Market Summary

With the first day of the FOMC meeting and US retail sales figures approaching, the market is likely to be conscious of small fluctuations in US interest rates.

With the Bank of Japan meeting coming up later this week, the focus is on position adjustments ahead of the event

Tokyo expects liquidity to normalize, with focus on flows in Europe and New York

Expected range

Base scenario: around 147.00–149.00

The market is prone to pullback selling around 147.90-149.00.

Below, the strength of the pullback around 147.00–146.50 is confirmed.

tactics

Based on the range rotation, thinly distribute the bait while checking the reaction in the upper and lower bands.

Before the event, be sure to limit size and take early profits

Breaking is limited to following after checking the finished shape

trigger

The breakout will be a consolidation above 147.90 and a test of 149.00, followed by a short-term follow-up

If the price breaks below 147.00, be wary of a move towards 146.50

The time slots are European arrivals, early New York trading, and US retail headlines at 9:30 PM.

Nullification Conditions

If the price remains above 149.00 and remains in the high range, withdraw the assumption of a pullback sell

If the price remains below 146.50 throughout the day, we will withdraw our assumption of buying on dips.

If the price continues to stay outside the expected range due to the event-related fluctuations, move to a wait-and-see approach.

Risk Event

US retail sales results and initial interest rate movements

FOMC first day remarks and news headlines

Reports on Bank of Japan meeting-related observations and operational policies

Position Management

The maximum size is less than half of the normal size, and the size before the index is even lighter.

Consider taking profits in stages at 147.80-148.20 on the upper side and 147.10-146.80 on the lower side

Stop loss will be executed mechanically when the price exceeds 149.10 or falls below 146.40.

Checklist

Have you organized the timing and expected reaction path of US retailers?

Have you grasped the changes in the order book and volume between 147.00 and 147.90?

Did you update your positions and risk tolerance before and after the event?

Market Summary

Today is the first day of the FOMC meeting and the August US retail sales report, so the market is waiting for events.

US interest rates are fluctuating little, and the dollar's direction is limited, making it easier for the euro to support its decline.

Expected range

Baseline scenario: 1.1700–1.1820

During expansion, fluctuations up to 1.1680–1.1850 are allowed.

tactics

Basically, range rotation is used

When approaching resistance, sell on the rebound. When approaching support, buy on the dip in small, diversified lots.

Before the event, strictly limit size and take profits in stages

trigger

A breakout will confirm the upside potential by consolidating above 1.1785 and breaking above 1.1820.

The downside is below 1.1700 and 1.1680, so be careful of the spread of selling pressure

The time slots are European market entry, US retail market at 21:30, and the initial interest rate movements in early NY.

Nullification Conditions

If it continues to stagnate above 1.1820, the assumption of a pullback sell is invalid

If the price clearly breaks below 1.1700 and hits a new low on the daily chart, the assumption of buying on dips is invalid.

Risk Event

U.S. August Retail Sales Results and Related Headlines

Changes in sentiment due to news reports and key figures' comments on the first day of the FOMC

Position Management

The size is limited to half of the normal size, and the size before the index is even lighter.

Take profits in stages at 1.1770–1.1800 and 1.1710–1.1730

Stop loss will be executed mechanically when the price exceeds 1.1825 or falls below 1.1680.

Checklist

Have you checked whether the price will break above last week's high of around 1.1785 and what the trading pattern will be?

Will the 1.1700–1.1680 support zone hold?

Have you sorted out the initial movement of US retail and interest rates at 21:30?

Market Summary

Today is the first day of the FOMC meeting and the US retail market, and with US interest rates fluctuating little, the dollar is expected to have little direction.

With limited UK news, the market is likely to be led by pre-MPC flows, and the focus will be on where the upper limit will be.

Pay attention to short-term position adjustments as liquidity recovers in London and early New York

Expected range

The basic assumption is that the price will fluctuate between 1.3520 and 1.3600.

During expansion, fluctuations up to around 1.3500–1.3635 are allowed.

