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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | September Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding fresh food) for Tokyo's wards [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Personal Income [Monthly change] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) [Monthly change] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE deflator) [Year-on-year change] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE core deflator, excluding food and energy) [month-on-month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE core deflator, excluding food and energy) [Year-on-year change] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Final) |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day, strong US economic indicators were in focus, and dollar buying prevailed amid wavering expectations of a US interest rate cut. New important indicators are due to be released today, and expectations regarding interest rate outlooks are likely to change depending on the results. In addition, with the weekend rebalancing flow also occurring, short-term supply and demand fluctuations may influence price movements. Overall, the market is likely to continue trading in the high range, so attention should be paid to reactions to new information.
The previous day, US economic indicators exceeded expectations, and dollar buying intensified amid speculation of a rate cut, pushing the euro down. New important indicators are due to be released today, and views on interest rate differentials are likely to change depending on the results. Furthermore, with the weekend rebalancing flow coinciding with it, attention should be paid to temporary fluctuations due to supply and demand factors.
The previous day, dollar buying prevailed following strong US economic indicators, pushing the pound down against the dollar. The indicator results were much better than market expectations, shaking expectations of a rate cut and strengthening market movements focused on interest rate differentials. New important indicators are due to be released today, and depending on the results, dollar buying could be triggered again. Furthermore, with the weekend rebalancing flow also occurring, the market is in a situation where temporary fluctuations due to supply and demand factors are likely to affect the market.
The previous day, strong US economic indicators were in focus, and dollar buying prevailed as expectations of a rate cut wavered, pushing the Australian dollar down against the US dollar. New important indicators are due to be released today, and expectations for interest rate differentials are likely to change depending on the results, so caution is required. In addition, with the weekend rebalancing flow also occurring, short-term fluctuations in supply and demand could affect the market.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
There were no surprises in the US data, and overall the news was limited. There was a lack of direction throughout the day, and the market closed in a range-bound movement with a strong correction in the final minutes.
The August personal consumption expenditure figures released in the US came in as expected, so there were no surprises in the market. There was little new news from the Eurozone, and the day was generally marked by a correction.
The August personal consumption expenditure figures released in the US were as expected and not a big surprise, so the impact on the market was limited. However, there was some buying of the pound during New York time, and the day ended with a slight rise with some adjustments.
In the US, August personal consumption expenditures came in as expected, limiting the impact on the market. During European trading hours, the market slightly surpassed the previous day's low, but after entering New York, buying led to a reversal. As a result, the market remained within a narrow range throughout the day, with a strong correction in sight.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day, expectations of a rate cut wavered following strong economic indicators from the United States, leading to dollar buying.
Today, with the release of important indicators and weekend rebalancing taking place, it is important to pay close attention to fluctuations in supply and demand.
Overall, the market is likely to continue to battle in the high price range, and the direction is likely to change depending on new information.
Expected range
We expect the price to move around the 147.80 to 149.80 range.
The upper limit is likely to be around 150.00.
The focus will be on whether the downside will fall below around 147.50.
tactics
The basic policy is to focus on buying on dips.
However, taking into account the risk of a short-term decline, we will limit our buying to the lower end of the range.
Consider selling on a rebound only after confirming that momentum at high prices has stalled.
trigger
If it clearly breaks above 150.00, buying pressure is likely to increase.
If it breaks below 147.50, the correction is likely to accelerate.
The short-term triggers will be the outcome of US economic data and the weekend rebalancing trend.
Nullification Conditions
A clear break below 147.00 would negate the buying on dips strategy.
If the price does not continue to hover in the high range and falls below 148.00, the scenario will be revised.
The assumption also breaks down if liquidity declines rapidly due to changes in supply and demand factors.
Risk Event
An indicator related to personal consumption expenditures in the United States.
Interest rate outlook revised based on comments from Federal Reserve officials.
End of month and weekend rebalancing flow.
Position Management
Start with half the usual lot size and consider increasing or decreasing it after confirming the direction.
Profit taking will be adjusted around 149.80, or after checking the momentum after breaking through 150.00.
Set a stop loss if the price falls below 147.40 to avoid a prolonged trade.
Checklist
Check whether it can break above 150.00.
