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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | September IFO Business Confidence Index |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August New Home Sales [Annualized] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August New Home Sales [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected the most important indicators. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
While attention is focused on the trend in US long-term interest rates and expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, concerns about currency intervention remain, and the dollar/yen exchange rate has been lacking direction. The previous day, it remained in the high 147 yen to low 148 yen range, moving little in a narrow range throughout the day. The market appears to be waiting for news, with a strong focus on comments from US financial authorities and upcoming economic indicators. Attention will likely continue to be focused on whether the dollar can break above the mid-148 yen range or fall below the mid-147 yen range.
The previous day saw the market move in a very narrow range, lacking direction. In the US, inflation-related indicators and comments from financial authorities are attracting attention, while in the eurozone, concerns about an economic slowdown are likely to be a concern. As speculation continues to be focused on the pace of the ECB's interest rate cuts and the timing of a US interest rate cut, investors are increasingly waiting for economic indicators from the US and Europe.
The previous day saw only small movements within a very narrow range. Concerns about high UK inflation and economic slowdown, as well as mixed speculation over the timing of a US interest rate cut, led to a waiting period for further developments. In the UK, economic indicators such as PMIs have been weak, raising concerns about the economy. Meanwhile, in the US, inflation-related data and comments from Federal Reserve officials are attracting attention, potentially influencing the dollar's movements.
The previous day, the pair remained in a very narrow range, with no clear direction. While speculation over the timing of a US interest rate cut and comments from Federal Reserve officials were in focus for the AUD/USD pair, the outlook for the Australian economy and the RBA's policy stance remained key factors. Resource prices and trends in the Chinese economy are also likely to have an impact on the Australian dollar, leaving room for fluctuations depending on investor risk sentiment.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
The dollar continued to be bought on the back of rising US long-term interest rates, and US economic indicators exceeded expectations, further strengthening the buying. Overall, it was a day in which the US financial environment and indicator results had a major impact on the market direction.
The dollar continued to be bought on the back of rising US long-term interest rates, and US economic indicators that exceeded expectations further fueled dollar buying. The weak German business confidence index also prompted euro selling. Overall, the combination of weakness in the US financial environment and European indicators weighed on the euro on the day.
Dollar buying continued on the back of rising US long-term interest rates, and US economic indicators surpassing expectations led to further dollar buying. There was some buying back in the New York market, and there were even moments when the decline narrowed. Overall, it was a mixed day, with US interest rates and indicator results driving the market, but also with some looking for room for a recovery.
The Australian CPI, released during Tokyo trading hours, exceeded expectations, leading to buying and a temporary recovery to the 0.6620 range. However, during European trading hours, dollar buying became dominant due to rising US long-term interest rates, and the trend reversed. In the New York market, US economic indicators exceeded expectations, further strengthening dollar buying and pushing the Australian dollar down. As a result, the price updated both the previous day's high and low, making it a day at the mercy of various factors.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The dollar/yen exchange rate fluctuated slightly between the high 147 yen range and the low 148 yen range, with little sense of direction.
Although there was awareness of rising US long-term interest rates and expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, concerns about intervention kept prices from rising.
There is a strong mood of waiting for new information, with attention focused on comments from financial authorities and economic indicators.
Expected range
Keep an eye on the range around 147.50 to 148.60.
There is a possibility of temporary expansion in both the upper and lower ranges depending on the material.
Currently, the price is likely to continue fluctuating within a range.
tactics
Since it is difficult to get a sense of direction, the focus is on range rotation.
In the short term, combine buying back near support and taking profits at resistance.
It is important not to hold on to your position too long until a major trend emerges.
trigger
A clear break above 148.60 could be a test of the upside.
If it breaks below 147.50, we will be aware of further adjustments.
U.S. economic indicators and comments from financial authorities are likely to be factors in short-term fluctuations.
Nullification Conditions
If the range of 147.50-148.60 continues to hold, expectations of a breakout will recede.
If there is no significant movement after the event has passed, you will need to adjust your tactics.
Avoid making too strong assumptions about one direction, and respond flexibly, assuming the range will continue.
Risk Event
US economic indicators released (housing-related, PMI, etc.).
Changes in interest rate outlook due to comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Whether or not the Bank of Japan or the government have made any statements warning of intervention.