Depending on the time of day, the market is prone to repeated upside testing and pullback formation.

tactics

Based on range rotation, sell on pullback when approaching resistance, buy on dips when approaching support, and distribute small amounts

Avoid chasing high prices and be sure to wait until the reaction has been confirmed before entering

Before the event, limit the size and take profits shallowly.

trigger

If it breaks out above 1.3600, it will settle above 1.3600 and test 1.3615-1.3635 to check for continuity of buying.

If the price breaks below 1.3520, we will check whether there is a reaction to 1.3500 and whether there is a run.

The time is the London opening, US retail headlines at 21:30 and the New York opening interest rate

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to stagnate above 1.3635, the assumption of a pullback sell is invalid.

If the price clearly breaks below 1.3500 and remains stuck there, the assumption of buying on dips is invalid

If the price remains outside the expected range for a long time due to volatility, switch to wait-and-see.

Risk Event

US retail sales results and the impact of initial interest rate movements

Changes in sentiment due to news reports and key figures' comments on the first day of the FOMC

BoE headlines and sudden changes in gilt yields

Position Management

Open interest is limited to less than half of the usual amount, and held even lighter before the index.

Profit taking will be carried out in stages at 1.3580–1.3600 above and 1.3540–1.3525 below

Stop loss will be executed mechanically when the price exceeds 1.3610 or falls below 1.3490.

Checklist

Have you checked whether the price can break above 1.3600 and the pattern of the breakout?

Did you understand the reaction at the support of 1.3520 and 1.3500 and the thinness of the order?

Have you organized today's indicator times and the expected path of flow changes?

Market Summary

Today is the first day of the FOMC meeting and the US retail market, so fluctuations in US interest rates are likely to be limited as we await events.

There is little new information on the Australian side, so Chinese indicators and resource market conditions will be the main clues.

It is difficult to see clear resistance, so we prioritize checking where the upper limit will be.

Expected range

Our base case is around 0.6600–0.6700.

Above, we will check the strength of the retracement around 0.6660–0.6700.

Below, we will check for a reaction at the support band of 0.6600 → 0.6580

tactics

Based on range rotation, pick up small amounts at dips and take profits step by step at rallies

Break will follow only after checking the finished shape.

Before the event, we will limit the size and not pursue retention.

trigger

If it breaks out, we will confirm whether it can be followed by settling above 0.6700 and testing 0.6715.

If the price breaks below 0.6580, we should be wary of a further surge.

We will be focusing on the European initial movements, the US retail market at 9:30 PM, and the initial interest rate movements in the early hours of the NY market.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to stagnate above 0.6700, the assumption of a pullback sell will be invalidated.

If the price clearly breaks below 0.6580, the dip buying assumption will be invalid.

If the indicators change suddenly at the same time and remain outside the expected range for a long time, switch to a wait-and-see approach.

Risk Event

US retail sales surprise and the resulting reaction of US interest rates

Related headlines and key comments from the first day of the FOMC

High-frequency data from China and fluctuations in resource markets

Position Management

Open positions will be capped at half of normal levels, and even lower before the index.

Take profits will be taken in stages at 0.6660–0.6690 and 0.6610–0.6590

Stop loss will be executed automatically when the price exceeds 0.6715 or falls below 0.6575.

Checklist

Have you checked whether it can break above 0.6700 and the trading pattern?

Have you grasped the status of the support band of 0.6600–0.6580?

Have you organized today's index times and the initial interest rate movement route?

Looking back

Tokyo started the decline with yen buying dominating, while Europe waited for US indicators and waited to see what would happen. After that, expectations of a rate cut prevailed despite an upturn in retail prices, and dollar selling took over in New York.

summary

Although the indicators themselves are strong, expectations of falling interest rates remain strong, limiting the sustainability of dollar buying

Position adjustments before the event led to attempts to move up and down, but ultimately returned to the range.