Understand changes in supply and demand due to weekend rebalancing.
Keep an eye on revisions to interest rate outlooks following the release of US data.
Market Summary
The previous day, US economic indicators exceeded expectations, leading to dollar buying and pushing down the euro.
With new important data coming out today, the market is sensitive to changes in interest rate differential outlooks.
Weekend rebalancing also has an impact on flows, so caution is needed regarding short-term fluctuations.
Expected range
Expected to move around 1.1650-1.1750
On the downside, the area around 1.1650 is likely to be seen as support.
The focus will be on whether the upside will surpass 1.1750 and test the resistance around 1.1780.
tactics
The basic policy is to sell on returns.
When a market rebounds strongly, avoid following suit and look for turning points.
Use short-term upside as room to adjust positions
trigger
A clear break above 1.1780 will temporarily curb pullback selling strategies
If it breaks below 1.1650, downward momentum is likely to strengthen.
The results of US indicators and European trading hours will be short-term turning points
Nullification Conditions
If the price settles above 1.1800, the sell-on-return strategy will be negated.
If the price fails to maintain 1.1700 and settles below it, we need to reassess the possibility of a further decline.
The scenario will also be invalid if there is a sudden change in supply and demand factors.
Risk Event
US personal consumption expenditures statistics
European consumer confidence and PMI flash figures
Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing
Position Management
Position size should be adjusted carefully, with a maximum limit of half of normal size.
Take profits around 1.1660 to secure short-term downside
Set stop loss above 1.1785 and thoroughly manage risk
Checklist
Check whether 1.1650 can be broken below
Keep an eye on whether there will be a move above 1.1780
Understand changes in interest rate differential outlook after US index releases
Market Summary
The previous day, strong US economic data was in focus, and dollar buying prevailed, pushing the pound down.
Expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated, and dollar preference strengthened due to the interest rate differential.
Today, new important indicators and a weekend rebalancing coincide, making it necessary to be cautious of short-term fluctuations.
Expected range
Expected to move around 1.3320-1.3420
The upside is likely to be around 1.3450
On the downside, a break below 1.3300 would be a test level to accelerate the correction.
tactics
The basic principle is to focus on selling on rebounds
A short-term rebound will be countered by confirming stalling at higher resistance levels
Buying on dips will be limited to once support on the downside becomes clear.
trigger
If there is a clear break above 1.3450, selling strategies should be curbed
If it breaks below 1.3300, downward pressure is likely to intensify.
US indicators and European time flows will determine the short-term direction of the day.
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks through 1.3480 and settles there, the sell-on-rebound strategy will be negated.
If 1.3320 cannot be maintained stably, the expected range will need to be revised.
The scenario would also collapse if the dollar were to be overbought due to a sudden risk-averse inflow.
Risk Event
US personal consumption expenditures statistics
UK economic indicators and comments from central bank officials
Supply and demand fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing
Position Management
Start with half the standard lot size and operate carefully
Take profits around 1.3330 as a guideline to ensure small but secure profits
Set stop loss above 1.3460 to avoid risk escalation
Checklist
Check if there is an attempt to break below 1.3300
Keep an eye on whether or not the price will break through 1.3450
Understand changes in interest rate differential outlook after US index releases
Market Summary
The previous day, dollar buying prevailed on the back of strong US economic data, pushing the Australian dollar down.
As expectations of a rate cut faltered, interest rate differential-conscious movements intensified.
Today, a new important indicator and a weekend rebalancing have combined to create a situation where supply and demand factors can easily cause fluctuations.
Expected range
Expected to move around 0.6550 to 0.6650
The upper limit is likely to be around 0.6670
On the downside, a break below 0.6530 will test the acceleration of the correction.
tactics
The basic policy is to prioritize selling on rebounds.
During a rebound, check for stalls at high resistance levels and respond accordingly.
Consider buying on dips only after support is confirmed
trigger
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6670, it will be necessary to curb pullback selling tactics.
If it breaks below 0.6530, downward pressure is likely to intensify.
The results of US indexes and rebalancing flows will be the turning points of the day
Nullification Conditions
If it breaks through 0.6700 and settles there, the sell-off scenario will be negated.
