Market Summary

USD/JPY continues to move within a range with no clear direction ahead of the US employment data release

Expected range

Expected range centered around 147.50 to 148.30

Large fluctuations are likely to occur after the release of indicators

tactics

Before the index, the basic strategy is to rotate in a range, and flexibly combine short-term buying on dips and selling on rallies.

After the announcement, be prepared to transition to trend following if a sense of direction emerges.

trigger

A break above 148.30 could lead to increased short-term buying

Selling pressure is likely to be felt if the price falls below 147.50

It is advisable to enter the market after checking the initial reaction after the employment statistics are released.

Nullification Conditions

If there is a clear breakout above 148.50, the sell-on-return strategy will be negated.

If the price falls significantly below 147.30, the dip buying strategy will be invalidated.

Risk Event

The biggest focus will be on the release of US employment statistics

The average hourly wage and labor participation rate, which will be announced at the same time, may also influence the direction of the dollar.

Position Management

Keep position sizes small before indicators to limit risk

The target for taking profits is around 20 to 30 pips, and stop losses are implemented at levels where support or resistance is clearly broken.

Pay attention to liquidity after the index is released and take slippage into account

Checklist

Will the range of 147.50 to 148.30 continue?

Will there be a clear direction after the employment statistics?

Will the average hourly wage results have an additional impact on the dollar/yen exchange rate?

Market Summary

EURUSD continues to move slowly and without direction as a wait-and-see attitude intensifies ahead of the release of US employment data

Expected range

Expected to trade in a range centered around 1.0800 to 1.0870

The market is likely to remain within a range before the release of the statistics.

tactics

Until the index is released, the basic strategy is to rotate within a range, and flexibly combine buying on dips and selling on rallies.

After the announcement, prepare a system to transition to trend following if a sense of direction emerges.

trigger

A clear break above 1.0870 could lead to buying in the near term

If it falls below 1.0800, selling pressure is likely to increase.

It is advisable to enter the market after checking the initial response to employment statistics.

Nullification Conditions

If there is a move to break through 1.0890, the sell-on-return strategy will be negated.

If the price breaks below 1.0780, the buying strategy will be invalidated.

Risk Event

The US employment statistics are the main focus

The average hourly wage and unemployment rate will also be announced at the same time, which could affect the dollar's value.

There is a lack of new information in Europe, so it is likely that the US will take the lead.

Position Management

Limit your position size and risk before the statistics are released

Set a target profit of 20 to 30 pips, and a stop loss at a level that clearly breaks through support or resistance.

Immediately after the announcement, consider the decrease in liquidity and slippage when timing your entry.

Checklist

Will the 1.0800-1.0870 range hold?

Which direction will the market head after the employment statistics are released?

Will average hourly wages and unemployment rates be additional factors?

Market Summary

GBP/USD continues to see limited price movement as investors take a wait-and-see stance ahead of the US employment data.

Expected range

Expected range centered around 1.2600-1.2680

There is a high possibility that large fluctuations will be suppressed until the statistics are released.

tactics

Before the employment statistics, the market will be based on range rotation, and will utilize short-term buying on dips and selling on rallies.

After the announcement, you need to be prepared to quickly switch to trend following once a sense of direction emerges.

trigger

A clear break above 1.2680 could lead to buying.

If it falls below 1.2600, selling pressure is likely to be felt.

The trend could go either way depending on the employment statistics figures.

Nullification Conditions

If the price rises above 1.2700, the sell-on-return strategy will be negated.

A dip below 1.2580 will invalidate the buying strategy.

Risk Event

The US employment data is the biggest focus

The average hourly wage and unemployment rate, which will be announced at the same time, may also affect the pound-dollar exchange rate.

There is a lack of new information in the UK, and price movements are likely to be driven by US indicators.

Position Management

Keep positions small before the indicator to limit risk

Take profits at 20 to 30 pips, and set stop losses at the level where the major support or resistance level is broken.

Be careful of widening spreads and sudden fluctuations immediately after an index is announced, and be cautious when entering.

Checklist

Will the 1.2600-1.2680 range hold?

Will there be a clear direction after the employment statistics are released?

Will average hourly wages and unemployment rates provide additional impetus?

Market Summary

The previous day saw a gradual decline due to the absence of bargain hunting, and the weakness of upward momentum is being noticed.