Today's price movements

Tokyo is seeing a downward push towards breaking below 147.00, with a slow recovery

Europe is waiting for indicators and is moving slightly with little sense of direction

In New York, the dollar was temporarily bought immediately after the retail market's upswing, but the downward pressure resumed and the closing price did not converge to around 147.00.

Background/materials

While August US retail sales exceeded expectations, expectations of a rate cut prevail, leaving interest rates weighed down

Speculation ahead of the FOMC meeting and headline awaiting will influence the flow, with short-term investors playing a key role.

Yen-buying speculation continues ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting later this week

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Resistance is expected to rise from 147.50 to 148.00, and support is expected to rise from 147.00 to 146.50.

Momentum is neutral, and the recovery is likely to be gradually suppressed, leading to buying back at low prices.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The 146.50–148.50 range continues to consolidate and is waiting for a break.

The price range is narrowing slightly as it remains near the moving average.

Impressions

When it is difficult to determine the direction of fundamentals, focus on the quality of price movements and refrain from following them.

Until the event passes, frequently check the assumptions of the scenario and take a stance against abnormal price movements.

Trading Impressions

Basically, the size is controlled by rotating the range, profit taking is shallow, and stop loss is executed mechanically.

Consider only the initial steps in the event of a sudden change and avoid late contrarian moves.

Checklist

Have you confirmed the strength of the upper limit of 147.50 and the support of 147.00 in actual values?

Have you grasped the initial movement of US interest rates and the speed at which they are transmitted to the foreign exchange market?

Have you rechecked the event time and position size for the next business day?

Looking back

With the FOMC meeting approaching, euro buying took the lead in Europe, and US retail prices rose, but expectations of a rate cut prevailed and dollar buying did not continue, with the New York market closing at a high with the euro rising.

summary

Position adjustments before the event and small fluctuations in interest rates have led to a bias towards a stronger euro, but there is also concern about overheating.

The pullback was shallow and the market continued to test the upper limit, but the market showed a noticeable lack of growth towards the close.

Today's price movements

In the early European session, the market was pushed down by profit-taking after surpassing the previous day's high.

Immediately after the US retail market, dollar buying occurred, but it did not continue and the euro rose again.

In the final stages, the market converged to high levels, and the closing price remained firm.

Background/materials

US August retail sales exceeded expectations, but expectations of easing and lower interest rates this year prevail, leaving the dollar index heavy

The ECB is data-dependent and lacks additional material, leading to a flow-driven stance

Geopolitics and risk appetite from rising stock prices support the euro via cross-currency

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Resistance is near 1.1850-1.1880, and the focus will be on whether it can break above and consolidate

Support is at 1.1800 → 1.1780, confirming shallowness of pullback

Short-term momentum is on the rise, but beware of rising upper shadows

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The upper limit of the 1.1700–1.1900 range continues to be tested

While the price is moving above the moving averages and showing a solid trend, its ability to settle after the break is an issue.

Impressions

Even though indicators are strong, the dynamics of interest rates and expectations of easing make dollar buying difficult to expand.

The more a market is waiting for a headline, the more priority should be given to checking the quality of price movements and the trading volume.

Trading Impressions

The basic trend is a range rotation, with limited following on the upper side after confirming that the price is staying above 1.1850.

On the downside, we will watch the reaction to 1.1800 and prioritize taking asari, keeping the upper limit at half of the usual amount.

Checklist

Have you confirmed whether the price will break above 1.1850–1.1880 and the pattern of the breakout?

Did the strength of the pullback be verified at the support zone of 1.1800 → 1.1780?

Have you organized the time of the next event and the expected reaction path?

Looking back

With the FOMC and UK MPC meetings on the horizon, there was limited material, but buying dominated from Tokyo, with Europe surpassing the previous day's high, and even though US retail prices were up, expectations of a rate cut prevailed, leading to a high in New York.

summary

The dollar is struggling to move higher, while the pound remains shallow and continues to test its upper limit.

As the market closed, the growth slowed and the market was unable to settle into a range, while being aware of the overheating.

