and messages from authorities

US interest rate trends and increased volatility in related markets

Sudden risk on/off due to US government and geopolitical news

Position Management

The risk per transaction is approximately 0.5–1.0% of the account balance.

Set profit taking within the range of around 8-15p and immediately reduce it if the price goes against the trend.

Place stop loss outside the most recent high and low and withdraw immediately if the trigger is not established.

Checklist

Changes in plate thickness and number of hits around 150.00

US interest rates and USD index direction confirmed

Changes in flows after Tokyo mid-day and early London

Market Summary

Following the sharp decline on the 25th, the recovery is slow

Buying and selling are mixed just before the most recent low, and confirmation of the lower price takes priority.

US data limited, focus on inflation expectations and interest rate trends

The bottom is not solidified, so we will wait for European and US time to see what direction it will take.

Expected range

Around 1.1700–1.1780

The upper limit is expected to be around 1.1760-1.1780, with a tendency for sell-offs to occur.

Downside observations remain around 1.1700–1.1680

Beware of widening fluctuations depending on events

tactics

Basically, prioritize range rotation

The rebound will likely be around 1.1760, making it easier to start selling.

The pullback is near 1.1700, and after a rebound is confirmed, small purchases will be considered.

No training is also an option during times when there is little advantage

trigger

Breaking above 1.1780 will shift to short-term trend following

1.1700 Clear break and switch to selling on rebound

Increase in trading volume after entering London and confirmation of synchronous market

Nullification Conditions

After breaking above 1.1750, the price quickly fell back to below 1.1750, causing the market to deteriorate.

Negative V-shape as price quickly returns above 1.1730 after breaking below.

Headline factors continue to widen spreads

Risk Event

Breaking news and statements from key figures related to European inflation

Unidirectional movements of US interest rates and the dollar index

Geopolitical and government-related breaking news

Position Management

The risk per transaction is approximately 0.5–1.0% of the account balance.

Profit taking is targeted at 8-15p, and if growth slows down, take profits gradually

Stop loss is outside the most recent high and low or ATR x 1.0-1.5

Gradually reduce the lot size during consecutive losses

Checklist

Dollar index and US interest rates are aligned

Will Takayasu be updated from the early morning London start?

Changes in board thickness and number of hits

Market Summary

After falling sharply on the 25th, the previous day saw only a correction in price movements due to a lack of direction for the US dollar and mixed expectations regarding UK interest rates.

It cannot be said that the lower limit has been solidified, and we are still in a phase of searching for a direction.

The outlook for monetary policy in the United States and the United Kingdom is conflicting, making it difficult to see a clear trend.

Expected range

We expect the price to fluctuate around 1.3050 to 1.3250.

The immediate battle line will be around 1.3150.

If it breaks out either up or down, there is room for the range to expand.

tactics

In the short term, we will be aware of a sell-off, while also looking for room for buying back after the bottom is confirmed.

A cautious stance is advisable until a clear break above 1.3150 is achieved.

Assuming a correction phase, we will focus on short-term rotation within the range.

trigger

On the upside, a break above 1.3250 will be a buying indicator.

On the downside, if it breaks below 1.3050, the selling trend is likely to intensify.

U.S. economic indicators and statements by important figures could be short-term triggers.

Nullification Conditions

A clear break above 1.3300 would negate the pullback sell scenario.

If the trend continues to rise above the daily highs, the assumption of downward dominance will collapse.

If there is a sudden change in sentiment, the scenario will need to be revised.

Risk Event

US economic indicators (consumption-related and price indicators) affect the dollar in general.

Attention will be focused on comments from BOE officials and data related to UK inflation.

We need to be vigilant about the market's reaction to U.S. interest rate trends.

Position Management

Position sizes should be more conservative than usual.

Aim for taking profits at 20 to 30 pips, and take profits in small increments, assuming corrective movements.

Stop losses are set shallowly based on the most recent high and low prices.

Checklist

Check the direction based on the battle for 1.3150.

Be aware of the times of US economic indicators and important people's statements.

Do not carry over positions when a risk event occurs.

Market Summary

After a big drop on the 25th, the yen remained in a narrow range the previous day due to a lack of direction for the US dollar and concerns about the Chinese economy.

While there is a sense of downward pressure, we must also be cautious of short-term attempts to recover.

There is little strong support for the Australian dollar alone, and it remains vulnerable to external factors.

Expected range

Expect price movements to center around 0.6550 to 0.6700

The area around 0.6650 is seen as the immediate battle line.

If it breaks out either up or down, there is room for the range to expand.

tactics

Basically, be aware of selling on rebounds, and focus on taking profits in small increments during short-term rebounds.

Maintain a selling-dominant stance until a clear break above 0.6650

It is advisable to take a short-term approach, focusing on rotational trading within a range.

trigger

On the upside, if the price breaks above 0.6700, buying pressure is likely to intensify.

On the downside, the trend of searching for lower prices will intensify if the price breaks below 0.6550.