If the price cannot maintain 0.6550 and breaks through it, the downside risk will increase, so we will need to adjust our tactics.
The scenario would also be invalid if liquidity were to decline rapidly.
Risk Event
US personal consumption expenditures statistics
Impact of Chinese economic indicators on resource prices
Flow fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing
Position Management
Start with half the standard lot size and consider increasing or decreasing it after confirming the direction.
Take profits around 0.6560 to secure short-term downside
Set stop loss above 0.6680 to avoid risk escalation
Checklist
Check for any moves to test the break below 0.6530
Keep an eye on whether it will break through 0.6670
Understand changes in interest rate differential outlook after US index releases
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
August U.S. personal consumption expenditures fell within the expected range, lacking any surprises. The market lacked direction during the day, and ultimately ended up trading within a small range.
summary
US consumer indicators showed strength, but the results were in line with market expectations, so reaction was limited
The dollar/yen exchange rate remained stable, hovering around the mid-149 yen range, as the impact was not enough to affect speculation about monetary policy.
Position adjustments prevailed ahead of the weekend, and overall price movements remained quiet.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the index started trading around 149.70 and attempted a small rise, but struggled to make any progress.
In the European market, the index temporarily rose to around 149.90, but the upper limit was confirmed.
During New York time, the price was pushed down to around 149.40, and finally closed at around 149.50.
Background/materials
US personal consumption expenditure results remained strong but were in line with market expectations, limiting the impact
Expectations for a rate cut in US monetary policy have receded somewhat, but this has not yet created a new sense of direction.
There were no notable economic indicators or policy statements from the Japanese side, and the only reaction was caution about currency intervention.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The area around 149.40 was seen as support and no break below it was observed.
The upside was held down by the psychological milestone of 150.00 and the price remained within a range.
In the short term, the yen is expected to continue trading in the mid-149 yen range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, 150.00 continues to be seen as resistance.
The 148.80-149.00 range is likely to function as a medium-term support band.
The direction is unclear and the trend remains stable, with no clear trend forming yet.
Impressions
Market participants did not react much to US indicators, and a wait-and-see attitude prevailed, with no active moves being made.
Although concerns about foreign exchange intervention supported the market, the upside remained heavy as it was linked to the trend of US interest rates.
Price movements are limited ahead of events at the start of the week, and there is a strong awareness that the market will wait for further developments.
Trading Impressions
There were small fluctuations up and down, but there was no clear direction and entry opportunities were limited.
There was room for small profit margins in short-term trading, but caution was required when carrying over positions.
Overall, I get the impression that the focus was on position adjustments over the weekend.
Checklist
Keep an eye on whether it will break through 150.00
Support around 149.40 confirmed to be maintained
Getting ready for major US indicators next week
Looking back
The August personal consumption expenditure figures released in the US were in line with expectations, resulting in a muted market reaction, and there was no notable news from the Eurozone either, resulting in a day of correction overall.
summary
U.S. data was generally within expectations and did not provide enough impetus for dollar buying.
A lack of economic news from the eurozone limited price action as investors waited for the next event.
As a result, the euro/dollar exchange rate remained stable within a range, hovering around 1.1700.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time started around 1.1670, with only small movements in the early stages.
In the European market, there was some movement to test 1.1700, but no significant growth was achieved.
During New York trading hours, the price fell to the 1.1660 range before recovering and closing around 1.1700.
Background/materials
U.S. August personal consumption expenditures were in line with expectations, providing market relief, but the impact was limited.
The revised US GDP figures were strong but within the range of prior expectations, and did not trigger any new dollar buying.
There were no new policy statements or major statistics from the eurozone, leaving markets lacking material to move the market.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.1660-1.1670 was seen as short-term support
1.1700 was a psychological turning point, and the price movement confirmed the weight of the upper limit.
During the day, the price continued to trade within a small range around this level.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The 1.1600 level is seen as a medium-term support zone.
The area around 1.1750 is likely to be seen as the next resistance level.
There is a lack of direction in the medium term, and the cross-shareholding trend continues.
Impressions
There was little reaction to the US indicators, and the overall market appeared to remain quiet.
