Market Summary

The price movement following the previous day's FOMC meeting has run its course, and the Fed's post-rate cut guidance and the wait-and-see situation ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting mean that the market will continue to move in a range.

Expected range

Expected range is around 146.20 to 147.80

The downside is likely to be the level that updated the August low, while the upper 147 yen range is expected to be a resistance zone.

tactics

The basic policy is to rotate within a range while lacking a sense of direction.

Respond flexibly by combining buying on dips when prices approach the bottom and selling on rallies when prices rise

trigger

If it clearly breaks above 147.80, it will be a time to consider a test of the upward direction.

A break below 146.20 could strengthen the downward bias

US economic indicators and trends in US long-term interest rates will also be watched as short-term triggers.

Nullification Conditions

If the price falls below 146.20 and the decline accelerates, the range assumption will be rejected.

Conversely, if it clearly exceeds 148.00, it will be judged as breaking through the upper resistance zone.

Risk Event

Bank of Japan policy interest rate announcement and Governor's press conference

US economic indicators (initial unemployment claims, housing data, etc.)

Fluctuations in US long-term interest rates and stock markets

Position Management

Keep position size at about half of normal size to prepare for event risk

Prioritize small profit taking of around 20-30 pips, and focus on ensuring profits within the range.

Set stop loss levels outside the expected range to thoroughly limit risk

Checklist

See if support near 146.20 holds

Keep an eye on whether the resistance zone around 147.80 can be broken.

Assessing the impact of the Bank of Japan meeting and US interest rate movements on market sentiment

Market Summary

The euro/dollar exchange rate rose temporarily after the FOMC meeting the previous day, but then fell back due to dollar buying, and the market entered a correction phase from its high range.

Expected range

Expected range is around 1.1760-1.1875

Support on the downside is expected to be near 1.1760, while resistance on the upside is expected to be near 1.1875-1.1900.

tactics

In the short term, use buying on dips and selling on rallies based on range rotation

Keep your positions light to prepare for unstable price movements due to the passing of the event

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above 1.1900, be aware that the upward test may accelerate.

If the price breaks below 1.1760, the correction will intensify and selling pressure will increase.

US economic indicators and eurozone data will determine short-term direction

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to fall below 1.1760, the range assumption will be denied.

Conversely, if the price clearly breaks through 1.1900, the correction phase will be deemed to be over.

Risk Event

Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Business Sentiment Index

US initial unemployment claims and housing data

Comments and guidance changes from major central bank officials

Position Management

Keep position size to about half of the standard to prepare for event risk

Secure profits in small increments, aiming for around 20 to 30 pips

Stop loss is clearly set based on a level outside the expected range.

Checklist

See if the 1.1760 support holds

Keep an eye on whether the resistance zone between 1.1875 and 1.1900 can be broken

Determine the impact of US and European data releases on the dollar and euro

Market Summary

The dollar selling following the FOMC meeting has come to an end, and the pound is lacking direction as the post-rate cut guidance provides support for the dollar.

Expected range

Expected range is around 1.3580-1.3680

Support on the downside is near 1.3580, while resistance on the upside is near 1.3660-1.3680.

tactics

In the short term, we will base our strategy on range rotation, mixing buying on dips and selling on rallies.

Considering event risk, keep position size small

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above 1.3680, a test of the upside will be considered.

A break below 1.3580 could signal a stronger correction

The BoE's policy rate announcement and statement will determine the short-term direction

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to fall below 1.3580, the range assumption will be negated.

Conversely, if the price breaks through 1.3700, it will be considered an end to the short-term correction.

Risk Event

Bank of England policy interest rate announcement and Governor's remarks

U.S. economic indicators (such as initial unemployment claims and housing data)

Interest rate differentials and stock market trends affect market sentiment

Position Management

Keep positions to about half of normal levels to prepare for sudden price movements

Focus on small profits of around 20 to 30 pips to ensure profits

Set stop losses clearly outside the expected range to limit risk

Checklist

See if support near 1.3580 holds

Keep an eye on whether the resistance zone at 1.3660-1.3680 can be broken

Assessing market reaction and US interest rate trends after the BoE announcement

Market Summary

The dollar selling following the FOMC interest rate cut announcement has come to an end, and the Australian dollar's rise has been curbed by buying back, causing it to fall back from its highs.