Position Management
In a range strategy, position size is kept small and trades are made in multiple steps.
Take profits frequently, aiming for around 0.20 to 0.30 yen.
Be sure to cut your losses only when the price clearly breaks through support or resistance levels.
Checklist
Confirm the correlation between US long-term interest rates and the dollar/yen exchange rate.
Follow the Bank of Japan's stance and intervention-related statements.
Understand the timing of major economic indicator releases and market reactions.
Market Summary
The euro/dollar exchange rate has been trading in a very narrow range between the high 1.18s and just before 1.19s.
Speculation continues to be focused on the pace of interest rate cuts by the ECB and the timing of interest rate cuts in the US
The market continued to lack direction as investors waited for economic indicators from the US and Europe.
Expected range
Expected range around 1.1780 to 1.1920
A clear break on either the upside or downside requires material.
In the short term, the reaction is likely to be within a range
tactics
Given the lack of directionality, a range rotation approach is appropriate.
Consider buying on dips near support and selling on rallies near resistance
Emphasize the stance of not pursuing positions too deeply until strong information emerges
trigger
If it clearly breaks above 1.1920, be mindful of testing the upside
If it breaks below 1.1780, beware of further adjustments
US inflation-related indicators and comments from Fed officials are short-term fluctuation factors
Nullification Conditions
If the range of 1.1780-1.1920 continues to hold, expectations of a breakout will recede.
If you still don't have a sense of direction after the event, you need to revise the scenario.
Avoid bias in one direction and respond flexibly based on the assumption that the price will remain within a range
Risk Event
Release of US inflation indicators and consumer confidence index
ECB Governing Council members' comments and implications for policy outlook
Concerns about a global economic slowdown and reports related to tariffs in the US and Europe
Position Management
Set position size moderately and distribute it over multiple times
Take profits frequently, aiming for around 0.0020-0.0030
Stop losses when there is a clear break above or below the range
Checklist
Check the release times of major economic indicators in the US and Europe
Understanding the tone of ECB and Fed officials' statements
See how the market values the 1.1780 and 1.1920 levels
Market Summary
The pound-dollar exchange rate has been moving in a narrow range between the mid-1.34 and low-1.35 ranges.
The UK is facing concerns about high inflation and economic slowdown
In the US, inflation-related data and comments from Federal Reserve officials are attracting attention, leaving the market lacking direction.
Expected range
Price movement expected to be around 1.3450-1.3550
New materials are needed to achieve clear direction in both directions
In the short term, the market is likely to remain in a range-bound state.
tactics
Given the lack of directionality, it is appropriate to take a range rotation approach.
Consider buying on dips near support and selling on rallies at resistance.
Don't hold positions for long until a major trend is formed
trigger
If it clearly breaks above 1.3550, be mindful of testing the upside
If it breaks below 1.3450, beware of a correction.
US inflation indicators and UK economic indicators are likely to be short-term triggers
Nullification Conditions
If the range between 1.3450 and 1.3550 continues for an extended period, expectations of a breakout will decline.
If there is limited movement after the index is released, revise the scenario.
Responding without relying on one-sided expectations, assuming the range will continue
Risk Event
US inflation-related indicators and employment statistics results
Release of economic data such as UK PMI
Market reaction to policy statements from Fed and Bank of England officials
Position Management
Keep position size small and spread it over multiple times
Take profits frequently, aiming for around 0.0020-0.0030
Stop losses only when the price clearly breaks out of the upper and lower limits of the range
Checklist
Check the release schedules for major economic indicators in the US and UK
Understanding the tone of BoE and Fed officials
See market reaction at 1.3450 and 1.3550 levels
Market Summary
The Australian dollar has been trading in a very narrow range around the 0.6600 level.
Speculation over when the US will cut interest rates and comments from Federal Reserve officials are key focus points
The Australian economy, the RBA's policy stance, resource prices, and trends in the Chinese economy are also important factors to consider.
Expected range
A range of around 0.6580 to 0.6630 is expected
Unless there is new information on either the upside or the downside, the breakout will be limited
In the short term, traffic is likely to remain within this range.
tactics
Considering the lack of directional sense, it is effective to focus on range rotation
Consider buying on dips near support and selling on rallies near resistance.
