Market Summary

After the big buys the day before, the market is lacking direction, and today, with the Bank of Japan meeting coming up, the market is taking a wait-and-see stance.

Expected range

Expected to move around 147.50 to 149.00

To break out either way, Bank of Japan policy or US indicators are needed.

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on range rotation

When the price tests the lower limit, consider the support around 147.50 as a potential buy on dips, and be aware of selling on rallies around 148.80-149.00.

trigger

A breakout above 149.20 is likely to trigger stop buys.

A break below 147.30 is expected, which could lead to increased short-term selling pressure

The Bank of Japan's policy announcements and Governor Kuroda's press conferences (assuming statements by key figures on the day) are likely to trigger fluctuations.

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly breaks above 150.00 and settles there, the range strategy will likely be invalidated.

If the price falls below 147.00 and the downward trend intensifies, a review is also necessary.

Risk Event

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting and Statement, References to ETFs and Asset Sales Policy

US economic indicator releases (employment-related, regional Fed indexes, etc.)

Changes in market risk perception due to statements by key figures from major countries

Position Management

Position size kept at about half of normal levels, preparing for the outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting

The target for taking profit is 20 to 40 pips, and the stop loss is set 10 to 20 pips outside the most recent high or low.

After the announcement, adjust positions flexibly in line with price movements to limit risk.

Checklist

Confirm support around 147.50 remains

Be aware of the resistance around 149.00

Be prepared for a change in tone in comments and statements after the BOJ meeting

Market Summary

The euro/dollar pair has been trading in a range since the previous day, when it fell slightly and remained directionless.

Expected range

Expected price movements to center around 1.1750 to 1.1850

On the downside, support is expected to be near 1.1750, while on the upside, resistance will be near 1.1850.

tactics

The basic strategy is to buy on dips, and entries are carefully considered while checking the support zone.

Taking into account weekend rebalancing factors, we will take flexible measures to prepare for short-term price movements.

trigger

If it breaks out above 1.1860, buying momentum is likely to strengthen.

A break below 1.1740 is likely to trigger short-term selling pressure

European and US timetables and statements by key figures are factors that affect the market.

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly falls below 1.1700, the dip buying strategy is likely to be negated.

Even if the price rises above 1.1900 and becomes stable, the range assumption will be disrupted and a review will be necessary.

Risk Event

Eurozone consumer confidence and business sentiment indicators released

Factors that influence the strength of the dollar, such as U.S. employment and regional economic indicators

Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing

Position Management

Set position sizes more conservatively than usual to prepare for sudden fluctuations

The target for taking profit is 20 to 40 pips, and the stop loss is set 10 to 20 pips outside the most recent high and low.

Considering the weekend, be cautious about carrying over positions

Checklist

See if support near 1.1750 holds

Keep an eye on whether the resistance around 1.1850 can be broken

Determine the flow impact of weekend rebalancing

Market Summary

Although the stock fell sharply the previous day, the level is likely to encourage bargain hunting, and in the short term, the focus is on confirming the bottom.

Expected range

Expected to move around 1.3500-1.3650

The lower limit is likely to be around 1.3500, and the upper limit is likely to be around 1.3650.

tactics

The basic policy is to prioritize buying on dips, but if the momentum of the recovery is slow, take profits frequently.

Considering fluctuations due to weekend factors, it is advisable to take measures with short-term price fluctuations in mind.

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above 1.3660, it is likely that buying will accelerate.

If it breaks below 1.3490, downward pressure will increase and confirmation of a break of support will be required.

Statements by important figures and the release of US indexes during European trading hours tend to trigger fluctuations

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly breaks below 1.3450 and the downward trend becomes established, the dip buying strategy will likely be negated.

Conversely, if the price continues to rise above 1.3700, the range strategy will need to be reconsidered.

Risk Event

Further coverage of Bank of England comments and monetary policy

UK inflation and business confidence data release

Dollar-led price movements driven by US economic indicators

Position Management

Keep position size to about half of normal size to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations

Set profit taking in stages, aiming for 20 to 40 pips, and place stop loss outside the most recent low and high prices.

Consider weekend rebalancing and be cautious with carried positions

Checklist

Confirm that support around 1.3500 remains

Keep an eye on whether the price can break through the resistance around 1.3650

Determine the flow impact of weekend rebalancing

Market Summary

Following the previous day's sharp decline, the market continues to search for lower prices, making it an environment in which buying on dips is feasible.

While the weakness of Australian employment statistics weighed on the market, the US remained cautious even after the interest rate cut, focusing on the dollar's strength.

Weekend-related flows are prone to short-term fluctuations, so be careful of volatility bias depending on the time of day.