US economic indicators and key figures' comments could trigger a short-term change in direction

Nullification Conditions

A clear break above 0.6720 would negate the pullback sell scenario.

If the daily high continues to rise, the assumption of a downward trend will collapse.

A rapid improvement in market-wide risk appetite will also necessitate a review of the scenario.

Risk Event

US economic indicators (personal consumption and price-related indicators) will affect the dollar overall

News about Chinese economic indicators and trends tends to have a direct impact on the Australian dollar

RBA officials' comments could sway the Australian dollar in the short term

Position Management

Keep position sizes small and limit risk assuming a correction phase

The target for profit taking is 20 to 30 pips, and the basic approach is to take profits in small increments.

Set stop loss based on the most recent high or low price to avoid going too deep

Checklist

See if the battle for 0.6650 continues

Keep track of US economic indicators and China-related news

Do not carry over positions when a risk event occurs

Looking back

Comments by a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board prompted stronger buying of the yen, and the yen continued to fall without any significant recovery, erasing the gains made on the 25th.

summary

Event-driven day as key figures' comments and sluggish US interest rates combined

The break below the previous day's high and low led to a wave of selling, and the recovery was limited

Towards the end of the day, the price continued to trade at its intraday lows, and there was a sense of weakness in the short term.

Today's price movements

The upper limit was heavy during Tokyo trading, and the downward pressure intensified as the market entered Europe.

The recovery was slow in the early New York session, but the trend continued after retesting the previous day's low.

The price range expanded compared to the previous day, with noticeable reactions around PP and S1.

Background/materials

Comments by a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board provided a clue to the yen's buying direction.

The dollar's upside was limited by sluggish US interest rates and a somewhat risk-averse market sentiment.

Actual demand flow nearing the end of the month amplified fluctuations.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The movement below PP was long, and the return was limited to a short waveform.

The return to the previous day's low and PP was slow, and there were many instances where the price did not break out above.

The Bollinger ±2σ range widened, and the downward pressure continued with wicks.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The 4-hour chart showed a sell-off trend after breaking below the short- to medium-term EMA.

On the daily chart, lower highs and new lows were noticed, and the market shifted to a battle for the lower end of the range.

On the weekly chart, the actual volume continued to shrink, and the direction seemed to be waiting for indicators.

Impressions

The initial reaction to the news was quick, and it seemed like positions had been adjusted in advance.

The results were influenced by time periods and liquidity bias rather than by the level.

It seemed more effective to take profits early than to pursue them further towards the end of the day.

Trading Impressions

Following the break was limited to the initial movement, and after that, short-term rotation while waiting for a recovery worked.

Shallow profit taking settings worked well, and early withdrawal was safe when the market went against the trend.

The entry plan based on the indicators and VIP schedules worked well.

Checklist

Check the change in position between PP and Takayasu from the previous day

Simultaneous monitoring of US interest rates and stock prices to understand market trends

Limit your position size around the time of important statements and indicators.

Looking back

Buying continued from Tokyo to London and New York, but the price was heavy near the New York highs and profit-taking put pressure on growth, resulting in a slump.

summary

The sluggish growth of US interest rates and the strength and weakness of European indicators made it difficult to gauge the direction of the dollar on this day.

With the high price of the 25th still in mind, selling on the rebound and buying on the dip were in conflict, and the market recovered slightly in the final stages.

There was a strong mood of waiting for an event, and in the short term, the market was more likely to see movement rather than an expansion in price ranges.

Today's price movements

Tokyo started trading above the previous day's closing price, with a gradual buying spree taking hold in the early stages.

Buying accelerated in London, testing the previous day's high, but the upside was capped near the highs in early New York.

The price temporarily fell back due to profit taking at high levels and selling on rebounds, but then recovered slightly after a round of downward pressure.

Background/materials

A pause in the rise in US interest rates and a revision in the US economic outlook dampened dollar buying.

The strength and weakness of prices and business sentiment in the eurozone were mixed, making it difficult to determine the direction of the ECB's stance.

Risk appetite was not excessively biased, and movements in stocks and credit also limited the fluctuations in the exchange rate.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

After breaking above PP, it stalled near R1 and then reverted back to PP.

The market could not confirm the substance above the previous day's high, and the continuation of the breakout could not be confirmed.

The Bollinger index expanded slightly, but it only stayed outside ±2σ for a short time and the pullback was quick.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The 4-hour chart is moving above the short- to medium-term EMA bundle, but the momentum of the upward move has slowed.

On the daily chart, the body of the stock has shrunk slightly, forming a shape similar to a spinning top, highlighting the weight of the upper limit of the range.

At the weekly chart level, the price was unable to break away from the center of the range, and the direction remained one of waiting for an event.

Impressions

The momentum of chasing higher prices slowed in New York, and it appears that the difference in time and liquidity influenced price movements.

New investors were slow to follow up in the high price range, and short-term rotation was more effective in the pullback phase.