Expected range

Expected range is around 0.6630 to 0.6700

Support is expected around 0.6630 on the downside, while resistance is expected around 0.6700 on the upside.

tactics

In the short term, we will flexibly combine buying on dips and selling on rallies, based on range rotation.

Considering the bearish candlesticks at the high end, be cautious on the upside and focus on targeting a rebound at the downside.

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above 0.6700, buying pressure will prevail.

If it breaks below 0.6630, the correction will intensify and downward pressure may increase.

Australian employment data and US economic indicators will determine short-term direction

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to fall below 0.6630, the range assumption will be denied.

Conversely, if it settles above 0.6720, the correction will be deemed to be over.

Risk Event

Australian employment statistics and consumption-related indicators

US initial unemployment claims and housing data

Federal Reserve comments and sudden changes in market sentiment

Position Management

Keep position size to about half of normal size to prepare for event risk

Take profits in small increments, aiming for around 20-30 pips, and steadily accumulate profits.

Set stop loss outside the expected range to clearly limit risk

Checklist

See if the 0.6630 support holds

Keep an eye on whether the resistance band between 0.6700 and 0.6720 can be broken.

Determine the impact of Australian indexes and US interest rate movements on the market

Looking back

Even after the US interest rate cut, a cautious stance was maintained, and the yen continued to be sold on the back of weak Japanese indicators, rising to the 148 yen range in New York.

summary

During the day, the exchange rate continued to fluctuate in the low 147 yen range, but as New York time approached, dollar buying intensified and the exchange rate briefly rose to the 148 yen range.

After that, the upward trend subsided and trading ended with the price fluctuating around the high range.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time started with a small range around 147 yen.

In the European market, the yen fluctuated around 147.20 yen, with little sense of direction.

As New York time began, dollar buying became dominant and the dollar rose to around 148.20 yen.

Background/materials

Although the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, its stance since then has been perceived as cautious.

Economic indicators such as Japanese machinery orders were weak, leading to a shift in investment sentiment towards selling the yen.

The dollar's overall steady movement against major currencies also supported the dollar/yen exchange rate.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The 147.00 yen level was seen as support, which was the reason for the decline stopping.

On the upside, the 147.80 to 148.20 yen range acted as a resistance band.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

Medium-term support is located around 146.50 yen, and if it does not break below that level, the firmness of the lower end will likely be noticed.

If it can clearly surpass the 148 yen level, the 148.50 yen level will be seen as the next benchmark.

Impressions

The difference in monetary policy stance between the United States and Japan continues to be the main factor driving the market.

There may be times of adjustment depending on the data from the United States, but for the time being, movements based on the policy gap are likely to continue.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, buying was dominant with the price at a low of around 147 yen.

On the other hand, there was a lot of profit-taking selling in the 148 yen range, confirming the heavy upside.

Although there was a price fluctuation, it seems that the trade was limited to a battle between the upper and lower limits of the range.

Checklist

Confirm that support remains around 147.00 yen.

Keep an eye on whether the price can break through the upper resistance level around 148.20 yen.

Be prepared for sudden fluctuations due to US indicators and comments from the Bank of Japan.

Looking back

Euro buying was dominant during European trading hours, but the dollar strengthened during New York trading hours, resulting in a slight decline near 1.1789.

summary

The price fluctuated in the low 1.18 range in the early stages, but the upside was limited and the buying trend in Europe did not last long.

As New York time approached, dollar buying intensified, and there were times when the dollar was pushed back to around 1.1750.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time was just around 1:18, with little movement.

During European trading hours, euro buying took the lead, reaching 1.1849.

During New York trading, the dollar fell to 1.1751 due to dollar buying, but closed at around 1.1789.

Background/materials

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but its subsequent cautious stance helped support the dollar.

Some US economic indicators beat expectations, sparking dollar buying

In Europe, inflation slowed and business sentiment improved, but the impact on monetary policy was limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The level around 1.1790 acted as support, and the decline stopped at the end of the day.