Expected range

Expected to move around 0.6580 to 0.6680

On the downside, defensive buying is likely to be seen around 0.6600, while on the upside, selling is likely to occur on rebounds at 0.6660-0.6680.

To break out of the range, a break accompanied by new information or volume is needed.

tactics

The basic strategy is to buy on dips, and prioritize profit taking and rotation on shallow rebounds.

Split entry after confirming hesitation in the decline in the 0.6600-0.6620 range, size suppression before the indicator

When it is clear that the price is stalling, short-term selling on rallies should be used in combination, and one-sided trading should be avoided.

trigger

If the price breaks above 0.6680, it is likely that buying will accelerate.

If the price breaks below 0.6580, stop selling is likely to spread.

Entry into Europe and early New York trading, caution against increased trading volume around the release of US indexes

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly breaks below 0.6550 and the decline becomes established, we will withdraw the dip buying scenario.

If it rises above 0.6700 and settles there, we will reassess the range assumption and reassess the upward scenario.

If a single indicator produces a long shadow, it is considered a sign of a decline in the reliability of the signal and should be avoided.

Risk Event

Australia and China-related headlines, sudden changes in resource prices

Data that influences dollar demand, such as U.S. employment, housing, and regional Fed indexes

Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing and option cuts

Position Management

Position size is half of normal, and even smaller just before the event

Take profits in stages, aiming for 20-40 pips, and stop losses 10-20 pips outside the most recent high and low.

Be sure to place stop orders in preparation for sudden changes immediately after the announcement, and manage with the assumption that slippage will occur.

Checklist

Confirm that buying support continues around 0.6600

Check the strength of the selling pressure at 0.6660-0.6680

Avoid being caught up in the unidirectional bias of weekend flows

Looking back

Following the Bank of Japan's decision to keep the yen unchanged, buying of the yen took the lead, but dollar buying in Europe pushed the yen to a new high, before it stalled in New York.

summary

In the early stages, buying of the yen pushed it down to the low 147 yen range.

During European trading hours, the dollar was bought back and at one point tested the 148 yen level.

In New York, the market was unable to break through the upper limit and was pushed back again, resulting in a lack of direction.

Today's price movements

The high was around 148.28 and the low was around 147.19, with fluctuations of around 1 yen during the day.

The yen strengthened in the Tokyo market, while dollar buying intensified in Europe, before stalling in New York.

The closing price returned to the 147.90 range, close to the opening price, leaving the impression of a fluctuating market.

Background/materials

The Bank of Japan kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, but two board members notably called for an interest rate hike.

The market viewed the unchanged rate as somewhat dovish and temporarily leaned towards buying the yen.

There was also strong interest in U.S. interest rates and economic indicators, which helped support the dollar's strength.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The level around 147.20 acted as support, maintaining the most recent low.

The upper resistance level was around 148.20 to 148.30, and the price was unable to break through clearly.

During the day, prices moved within a range, with limited short-term direction.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The range of the high 146 yen to high 148 yen range is expected to continue, and a medium-term holding period is expected.

On the daily chart, the 20-day moving average is seen as support, making it difficult to determine the direction.

The battle at high prices that has continued since late August continues, and it appears that investors are waiting for further news.

Impressions

The market reaction immediately after the policy event was calm, with no major trends emerging.

The presence of dissenting votes raises the possibility of a future change in stance, but it did not result in an immediate change of direction.

The dollar/yen exchange rate continues to be held in a holding pattern, with an eye on the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States and policy outlook.

Trading Impressions

Although there were short-term ups and downs, the price movements were difficult and ultimately converged into a range.

Neither chasing highs nor digging lows continued, and there were many situations suitable for scalping.

Rather than aiming for a clear break, it seems that a contrarian strategy utilizing support and resistance worked.

Checklist

Will it be able to hold support around 147.20?

Is it possible to break above 148.30?

We will continue to pay attention to US interest rate trends and the Bank of Japan's policy stance.

Looking back

Selling was dominant in Europe, and the market slightly updated the previous day's low in New York, but the decline did not continue and the rebound was limited.

summary

In the early stages, selling of the euro took the lead, and the trend of a stronger dollar prevailed.

The price temporarily fell below the previous day's low, but the decline did not accelerate and stalled.

At the end of the day, the price returned to a range and showed no clear direction.

Today's price movements

The high was near 1.1790 and the low was around 1.1729.

Selling intensified in the European market, and downward pressure was felt.

During New York time, the price fell below the previous day's low, but then recovered and closed at the 1.1740 level.