With the US employment statistics due to be released today, a wait-and-see attitude is prevalent and it is difficult to determine the direction of the market.

Liquidity tends to be concentrated in the initial stages after the announcement, so caution is needed to avoid biased positions beforehand.

Expected range

Expected to move in a range of around 0.6640 to 0.6720

Due to awaiting events, the price is expected to fluctuate around 0.6660 to 0.6700 during European hours.

tactics

Before the index, flexibly switch between short-term buying on dips and selling on rallies based on range rotation.

After the announcement, follow the trend in the direction of the breakout and close promptly if there are signs of a reversal.

Avoid chasing high prices and selling low prices, and prioritize checking reactions at key points

trigger

A break above 0.6720 has led to increased buying, with room for a test of the 0.6750 level.

Selling pressure will intensify as the price breaks below 0.6640, and the downside will be confirmed around 0.6610.

Surprises in early New York employment statistics and average hourly wages will determine the direction

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly exceeds 0.6750 and settles above it, the assumption of a pullback sell will collapse.

On the downside, if the price clearly breaks below 0.6610, the buying scenario will recede.

When a fake break occurs immediately after the indicator, withdraw temporarily at the first high and low recovery.

Risk Event

US employment statistics and average hourly wage results

Sudden changes in US interest rates and a risk-on/risk-off shift in the stock market

Changes in Australian dollar sensitivity to fluctuations in China-related indicators and commodity prices

Position Management

Before the index, the lot size was reduced to less than half of the normal amount, and the spread was expected to widen.

Take profit is set at 20-30 pips and step settlement is adopted, and stop loss is set at the nearest milestone.

Immediately after the announcement, delay your entry by a few minutes to reduce the risk of slippage and sudden reversals.

Checklist

Execution signs and order depth above and below the range of 0.6640 and 0.6720

The direction of surprises in employment statistics and average hourly wages and their follow-up in U.S. interest rates

Are the high and low prices continuing to be updated on the 5-minute chart after the break?

Looking back

Selling accelerated in response to weak economic indicators, pushing the market down to near Pivot S3, but recovery was limited and the direction was unclear

summary

The market continues to move at an intermediate level, not reaching the bottom of the downward wave following Powell's remarks

The one-way trend caused by the event did not continue, and the focus was on rebuilding the range.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, the market saw a sell-off due to the impact of the previous day, making it difficult for prices to rise.

In Europe, buying back was slow and the upside was capped at around 148.00.

NY fell further after the index and then closed with a reluctance to fall

Background/materials

Weak US data led to lower US interest rates and dollar selling pressure

No sudden risk aversion seen in stocks or credit, mainly due to currency reaction alone

Domestic factors were scarce, and speculation related to the Bank of Japan did not play a major role in the market.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

147.20-147.40 is seen as a potential lower limit, and the rebound is slow

148.10-148.30 has been the most recent barrier to recovery, and selling intensifies whenever the price fails to break above it.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart is moving within the post-Powell downtrend range, and the moving average is flat.

The consolidation above 148.50 creates room for an improvement in the underlying trend, and the break below 146.80 strengthens the view that downward pressure will continue.

Impressions

Even if you follow the initial movement of the event, it will not last long, so you need to be careful of fake breaks.

A cautious stance of waiting for a second round of selling and confirmation of the pullback appears to be effective.

Trading Impressions

Avoid widening of spreads and slippage immediately after the indicator and wait for the waveform to settle before entering

Profit taking is based on 20-30 pip increments, and stop loss is set outside the most recent high and low.

Checklist

Will the price continue to stay below 147.20?

Will the rebound around 148.10-148.30 be contained?

Will US interest rates continue to fall, leaving dollar-selling pressure to persist?

Looking back

Following weak US economic data, dollar selling dominated the market, but the price rose temporarily before falling back and forming an upper shadow.

summary

Although buying spread initially, profit-taking became dominant at higher prices, slowing growth.

The break's sustainability is unclear and the direction is still limited

As I waited for the next ingredient, the color of the range rebuilding intensified.

Today's price movements

During European trading hours, buying was dominant, and the price tested the previous day's highs.

During New York hours, the index rose further, but follow-up was weak and the market stalled.

Towards the end of the day, the market shifted to a more volatile trading pattern, with limited updates to the high and low prices.