A lack of Eurozone news limited trading opportunities and participants were less enthusiastic.
Markets are increasingly waiting for the next major US data and ECB announcements
Trading Impressions
There was a lack of clear direction, and the market was limited to short-term price fluctuations.
Trading focused on confirming support and resistance levels
The weekend was also a factor, making it a day marked by position adjustments.
Checklist
See if we can break above 1.1700
Keeping an eye on the 1.1660 support
Check your preparations for next week's key US data and ECB announcements
Looking back
The August US personal consumption expenditures were as expected, so the reaction was limited, but there was some buying of the pound during New York time, and the market closed with a slight increase.
summary
US indicators showed strength but remained within market expectations and did not pose any surprises
There was no notable news from the UK side, and uncertainty over monetary policy continued to weigh on the market.
Pound buying intensified during New York trading hours, ending trading at around 1.3400.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time started around 1.3340 and fluctuated slightly up and down
In the European market, there was a moment when the exchange rate fell to around 1.3330.
During New York trading hours, buying occurred and the price rebounded to around 1.3410, closing at around 1.3400.
Background/materials
US personal consumption expenditures were as expected, limiting the dollar's upward impact.
The upward revision of the US GDP figures supported the dollar, but the impact on the pound was limited
There was no new information from the UK regarding monetary policy or fiscal policy, and the market was closely watching developments in the US.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.3330 was seen as support and supported the lower end.
On the upside, the 1.3410-1.3420 range was seen as a resistance band.
During the day, it traded within a range of 1.3340 to 1.3410.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The area around 1.3300 is attracting attention as a medium-term support zone.
The area around 1.3450 is seen as the next potential resistance.
In the medium term, the market lacks direction and continues to move within a range.
Impressions
US indicators were as expected, leading to a wait-and-see mood across the market
The pound buying during New York time was largely a correction against the backdrop of a lull in the dollar.
Amid a lack of material, the market remains prepared for the next event
Trading Impressions
There was little movement in the early stages and it was not suitable for short-term trading.
There was room for short-term buying during the rebound during New York time
Overall, the market was weak and active trading was refrained due to the weekend.
Checklist
Support at 1.3330 confirmed
Keep an eye on the resistance breakout near 1.3420
Gearing up for next week's US data and BoE announcements
Looking back
The August US personal consumption expenditures were as expected, so the market reaction was limited. After slightly hitting the previous day's low during European trading hours, there was buying back during New York trading hours, and the market closed in a small range.
summary
No surprises in US data, limiting dollar buying
There were no new announcements from the Australian side, leaving the market lacking clues.
As a result, the day was one lacking in direction, with the price hovering around 0.6540.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price started around 0.6545 and moved within a narrow range.
In the European market, the price fell to around 0.6520, hitting a new low from the previous day.
During New York time, it reversed and recovered to the 0.6540 range.
Background/materials
US personal consumption expenditures were within expectations, minimizing market impact
While the revised US GDP figures were strong, they were already factored in and new momentum was limited.
On the Australian side, there was no notable news in terms of monetary policy or economic indicators, and a wait-and-see attitude was strong ahead of the RBA meeting.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
0.6520 acted as support and held up short-term downside
On the upside, resistance was found around 0.6550, and it was not possible to break through clearly.
In the short term, it has converged within a range of 0.6520 to 0.6550.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The 0.6500 level is seen as a medium-term support zone.
0.6600 is a mid-term resistance level that acts as a barrier to the upside.
In the medium term, the range trend will continue and the lack of direction is becoming clear.
Impressions
A lack of material on the Australian side focused market attention on US indicators, but the results were within expectations
The downward pressure during European trading hours was temporary, and the market regained stability overall as it was bought back during New York trading hours.
With the next RBA meeting and major US indexes coming up, the market continued to move in a corrective direction.
Trading Impressions
The price movement remained within a narrow range, making it unsuitable for following large trends.
The main movement was a narrow price range with short-term buying on dips and selling on rallies.
Due to the lack of material, the strategy of not taking a position and waiting for the next event was advantageous.
Checklist
Support at 0.6520 confirmed
Keep an eye on whether it will break through 0.6550
Get ready for the RBA meeting and key US data
FX Journal