Background/materials

Strong US economic data supported the dollar

In Europe, fiscal and political uncertainty weighed on the euro

Markets remain mindful of differences in policy stance between the Fed and ECB

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The area around 1.1730 acted as support on the downside.

Failed to break through the upper resistance around 1.1790

During the day, the price range was 60 to 70 pips, and trading was mainly in the range.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The range of 1.1700 to 1.1800 is being considered.

The price continues to move around the 20-day moving average, showing a lack of direction.

The market has not been able to surpass the highs seen since the rebound in August, and mid-term upward pressure remains.

Impressions

Both the selling during European trading hours and the test of lower prices during New York trading hours lacked momentum.

Movements in response to the material were limited and did not result in the formation of a major trend.

The euro/dollar pair remains in a strong cross-holding pattern.

Trading Impressions

The trend of trying to hit the previous day's low did not continue, and the price range was limited.

The focus was on small profit margins by going against the trend.

It seems that short-term price fluctuations worked more effectively than waiting for a breakout

Checklist

Will the 1.1730 support hold?

Will the resistance above 1.1790 be broken?

Continued focus on US interest rate trends and ECB policy outlook

Looking back

Selling came in from Europe, and the price hit a new low from the previous day, with selling prevailing until the latter half of NY.

summary

Concerns about the UK's expanding fiscal deficit and persistently high inflation led to selling of the pound.

The decline accelerated during European trading hours, and the rebound in New York was limited.

The price was unable to recover until the end of the day and ended trading at a low level.

Today's price movements

The high was near 1.3559 and the low was around 1.3462.

Selling intensified in the European market, and downward pressure continued.

In New York, the dollar's strength was also a concern, and the market closed around 1.3470.

Background/materials

Increased UK government borrowing has heightened financial uncertainty

With inflation remaining high at 3.8%, there is a growing view that there is little room for interest rate cuts.

The market was aware of the Bank of England's caution regarding further interest rate cuts.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The 1.3460 level was temporarily seen as support on the downside.

The upside was limited around 1.3550 and the price failed to break through.

Downward bias prevailed during the day

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

It is moving in the range of 1.3450 to 1.3600.

The stock is below the 50-day moving average and is still weighed down on the upside in the medium term.

The adjustment phase that began at the August high continues

Impressions

The pound was prone to selling on the day, with factors specific to the UK in mind.

Combined with the strength of the dollar, the rebound was short and limited.

The market continued to test the lower limit of cross-shareholdings, leaving little sense of direction.

Trading Impressions

It was a day when selling aimed at breaking the previous day's low worked.

The strategy of selling on rebounds was dominant, and short-term buying did not increase.

Although there was a price range, the trend was not sustainable and it was important to determine when to take profits.

Checklist

Can the downside near 1.3460 be sustained?

Can the resistance above 1.3550 be broken?

Focus on UK fiscal trends and changes in BoE policy stance

Looking back

During Tokyo hours, the price fell below the previous day's low and recovered temporarily in Europe, but selling prevailed again in New York, closing at a new low.

summary

Weak Australian employment data and concerns about the Chinese economy weighed on the market.

There was a small buying spree during European trading hours, but it was not enough to change the trend.

In New York, the dollar remained firm and selling remained dominant until the end of the day.

Today's price movements

The high was around 0.6621 and the low was near 0.6585.

During Tokyo time, the price fell below the previous day's low and tested the lower limit.

The price closed around 0.6590 in the final minutes, falling on a daily basis.

Background/materials

Australian employment figures fall short of expectations, weighing on the Australian dollar

US interest rate outlook supports dollar, weakening Australian dollar relatively

Concerns about slowing Chinese demand weighed on the resource-exporting Australian currency

Technical Memo (Short Term)

0.6580-0.6590 was seen as short-term support.

The resistance around 0.6620 acted as a barrier to the upside, limiting the rebound.

Downward pressure continued in the short term

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The range of 0.6550 to 0.6650 is being considered.

The price fell below the 20-day moving average, continuing its correction trend.

The price has not been able to surpass the highs it reached since its rebound in July, and the upward pressure is noticeable.

Impressions

The Australian dollar remained vulnerable to selling due to a straightforward reaction to the information.

There was a temporary buyback, but it was not sustainable.

The Australian dollar was particularly weak on the day, supported by the US dollar.

Trading Impressions

The market was in a position where moves aimed at breaking the previous day's low were likely to work.

The strategy of selling on rallies was dominant, and short-term buying had limited profit margins.

Intraday volatility was not large, making short-term contrarian trading difficult.

Checklist

Will the lower level around 0.6580 hold?

Can it break through the resistance above 0.6620?

Focus on Australian economic indicators and the impact of China-related developments