Prioritize short-term settlement until a major trend emerges
trigger
If it breaks above 0.6630, it will be a test of short-term upward movement
If it breaks below 0.6580, beware of further adjustments
US inflation figures and Australian economic data are likely to trigger fluctuations
Nullification Conditions
If the 0.6580-0.6630 range continues to hold, expectations of a breakout will recede.
If there is little movement after the index is released, you need to adjust your tactics.
Don't raise expectations too high for one direction, and continue to assume the range will continue.
Risk Event
Release of US inflation and employment data
Australia's major economic indicators, including CPI and PMI
Changes in China's economic trends and resource prices
Position Management
Keep position size small and respond in small increments
Set profit taking at around 0.0020 to 0.0030
Stop losses only when the price clearly breaks out of the upper and lower limits of the range
Checklist
Check the release times of major economic indicators from the US and Australia
Follow what Fed and RBA officials are saying
Understanding market reaction at the 0.6580 and 0.6630 levels
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Following the rise in US long-term interest rates and favorable results from US indicators, dollar buying prevailed, and the dollar rose to the high 148 yen range at one point, closing at a high level.
summary
During Tokyo hours, the price mainly fluctuated in the mid-147 yen range, with a lack of direction.
After European trading hours, dollar buying intensified on the back of rising U.S. interest rates and rising stock prices, and the dollar rose to the mid-148 yen range.
During New York time, the market was weighed down by sluggish US interest rates and was pushed back at times.
Today's price movements
In the Tokyo market, trading continued in a narrow range around 147.60.
During European trading hours, dollar buying intensified in line with rising US interest rates, and the dollar rose to around 148.50.
During New York time, there was a sell-off as interest rates hit a plateau, and at times the market was pushed down slightly from its highs.
Background/materials
The rise in the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was the main factor supporting the dollar/yen.
Indicators such as U.S. new home sales exceeded expectations, increasing dollar-buying pressure.
Due to the cautious stance of Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, expectations of a rate cut have somewhat subsided.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the upside, the 148.50 level was seen as resistance.
The lower end of the support band was 147.00 to 147.50, which led to buying support.
In the short term, trading tended to remain within a range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, a wide range has formed from the early 147 yen range to the mid-148 yen range.
The 200-day moving average is seen as support for the lower end, and the medium-term direction is unclear.
Unless there is a major breakthrough, fluctuations based on interest rate trends are likely to continue for the time being.
Impressions
It was a day in which comments regarding US monetary policy and fluctuations in interest rates were directly reflected in the dollar/yen exchange rate.
The combination of index results and interest rates influenced price movements, resulting in a typical information-driven development.
Stock prices and risk appetite also played a role in shaping the market's direction.
Trading Impressions
In short-term trading, there was a focus on a sell-off around 148.50, and profit-taking was seen.
Buying on dips from the high 147 yen range remained effective, and trading focused on staying within the range.
It was a situation where it was difficult to determine the direction, and there was a noticeable tendency to avoid taking excessive positions.
Checklist
Check the trends in US interest rates and bond markets.
Keep a close eye on future US economic indicators and statements by Fed officials.
Observe the reaction within the range of 147.00-148.50.
Looking back
Following the rise in US long-term interest rates and strong results from US indicators, dollar buying prevailed, pushing the euro down.
summary
Rising US interest rates supported the dollar, pushing the euro/dollar down from around 1.1820.
Germany's economic sentiment index came in weak, increasing selling pressure on the euro.
Better-than-expected U.S. economic indicators reinforced the dollar's strength, weighing on the euro.
Today's price movements
In the early stages, there were signs of testing the 1.1820 level.
During European trading hours, selling prevailed following the release of the economic sentiment index.
During New York time, the price fell below 1.1800 due to trends in US interest rates.
Background/materials
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose, and dollar buying continued.
Indicators such as U.S. new home sales exceeded expectations, boosting the dollar's strength.
Germany's IFO business climate index was weak, triggering selling of the euro.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The area around 1.1820 was seen as an upper resistance level.
The lower limit is expected to be around 1.1790 to 1.1800.
In the short term, the yen continued to move within a range linked to interest rate trends.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The inability to break above 1.1850 confirmed the strength of the upper end of the range.
The 1.1750 area is being watched as medium-term support.
The direction remains unclear, and interest rates and economic indicators continue to determine the trend.