The price range was moderate, and it was more important to identify reaction points than to follow extreme trends.

Trading Impressions

Breakouts were limited to the initial movement, and quick profit taking was effective when a stall at R1 or the previous day's high was confirmed.

The pullback was waited for a reaction near the PP and confirmation of the body of the candle, and a thorough withdrawal was made when the price reversed slightly.

The size was kept below normal and further reduced before and after the event to limit risk.

Checklist

Does the relationship between PP and the previous day's high and low indicate whether buying is dominant or whether it is just a swing?

Recheck the time of US indicators and important statements, and see if you are able to reduce your positions immediately before and after.

Are you able to determine whether the horse will lose momentum or continue to grow based on the relationship between the shadow and the body around R1 and the round number?

Looking back

Buying was ahead from Tokyo to London and New York, but it stalled near the highs in New York, and after a pullback, it recovered slightly and closed

summary

The day was difficult to determine direction due to the sluggish growth of US interest rates and speculation about the BOE's stance.

The buying trend lost momentum in New York, and profit-taking and sell-offs became dominant at higher prices.

In the final stages, the price picked up on the dip and recovered after a round of downward pressure.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, the market continued to buy back slowly, maintaining its previous day's closing price.

Momentum picked up in London, with the possibility of testing the highs reached on the 25th and the 1.3200 level.

NY fell back from the high range, but then recovered slightly.

Background/materials

A pause in the rise in US interest rates and a wait-and-see attitude towards US economic indicators dampened dollar buying.

UK inflation trends and BOE expectations have kept the pound from rising.

Actual demand flow nearing the end of the month amplified the ups and downs in price.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

After starting on PP, the traffic stalled near R1 and then returned to the PP direction.

The market was unable to confirm the substance above the previous day's high, and the continuation of the breakout was not confirmed.

Although it moved above the short-term EMA, the momentum to hit new highs was limited.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The 4-hour chart continued to move near the short- to medium-term EMA bundle, and momentum deviation was small.

The daily chart saw a slight contraction in the actual body, highlighting the weight of the upper limit of the range.

The weekly chart was moving near the center, and the direction seemed to be waiting for an event.

Impressions

It was a day when the difference in liquidity depending on the time of day was likely to affect performance.

The trend in the high range was difficult to follow, so quick profit taking based on the reaction point was effective.

It worked better to build it around the premise of repetition of traffic rather than continuity of breaks.

Trading Impressions

Testing the high price was limited to the initial stage, and once a stall was confirmed, profits were secured in the short term.

I entered the pullback after waiting for a reaction near the PP and confirmation of the body of the candle.

Before and after the event, we kept the size down, and when the reverse occurred, we retreated to a shallower position.

Checklist

Does the relationship between PP and the previous day's high and low indicate whether buying is dominant or whether it is just a swing?

Are you able to determine whether the price will stall or continue rising based on the relationship between the shadows and the body near the high on the 25th and around 1.3200?

Are you able to reduce your positions around the time of US indicators and BOE-related statements?

Looking back

Buying led from Tokyo, followed by a shallow pullback in London. The market reached a new high in New York and closed in the high range.

summary

The dollar was weighed down by sluggish US interest rates, while the Australian dollar remained firm thanks to support from resource prices.

The momentum of the market's pursuit slowed in the high range, and the day saw repeated tests of the upper limit, with some pullbacks in between.

Clear trend acceleration was limited, and the market remained awaiting an event.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, the PP was broken and buying took the lead.

London rallied from a dip near 0.6650 and tested R1

After hitting around 0.6700 in New York, the price closed at a high.

Background/materials

A pause in the rise in US interest rates and a wait for indicators kept the dollar's upside in check.

China-related headlines and resource price movements drove the Australian dollar

The RBA's neutral stance continued, leaving the market vulnerable to external factors.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The transition on PP was long, and the reaction around R1 was noticeable.

The price remained above the short-term EMA, the push was shallow, and the reversal was quick.

The Bollinger has widened slightly, with more movement along the upper band.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The 4-hour chart has returned to a position above the EMA bundle, approaching a dip-buying dominated formation.

The daily chart is testing the upper limit of the range between 0.6550 and 0.6700.

While the price continued to rise, the momentum bias was not excessive.

Impressions

It was a day when the difference in liquidity between time periods was likely to affect performance.

Following in the high price range made it difficult to increase profit margins, so rotating at reaction points was effective.

Prioritize risk management over expectations before and after an event

Trading Impressions

The break was limited to the initial movement and entered thinly, and when it was confirmed that the growth was stagnant, I quickly took profits.

When the price was down, I waited for a reaction around PP or 0.6650 and picked up the price in small increments.

The retrograde retreated shallowly, and the size was kept below normal.

Checklist

Check the duration of stay and the strength of regression between PP and R1

Double-check the time of US data and China-related headlines

Observe the pullback at 0.6650 and the relationship between the shadows and the body around 0.6700.