The area around 1.1850 is seen as a benchmark for the upper limit.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

A clear break below 1.1740 could lead to stronger correction pressures

If it exceeds the 1.1900 level, it will be easy to notice that the upward trend is strengthening again.

Impressions

Differences in policy stance between the US and Europe continue to influence the direction of the exchange rate

The environment remains difficult for trends to form due to a mix of strengths and weaknesses in the market.

Trading Impressions

The strategy of chasing buying during European trading hours was easily pushed down by dollar buying during New York trading hours.

While short-term selling opportunities were identified, there was also buying activity at support levels.

Overall, trading aimed at trading within the range was effective.

Checklist

Confirmation of support near 1.1790

Be aware of the resistance around 1.1850

Be prepared for sudden fluctuations due to US economic indicators and statements by important figures

Looking back

During European trading hours, the exchange rate showed signs of firming, but dollar buying intensified during New York trading hours, and the exchange rate fell to around 1.3555 by the end of the day.

summary

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold, but the impact was limited

The announcement of a slowdown in quantitative austerity was viewed with limited interest, and the dollar-led movement was the main driver overall.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the exchange rate remained small, around 1.3620.

During European trading hours, the price rose to around 1.3660 in line with euro buying, but the upside was limited.

During New York trading, dollar buying intensified on the back of strong US economic indicators, pushing the dollar down to the 1.3530 level.

Background/materials

The Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, in line with market expectations

Decided to slow the annual scale of quantitative austerity from £100 billion to £70 billion

In the US, data remained firm, strengthening the dollar buying trend.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

1.3530-1.3540 acted as support

On the upside, the resistance zone around 1.3660 held back the rise after European trading hours.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

If a break below 1.3500 becomes a concern, medium-term adjustment pressures are likely to intensify.

A move above 1.3700 will reaffirm the continuation of the uptrend

Impressions

The UK policy change lacked direction, and US factors were the driving force behind the market.

Differences in inflation and growth outlooks between the US and UK have become apparent, reflected in differences in currency trends.

Trading Impressions

The rise during European trading hours was easily perceived as an opportunity to sell on the rebound.

During New York trading hours, dollar buying was strong, and buying aimed at dips was unlikely to pay off.

In the short term, selling from the upper end of the range became dominant.

Checklist

Confirm that support around 1.3530 remains

Be aware of the resistance around 1.3660

Prepare for fluctuations due to differences in policy stances between the UK and the US

Looking back

The Australian dollar started weakly on the back of weak employment data, and although it recovered briefly in Europe, it closed lower due to dollar buying in New York.

summary

Australia's employment data unexpectedly falls, highlighting weakness in the labour market

In the US, a cautious stance was shown even after the interest rate cut, and dollar-buying prevailed.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the price attempted to break below 0.6650 following the release of statistics.

During European trading hours, buying occurred and the price recovered to around 0.6660.

During New York trading, dollar buying progressed on the back of strong US indexes, pushing the dollar down to 0.6607.

Background/materials

Australia's August employment figures showed an unexpected fall of 5,400 jobs, with full-time employment also falling sharply

The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, but a decline in labor force participation reinforced the weakness.

In the United States, even after the interest rate cut, the nature of the "risk management" was emphasized, and a cautious stance was shown toward further easing.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The area around 0.6600 to 0.6610 was considered support.

On the upside, the resistance zone around 0.6660 prevented the price from recovering during European trading hours.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

If it clearly breaks below 0.6580, downward pressure on the price will be felt.

A move above 0.6700 will confirm a rebound trend.

Impressions

Weak employment data kept the Australian dollar from rising, but the US dollar's decline intensified as a result of dollar buying.

In addition to the stance of policymakers, short-term fluctuations in supply and demand are influencing the direction of the market.

Trading Impressions

The rebound during European trading hours was perceived as a selling opportunity, and in the short term, selling on the rebound was dominant.

During New York time, dollar buying was strong, and dip-buying activity was limited.

There was some buying back near support, confirming the firmness of the lower end.

Checklist

See if support around 0.6600 holds

Be aware of sell-off pressure around 0.6660

Prepare for the risk of fluctuations associated with the release of economic indicators from Australia and the United States.