Impressions
While the US financial environment shaped the overall market, weak European indicators also contributed.
It has been confirmed that the euro is likely to face increased selling pressure.
The market reacted sensitively to trends in US interest rates, resulting in a day of up and down movements.
Trading Impressions
This was a situation where a sell-off around 1.1820 was likely to be noticed.
The battle around 1.1800 saw short-term trading taking centre stage.
It was difficult to determine a major direction, and many trades prioritized taking profits.
Checklist
Check US interest rates and bond market movements.
Keep an eye on weak European economic indicators.
Observe the reaction within the 1.1790-1.1820 range.
Looking back
Dollar buying prevailed following a rise in US long-term interest rates and US indicators exceeding expectations, pushing down the pound, but there was some buying back in the New York market.
summary
The strength of the US financial environment was recognized, and dollar buying progressed from the early stages.
Combined with cautious views on the UK economy, the pound struggled to move higher.
There was some buying back during New York time, and trading ended with the decline narrowing somewhat.
Today's price movements
During London trading, the exchange rate gradually fell from around 1.3520 to around 1.3450.
The dollar continued to strengthen against the backdrop of rising US interest rates.
In the New York market, there were times when short-term buying reduced the decline.
Background/materials
A rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield triggered dollar buying.
U.S. economic data beat expectations, boosting the dollar's dominance.
Concerns about the UK's economic outlook also contributed to keeping the pound's upside in check.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The area around 1.3520 was seen as an upper resistance level.
The lower limit was set at around 1.3450, and trading became intense.
In the short term, the price remained within a range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The pair was unable to break above 1.3600, confirming once again the heavy upside potential.
The area around 1.3400 is seen as medium-term support.
The moving averages continued to converge, and the price continued to move without any sense of direction.
Impressions
US interest rates and index results were the leading factors in the market.
There was a lack of clear information on the British side, and the situation continued to be easily swayed by American factors.
It was a day with a lack of direction, with buying and selling pressure intersecting.
Trading Impressions
There was awareness of a sell-off around 1.3520, and short-term investors increased their closing of positions.
There was also buying on dips around 1.3450, confirming that the downside was firm.
In the short term, most of the trading was focused on profit taking and contrarian trading.
Checklist
Continue to monitor US interest rate trends and economic indicators.
Consider trading strategies based on the range of 1.3450-1.3520.
Keep a close eye on the impact of UK economic indicators and statements by key figures.
Looking back
The Australian dollar was bought due to the strong Australian CPI results, but dollar buying prevailed due to rising US interest rates and good results from US indicators, resulting in the dollar hitting both the previous day's high and low.
summary
During Tokyo trading, buying of the Australian dollar took the lead following Australian indicators.
During European trading hours, dollar buying intensified on the back of rising US long-term interest rates.
During New York trading hours, the Australian dollar was pushed down by an upturn in US indicators.
Today's price movements
It rose to the 0.6620 range during Tokyo time.
As European trading began, dollar buying prevailed and the market reversed course and fell.
During New York time, it was pushed down to around 0.6580 in response to US indicators.
Background/materials
Australian CPI came in better than expected, reducing expectations of a rate cut.
Rising US long-term interest rates supported dollar buying.
Economic indicators such as U.S. new home sales exceeded expectations, boosting demand for the dollar.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The area around 0.6620 was seen as resistance on the upside.
The lower limit was around 0.6575, and there was some short-term fighting.
The range from the previous day expanded both above and below, increasing volatility.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
0.6700 is seen as a medium-term resistance.
The support zone was around 0.6500, which was seen as confirmation of the firmness of the bottom.
The moving averages continue to converge, and the lack of direction continues.
Impressions
Strength in Australian indicators provided temporary support, but US factors ultimately took the lead.
Due to the dollar-led developments, the Australian dollar's recovery was likely to be limited throughout the day.
The market reacted strongly to US interest rates and US indicators, while Australian factors retreated relatively.
Trading Impressions
A sell-off around 0.6620 was anticipated in the short term.
There were also instances of bargain hunting around 0.6580.
Due to a lack of direction, short-term trading and profit-taking were prominent.
Checklist
Continue to monitor Australian economic data results
Keep a close eye on US interest rates and the dollar index
Watch for a reaction within the 0.6575-0.6620 range
FX Journal