Position adjustments before events are the main cause of price movements, with short-term flows being the main driver.

Today's price movements

Tokyo bottomed out just before 1.36 and rose to the lower 1.36 range as it entered Europe

Immediately after the US retail market, dollar buying was not sustained, but remained in the 1.36 range.

In the second half of the New York session, the trend of chasing higher prices slowed and the market ended trading mainly in the low 1.36 range.

Background/materials

US August retail sales exceeded expectations, but expectations of easing this year prevail, limiting the upside of US interest rates

The UK is relatively supported by unchanged forecasts and speculation of a slowdown in the QT.

Risk appetite, including rising stock prices, supports the pound via crosses

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Resistance is 1.3600 → 1.3635 → 1.3680, support is 1.3550 → 1.3520

The decision to break out will be based on whether the price has settled above 1.3635 and whether the push is shallow.

Momentum is neutral and upward, but beware of an increase in the upper shadow

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The price will continue to consolidate in the 1.3470–1.3680 range, and the direction will likely depend on the event.

Maintaining 1.3550 is a divergence of the trend, and breaking it is a sign of reconfirming the lower limit of the range.

Impressions

Even with strong indicators, dollar buying is unlikely to continue, and price ranges are highly dependent on flows

When waiting for a breakthrough, avoid unreasonable break-following and focus on the quality of your reaction.

Trading Impressions

Basically, the size is reduced to less than half of the normal size by rotating the range.

Profit taking will be carried out in stages at the upper end of 1.3600–1.3630 and the lower end of 1.3560–1.3540

Stop losses will be mechanically executed above 1.3685 or below 1.3520

Checklist

Have you checked the actual value to see if the price will break above 1.3635 and the trading pattern?

Has the strength of the pullback been confirmed at the 1.3520–1.3550 support band?

Have you organized the next day's event times and the transmission channels for the initial movement of US interest rates?

Looking back

With the FOMC meeting approaching, US retail prices rose, but expectations of a rate cut prevailed and dollar buying did not continue, with the Australian dollar recovering in the final stages and slightly reaching the previous day's high.

summary

Amid a wait-and-see approach before the event, a slight decline in US interest rates provides support and the market continues to test the upside

There was little new material related to the resource market or China, and the market was dominated by flow-based trends.

The price range was limited, but the decline was notable for its shallowness.

Today's price movements

From Tokyo to Europe, prices are testing the upper end of the 0.66 range, but growth remains sluggish

Immediately after the US retail market, dollar buying did not continue, and activity returned to normal

Buybacks occurred in the latter half of NY, closing slightly above the previous day's high.

Background/materials

With the FOMC meeting just one day away, expectations of easing are in focus, and US interest rates remain heavy on the upside

US retail prices perform better than expected, but sentiment does not shift and risk appetite remains solid

Limited headlines on the Australian side, with interest rate differentials with the US and stock market trends the main clues

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The focus on the upside is on the reaction around 0.6700, and even if it breaks through, the focus will be on whether it can be established.

The strength of the downside is confirmed in the 0.6600 → 0.6580 range.

Short-term momentum is neutral and upward, so pay attention to the increase or decrease in the shadows.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The upper limit of the 0.6600–0.6700 range continues to be tested.

After breaking out of the range, we want to evaluate the price based on the shallowness of the recovery and the trading pattern.

Impressions

Despite strong indicators, the dynamics of interest rates and expectations of easing make dollar buying difficult to sustain.

When waiting for a headline, we want to prioritize price stagnation and volume imbalances.

Trading Impressions

The basic rule is to rotate the range and distribute the size moderately.

Take profits in small increments and execute stop losses mechanically at the predetermined level

Avoid chasing high prices and only participate after observing the strength of the pullback

Checklist

Have you confirmed the duration of the stay around 0.6700 and the quality of the breakout?

Did you check the depth of buybacks at the support band of 0.6600 → 0.6580?

Have you organized the next day's event times and the transmission channels for the initial movement of US interest rates?