Background/materials

Weak US data leads to lower US interest rates and dollar selling, boosting euro buying

There is little new strong support from Europe, and developments are led by US factors

Due to the weekend, short-term investors were quick to turn over, making it difficult for prices to continue to rise.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The upper shadow is noticeable as the price falls back after breaking out above the market, so the decision to break out is on hold.

Momentum slowed as sell-offs were seen at the recent highs

The pullback tends to be shallow, so it is necessary to check the strength of the rebound.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The upper limit of the uptrend after Powell's remarks was tested and rejected

The moving average is flat and the medium-term trend is flat.

Momentum indicators show signs of plateauing

Impressions

Event-driven upside was confirmed, but the driving force was limited

We should wait for the next Takayasu update, keeping in mind the possibility of a fake break.

Trading Impressions

Avoid chasing high prices, and short-term selling after the recovery stalls seems to be more effective.

While the push is shallow, even if you pick it up, the emphasis is on rotation and the size is suppressed

Beware of slippage and reversals when the indicator heads up

Checklist

Can it break above the upper wick high and settle?

Can the latest low be maintained and the price rise?

Will US interest rate movements signal continued dollar selling?

Looking back

Following weak US economic data, dollar selling prevailed and the price recovered most of the losses from the 2nd, but in the final stages it fell back due to profit-taking, resulting in a long upper shadow on the daily chart.

summary

Although there were attempts to move upward, the price rebounded from the high range and growth was sluggish.

The sustainability of the break could not be confirmed and the direction was still unclear.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the market continued to move slightly firm, following the trend of the previous day.

During European trading hours, buying was dominant and the market continued to test the upper limit gradually.

During New York trading, the stock price rose further after the index, but lost momentum at high levels and narrowed its gains towards the close.

Background/materials

US interest rates fell as major US indicators were weak, leading to dollar selling.

There was little news from the UK, and the market was driven by US indexes and interest rate trends.

Position unwinding and short-term profit-taking limited the gains at higher levels

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The daily chart closed with a long upper shadow, suggesting a slowdown in short-term upward momentum.

At the most recent highs, selling pressure was felt and the price was pushed back, making it difficult to rise.

The short-term moving average is flat, showing signs of re-establishing the range.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

It stalled near the upper limit of the mid-term range, and the upper limit of the band acted as resistance.

The mid-term trend is close to flat, so we are waiting for confirmation of a break before deciding on the direction.

Impressions

Although an event-driven upside was confirmed, the momentum for continued growth did not strengthen, and it seemed that caution against high prices prevailed.

The market appears to be prone to fluctuations until further information is released.

Trading Impressions

At higher prices, short-term selling after confirming a stall in the recovery was more effective than following up.

While the downtrend was shallow, the rebound was slow and it was realistic to rotate with modest profit margins.

Checklist

Whether the price will break out of the high range and whether there will be a breakout accompanied by volume

Will the price continue to rise after the pullback?

US interest rates and US headlines impact pound momentum

Looking back

Dollar selling following weak US data caused the market to lose momentum after rising, leaving a long upper shadow.

summary

The stock hit a new high this week, but the upward trend did not continue and some of the gains were erased.

The break has not been confirmed and the direction seems to be returning to the range.

Today's price movements

Tokyo market remains weak, with little movement

Buying intensified in Europe, pushing prices higher and hitting a new record high in early New York trading.

After the index, profit-taking dominated, reducing growth towards the close.

Background/materials

Weak US economic indicators lead to lower US interest rates and dollar selling

The tailwinds from China-related and commodity markets were limited and had little sustainability.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The formation of an upper shadow after a stalled breakout reaffirms the strength of the resistance at the upper end

The price remained above the most recent low, but follow-up buying was weak.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart tested the upper limit of the holding zone and fell back, but the trend is flat.

The next condition is that the closing price reaches a new high and settles with volume.

Impressions

Event-driven upside was confirmed, but momentum was lacking

Until the next news item comes out, the focus is likely to be on price fluctuations during the trade.

Trading Impressions

Avoid chasing high prices and short-term selling will be effective after the recovery stalls

Even if you pick up a shallow pullback, set your profit taking in small increments

Checklist

Can the price clearly break above the upper wick high and settle?

Will the daily chart hold above the breakpoint?

Will the direction of US interest rates and stocks support continued dollar selling?